- WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A
U.S. intelligence report before the Iraq war warned that an American invasion
could lead to rogue elements fighting the new Iraqi government and U.S.
forces, sources familiar with the report said on Tuesday.
-
- While the classified report did not call it an insurgency,
it raised the possibility of guerrilla warfare in a postwar Iraq, sources
said.
-
- Intelligence reports compiled in January 2003 predicted
that an American invasion would result in a divided Iraq prone to internal
violence, and increased sympathy in the Islamic world for some terrorist
objectives, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.
-
- The assessments were compiled from the views of various
intelligence agencies by the National Intelligence Council which reports
to the CIA director.
-
- There was a "big stack" of prewar intelligence
reports that said there was a high degree of possibility of insurgency
and unrest, and that "winning the peace will be harder than winning
the war," one source familiar with the reports said on condition of
anonymity.
-
- Another government source dismissed the significance
of prewar predictions of unrest in a postwar Iraq. "Anybody who studied
Iraq for a semester could say that was possible," the source said.
-
- Since U.S.-led forces invaded Iraq last year, a persistent
insurgency has developed, attacking American troops and Iraqis who are
trying to create a new government.
-
- "The president was very well aware of the challenges
that we faced if the decision was made to go and remove Saddam Hussein
from power," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said.
-
- "He's also very well aware of the consequences of
not acting to remove Saddam Hussein's regime and hold them accountable
in a post-September 11th world," he said.
-
- President Bush has downplayed a National Intelligence
Estimate prepared this summer which gave three outlooks for Iraq, the worst
being civil war.
-
- Bush first said that report was "guessing,"
and then said he should have instead called it an estimate. Bush also said
the report talked about possibilities, not probabilities.
-
- "That NIE on Iraq was not a prediction or a forecast.
The estimate deliberately did not assign probabilities to the scenarios
portrayed because Iraq's future is contingent upon the actions of its leaders
and the actions of the United States," a U.S. official said on condition
of anonymity.
-
- "The estimates provided the intelligence community's
best judgments about the challenges ahead," the official said. "It
didn't suggest in any way shape or form that Iraq's fate is sealed."
-
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