- WASHINGTON (CP) -- U.S.
President
George W. Bush was warned in two intelligence reports before he invaded
Iraq that his war could produce a chaotic guerrilla conflict involving
terrorists.
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- Yet, critics say, Mr. Bush didn't use the information
to alter his policy or plan for escalating bloodshed that's threatening
chances for democratic elections in Iraq in January.
-
- A senior U.S. intelligence official was also quoted this
week as saying Mr. Bush disregarded high-level warnings that a war could
dangerously intensify anti-American sentiment in the Muslim world.
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- ìThe President was very well aware of the
challenges
that we faced if the decision was made to go in and remove Saddam Hussein
from power,î White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Tuesday when
asked about the issue.
-
- ìHe's also very well aware of the consequences
of not acting to remove Saddam Hussein's regime and hold him accountable
in a post-Sept. 11th world.î
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- The big question is whether the latest evidence that
Mr. Bush ignored gloomy predictions of long-term violence will hurt his
standing with voters already deeply divided over the necessity of invading
Iraq and the $200-billion (U.S.) cost.
-
- The latest opinion surveys suggest it may not.
-
- Despite weeks of bad news from Iraq, where more than
1,000 Americans have died, polls suggest Mr. Bush is still beating
Democratic
challenger John Kerry by a comfortable margin on the question of who voters
trust to handle that conflict and the anti-terror war.
-
- Overall, Mr. Bush appears to have a small but significant
lead over Mr. Kerry. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Tuesday
suggested
Mr. Bush was leading Mr. Kerry 51 to 45 per cent.
-
- The reason, many observers say, lies with Mr. Bush's
effective portrayal of Mr. Kerry as a serial flip-flopper on the top issues
while retaining a tough stand of his own that relies on simple, consistent
messages.
-
- So far, it seems, Mr. Kerry has been unable to convince
Americans that he's strong enough to fix Iraq, even though many voters
clearly don't buy Mr. Bush's rosy predictions of freedom and democracy
in the Mideast country.
-
- Even some supporters admit Mr. Kerry's had trouble
presenting
a coherent picture of what he'd do differently, despite sharper attacks
on Mr. Bush of late, with promises to regain allied support for Iraq and
start withdrawing U.S. troops early in his presidency.
-
- Mr. Kerry's best chance to change fuzzy perceptions and
lingering doubts about his ability to keep Americans safe from terrorists
comes Thursday during the first presidential debate, which focuses on
foreign
policy.
-
- And he has some new fodder for his arguments.
-
- The New York Times reported Tuesday that Mr. Bush
received
two reports from the National Intelligence Council in January 2003 warning
an Iraq war would unleash terrorism and increase sympathy in the Islamic
world for terrorist objectives.
-
- The independent group of long-time intelligence
professionals
and outside academics also produced a classified report in July painting
a dubious picture of chances for success in Iraq.
-
- At best, it predicted chaos through 2005 and, at worst,
civil war.
-
- Another report from the Justice Department this week
said the FBI is seriously behind in translating recordings of potentially
valuable information about al-Qaeda terrorists.
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- Some of the tapes have been mistakenly erased.
-
- Despite evidence from a massive commission this summer
that the Bush administration missed clues that might have prevented the
Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the President has consistently received
high marks from Americans when it comes to his ability to protect
them.
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