- Having succeeded in getting the United States to invade
and occupy Iraq, Israel is now making efforts to instigate the Bush administration
to deal with the "Iranian threat".
-
- This week, a high-ranking Israeli official urged the
US "and the rest of the free world" to deal with the "Iranian
threat before it is too late".
-
- The remarks - reminiscent of the vitriolic propaganda
campaign against Iraq prior to the Anglo-American invasion of the Arab
country last year - coincided with the publication of an article by a leading
Israeli military historian Martin Van-Creveld, suggesting that Israeli
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon might very well order an attack on Iranian
nuclear plants.
-
- Writing in the Paris-based International Herald Tribune
on 21 August, Creveld opined that an Israeli or American (or a joint Israeli-American)
attack on Iranian nuclear plants may be carried out before the US November
elections.
-
- Israel reportedly possess a big arsenal of nuclear weapons
- estimates range from 100 to 400 weapons and bombs - along with efficient
delivery systems, including a fleet of long-range American-supplied F-15
fighter bombers as well as the medium range ballistic missile Yeriho.
-
- Justification
-
- Seeking to justify Tel Aviv's fixation on Iran, Israeli
leaders are citing three reasons why Iran ought to dispose of its alleged
would-be nuclear capability.
-
- "Israel simply wants to keep five hundred million
Muslims in this region under the mercy of its nuclear arsenal"
-
- Abdul Sattar Qassem,
- Political Science Professor,
- Najah University, Nablus,
-
- These include the Islamist nature of the Iranian regime,
Iran's refusal to recognise Israel and the Islamic republic's alleged support
of resistance groups fighting Israeli occupation and colonisation of the
West Bank, Gaza Strip and Arab East Jerusalem as well as part of Southern
Lebanon.
-
- However, according to Abdul Sattar Qassem, Professor
of Political Science at the Najah University in Nablus, these are only
"pretexts".
-
- "I believe that Israel is the most dangerous state
in the world today. Imagine what state the stability and security of the
world would be in if the messianic Jewish extremists of Gush Euminim reached
power in Israel and suddenly found themselves in control of Israel's massive
nuclear arsenal."
-
- Maintaining supremacy
-
- Qassem believes that the sole motive behind Israel's
currently evolving showdown with Iran is the Israeli determination to "maintain
its nuclear monopoly and strategic supremacy in this region".
-
- "Israel simply wants to keep five hundred million
Muslims in this region under the mercy of its nuclear arsenal. The appearance
of any possible strategic deterrence would upset Israel's strategic calculations
and might rectify the strategic balance of power in the Middle East."
-
- Creveld tacitly agrees, saying that "Iran would
be crazy" not to try developing a nuclear capability, given Israel's
aggrandising nuclear armaments, including the reported deployment of nuclear-equipped
submarines in the Mediterranean, the Arabian Sea and perhaps the Persian
Gulf.
-
-
- Israel reportedly makes nuclear
- weapons at its Dimona reactor
-
- "It all depends on Ariel Sharon - an old war-horse
who back in 1982 led Israel into a disastrous invasion of Lebanon. One
can only hope that this time he will think twice," the military historian
said.
-
- In the public relations battle, Israel argues that Iran
is dedicated to the destruction of the Jewish state, a claim that is much
less than true since Iran has said repeatedly that it would accept any
solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that would be acceptable to
the Palestinians.
-
- Furthermore, Iran could also make a similar argument,
quoting statements by Israeli ministers and officials calling for the extermination
of millions of Muslims.
-
- No easy target
-
- Israeli strategists recognise that attacking and destroying
Iranian nuclear installations would not be an easy job.
-
- These facilities, they admit, are widely dispersed, well-guarded
and housed in underground bunkers.
-
- "It wouldn't be as easy as the attack on the Iraqi
nuclear reactor," said Ephraim Ascolai, a nuclear weapons expert at
the Jafee Centre for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv, alluding to the Israeli
attack on the Osirak reactor in 1981.
-
- But in an interview with Aljazeera.net, Ascolai pointed
out that an Israeli attack on Iranian facilities was not unthinkable.
-
- He argued, however, that the "Iranian nuclear crisis"
was not an exclusively Israeli problem, but a world problem.
-
- "You see, this is not only between Israel and Iran.
The US, Australia and Europe have a vital interest in stopping Iran from
going nuclear," he said.
-
- Facing retaliation
-
- Israel faces a host of problems carrying out a successful
attack on Iranian nuclear plants, not the least of which being the would-be
expected Iranian retaliation.
-
-
- Iran Defence Minister Shamkhani
- has warned Israel of retaliation
-
- Iranian Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani has said on more
than one occasion that Tehran would carry out a massive retaliation if
Israel attacked Iran.
-
- In a recent interview with Aljazeera, Shamkhani warned
that his country would not sit down idly awaiting an Israeli strike and
would resort to a pre-emptive option against Israel and the US.
-
- "The concept of a pre-emptive strike is not an American
exclusivity," he said.
-
- True, Shamkhani's statements do have a large rhetorical
content since a non-nuclear Iran possesses no strategic deterrent against
a supposedly nuclear Israel, backed by its guardian-ally, the US.
-
- But it would be utterly naive to assume that the Iranians
would do nothing in the face of a flagrant and unprovoked Israeli or American
attack on their country.
-
- Leaving to US
-
- In addition, Israel would have serious logistical problems
carrying out an attack on the Iranian installations.
-
- Turkey, with its at least nominally Islamic government,
is unlikely to allow Israel to use its airspace to launch attacks on a
neighbouring Islamic country with which Ankara has been seeking to improve
and upgrade political and economic relations.
-
- Moreover, using the "Jordanian-Iraqi conduit"
would further enforce convictions, already salient among most Arabs and
Muslims, that the American invasion and occupation of Iraq was carried
out first and foremost to serve Israel's regional strategic interests.
-
-
-
- "I think the safest thing for Israel is to let the
Americans do it"
-
- Ira Sharkansky,
- Political Science Professor,
- Hebrew University of Jerusalem
-
-
- This, coupled with US brazen support of Israel's settlement
expansion in the West Bank, would likely bring American credibility in
this part of the world to an all-time low.
-
- In that light, Israel's most workable approach would
be to leave it to the Americans, according to Ira Sharkansky, Professor
of Political Science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
-
- "I think the safest thing for Israel is to let the
Americans do it," he told Aljazeera.net.
-
- And Israel, directly and through its powerful lobby in
Washington, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), has been
making strenuous efforts to get Washington to "do something"
about Iran.
-
- Repercussions
-
- It is not clear yet what the repercussions of the reported
FBI apprehension of an Israeli spy operating in the Pentagon will be for
Israel's efforts to get the US to attack Iran.
-
- The alleged spy - reportedly Larry Franklin, who worked
in the office of Undersecretary of Defence Douglas Feith - is said to have
passed sensitive documents pertaining to Iran, to Israel via two AIPAC
representatives.
-
- He reportedly had a close association with two Pentagon
Jewish officials, Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith, both of whom are strong
advocates of a tough American policy on Iran.
-
- "We will not see an immediate effect, but many American
officials ... would think twice before deciding to have too-close relations
with Israel"
-
- Israeli analyst Allan Pappie,
- Haifa University
-
- And Iran's alleged nuclear programme was said to be the
main focus of Franklin's activities.
-
- Israeli analyst Allan Pappie of Haifa University believes
the Franklin affair will deal "a very serious blow" to American-Israeli
relations at the intelligence level.
-
- In an interview with Aljazeera.net, Pappie said the affair
would have a long-term negative effect on US-Israeli relations and on the
way Israel and its supporters in the US are perceived.
-
- "We will not see an immediate effect, but many American
officials, especially at the intelligence and defence levels, would think
twice before deciding to have too-close relations with Israel."
-
- Tel Aviv's most immediate and serious concern, however,
may be whether the scandal will scuttle its efforts to persuade Washington
to attack Iran's nuclear sites.
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