- The German finance minister, Hans Eichel, today warned
that global growth would be at risk if oil prices remained at their current
levels.
-
- "There will certainly be an effect on growth if
such a high oil price is sustained," he said. "We don't have
a supply problem at the moment, but one of a relatively strong speculative
element."
-
- Mr Eichel's comments - made a few days before Friday's
G7 meeting of the world's seven leading industrialised countries - came
as oil prices reached new highs after breaching the $50 (£27.5) mark.
-
- US light crude, which has gone up 55% this year, this
morning reached a high of $50.4, while Brent crude set a new peak at $46.8
a barrel before dropping back to $46.5, up 57 cents from yesterday.
-
- The impetus for the latest price rise came after Nigerian
rebels warned companies to stop production in the Niger delta before they
declared an all out war on October 1. The threat to supplies from Nigeria
- the world's seventh largest oil exporter - comes with producers already
at full stretch to meet the fastest growth in demand for 24 years.
-
- Companies working in the delta, the source of Nigeria's
2.3m barrels a day, have shrugged off the threat. Nigeria's top foreign
producer, Shell - which had already reportedly cut production because of
security concerns - said it saw no reason to stop producing.
-
- Italy's Agip, a unit of ENI, also said it did not plan
to halt output. Nevertheless, concern over Nigeria's supplies has added
to supply fears over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia.
-
- The Opec oil cartel, which controls more than half of
global crude exports, is producing around 30m barrels a day - production
levels not seen since the late 70s. Purnomo Yusgiantoro, the Opec president,
said the group was powerless to bring prices down.
-
- Opec raised production quotas with effect from November
1, but the move had little impact because it is already pumping well over
official limits. While the group says it has 1.5m barrels a day of spare
production capacity, the extra crude is not of the quality best suited
to transport fuels.
-
- "At the moment there's nothing we can do - Opec
has spare capacity. However, whatever we do, there is no sensitivity in
the market," Mr Purnomo, who is also Indonesia's oil minister, told
Reuters.
-
- A series of hurricanes in the oil-producing Gulf of Mexico
has accelerated the price, delaying shipments and disrupting offshore production
and refinery operations.
-
- Meanwhile, news last week that US crude stocks had fallen
for the last eight weeks and were running at a 13m barrel deficit compared
with a year ago - at a time when they should be building ahead of winter
- has also put prices under pressure.
-
- In real terms, stripping out inflation, oil prices are
now near the levels they reached during the Arab oil embargo of 1973-4.
However, they remain much lower than the record $80 annual average high
reached following the 1979 Iranian revolution.
-
- The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Claude
Mandil, said the surge in oil prices was not justified by supply and demand,
and there was no need for a release of emergency stocks.
-
- "It is still the case ... supply is more than demand,"
Mr Mandil said. "Of course there are some risks, and the market anticipates
that these risks could occur, but as long as these risks do not occur I
don't see why we would release the stocks."
-
- Like Mr Eichel, the EU energy commissioner, Loyola de
Palacio, said the rise in oil prices was mainly due to speculation in the
market and not a shortage of supply.
-
- "I think that Opec, in the actual moment, has not
a large margin of manoeuvre. I think they are trying really to keep their
targets because there is a lack of credibility of the Opec in this moment,"
she said. "It's not a problem of shortage in the market, it's a problem
related with speculation."
-
- Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited
2004 http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,11319,1314677,00.html
|
