- When troopers of the US 101st Airborne Division first
entered the Iraqi city of Najaf 17 months ago, they were greeted by huge
and welcoming crowds chanting "Die Saddam, die".
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- This weekend, the same streets are littered with the
debris from over a week's sustained and bloody combat. Empty shell cases
and burnt-out vehicles have replaced the flowers and flags of welcome.
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- A one-day truce to allow peace negotiations ended yesterday
with hostilities expected to resume at any moment. Few expect a lasting
calm in Iraq's Shia regions any time soon.
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- All over southern Iraq, Shia fighters have traded fire
with US, British and Italian troops for more than 10 days in the second
major uprising in six months by supporters of the firebrand cleric Moqtada
Al-Sadr.
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- Iraq's Shia population appears to be becoming increasingly
radicalised by the current rebellion, making it very difficult for the
US and its allies to portray it as the actions of a small, embittered minority.
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- Every time US marines and Iraqi troops loyal to the Baghdad
regime inch forward into the heart of Najaf, it seems to boost attendance
at demonstrations in the capital in support of Sadr.
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- This nightmare scenario is the last thing anyone imagined
in April last year at the high water mark of US power in Iraq. The long-oppressed
Shia were seen as America's 'Trojan Horse', proving a natural, pro-US majority
in post-Saddam Iraq.
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- Within hours of US troops entering Najaf, CIA agents
had approached Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the spiritual leader of Iraq's
Shia population, to try to bring him on side. Although initially stand-offish,
Sistani ordered his people to co-operate with the Americans.
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- This meant that when US troops pushed into Baghdad, Saddam's
troops were unable to set up defence lines in the huge Shia slums on the
outskirts of the capital. It appeared as if the Shia were happy just to
be no longer subservient to a Sunni-dominated regime in Baghdad.
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- US efforts to co-opt the Shia were intense, and they
even began flying exiled Shia clerics back into Iraq to build up support
for their occupation.
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- When one of these, Abdul Majid Khoei, was hacked to death
in Najaf by rival clerics, it was becoming clear Iraq's majority religious
community was not united and sections of it were unhappy with US occupation.
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- The well-respected Sistani started to engage with the
Americans over last summer as they began negotiations with Iraq's community
leaders about the formation of an interim government. His line was that
co-operating with the Americans would speed the rebuilding of the country
and bring forward the day when US troops would leave Iraq.
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- However, Sistani's 'long game' strategy was not welcomed
by all Shia, who were impatient for improvements to their living conditions
after being at the bottom of the pile under Saddam's regime.
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- As the long, hot summer of power cuts and water shortages
dragged on, Sistani's message of 'jam tomorrow' became difficult to sell
in some Shia neighbourhoods. The first signs of restlessness came as the
former US pro-consul, Paul Bremer, unveiled his first plan for the future
government of Iraq, which did not feature direct elections being held for
years.
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- It appeared the Americans were following the example
of the colonial British rule in the 1920s by setting up a Sunni-dominated
central government and again denying the Shia their rightful place in power.
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- Sistani then upped the ante considerably when he demanded
that Iraqis be able to elect their first government. This seriously rattled
Bremer and he rapidly had to redraw his plans.
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- He even had to call in the loathed UN to try to persuade
Sistani that an election was not practical until 2005 at the earliest.
The Grand Ayatollah reluctantly agreed to this compromise and gave his
blessing to the interim government that nominally assumed Iraq's sovereignty
in June.
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- The first six months of 2004 saw little improvement in
the living conditions in the huge Shia slums of Baghdad or in the impoverished
towns of southern Iraq, so when radical clerics allied to Sadr started
to ramp up their anti-US rhetoric they found a receptive audience.
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- Demands for rapid political change to ensure the Shia
received their rightful say in the future of Iraq and an equitable slice
of its wealth began to multiply.
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- Despite losing hundreds of men in the failed uprising
in April and many more last week, Sadr appears to have been able to replace
his lost fighters.
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- His strongest support appears to be in the 'Sadr city'
region of Baghdad and Najaf itself, as well as Al Amarah to the west. In
these areas popular support is widespread, but in Nasariyah and Basra to
the south his fighters have had less success, being unable to overpower
the pro-coalition Iraqi police and security forces.
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- In Nasariyah and Basra, Italian and British forces have
been able successfully to portray Sadr's militia as nihilist elements that
have no positive agenda for the future of Iraq.
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- The dilemma for the US forces attacking Najaf is that
the more damage they inflict on Sadr's forces and the Iman Ali mosque,
where they are taking refuge, the more likely the population of southern
Iraq will swing behind the cleric and his fighters.
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- There are clear signs in the deaths of two British soldiers,
including 21-year-old Black Watch private Marc Fern, from Glenrothes, who
were both killed by roadside bombs last week, that Sadr's forces are already
gaining ground.
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- Iraqi public opinion is fickle and heavy civilian casualties
or damage to the Iman Ali mosque could create a wave of support for Sadr
that could fatally destabilise the government in Baghdad.
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- In the last uprising in April, Sistani was a restraining
influence and ensured the revolt did not turn Sadr into a Shia hero. With
the Grand Ayatollah in London for medical treatment - he had successful
heart surgery yesterday - the field is open for Sadr to set the agenda.
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- His threats to blow up oil pipelines have closed the
southern oil fields, cutting 90% of all revenue to the Baghdad government
at a stroke. Attitudes are hardening on both sides. The belligerent comments
by National Security Adviser Mowaffaq al-Rubaie, after the collapse of
the peace talks yesterday, warning "military clearing operations"
would begin again soon, seem to have closed any negotiated solution to
the current revolt.
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