- Dear Michael Rupert,
-
- I loved your recent address to the Commonwealth
Institute.
I am a geologist who is, or has been, involved in both oil-gas, coal, and
metal exploration over some 35 years. Have been sending your excellent
lecture around my industry geologist mates with conflicting results.
-
- My old college Shell oil mates ALL buy the PEAK OIL is
near AND the END IS NIGH thesis whilst some others do not - see attached
article below re Saudi Aramco reserves as one example provided by the do
NOT element .
-
- Could the Saudi - US Relations group be lying - do you
have contradictory info ???
-
- I have noted that over the last +10 years or so world
oil exploration expenditures have been way down - across the industry (ie
Juniors AND Majors) - whilst worldwide many governments have been taking
potential exploration acreage out of the loop = denying access to explorers
to reasonably good areas with potential for oil discovery. This is
exhibited
in onshore AND offshore OZ where pre-1984 you could peg any vacant block
to explore - now you can only bid for those block packages being offered
by the government. Many interesting areas are currently off limitsThis
is said to be a policy designed to focus limited exploration dollars BUT
it restricts exploration to those areas deemed explorable by some
government
mandarin and HAS removed VERY large acreages from the prospectors
choice.
-
- Thus it looks to me as if there might have been a VERY
deliberate downturn pressure on the rate of oil exploration since over
the last decade SOMEONE had to apply serious political and bureaucratic
pressure to close off these areas of oil discovery potential ???
-
- Note however that during much of this time oil was very
cheap (~US$ 20/barrel) and the incentive to explore for it was consequently
very low - PLUS finding high risk exploration money has been more difficult
than finding new oil fields !!! You might recall when investment money
went chasing South Sea bubbles (made of electrons in the high tech internet
web based dot com revolution version of musical chairs), whilst the
exploration
industry experienced a nuclear winter and many fine geo-scientists were
laid off or went bankrupt.
-
- I personally made a fortune the last time the Rockefeller
dominated oil industry spun the world into believing that THE END WAS NIGH.
This was in the late 1970's early 1980' when I made very good money in
energy exploration due to the sudden vast increase in exploration funding.
I am a tad suspicious that the latest oil industry gambit re PEAK OIL etc
is being deliberately engineered as part of a media spin to force world
perception into accepting high pump pricesespecially in light of things
like the Aramco Oil articles below.
-
- Personally I do not believe we have yet really exhausted
known oil field production expansion nor even approached proper testing
of ALL the potential Mega Oil Field environments on this planet (a
conceptual
explorationist viewpoint) BUT if you can prove your logic to me I will
genuinely reconsider. One of my old London Royal School of Mines Professors
wrote a fascinating book in the 1960's pointing out that there would have
been a glut of world oil supply since World War 2 - if certain civil wars
etc had not actively reduced both the production flow and/or the
exploration
of potential basins .
-
- Today we do seem to be moving into an oil asset
acquisition
phase of international claim jumping guided by a select few USA-UK-OZ
insiders.
Obviously Bush, Blair, and Howard are just the public face of a seriously
powerful cabal that wants to control World Oil into the future.
-
- The now somewhat distant Falklands war was fought over
who owns the offshore oil rights there - depends who you believe as to
who was the claim jumper and who was the victim !!!. The East Timor
scenario
is another more recent example of a major Oil Field - The offshore Timor
Gap oil-gas field - being claim jumped by threat of force of arms - eg.
by OZ-UN forces etc. - from Indonesia - all be it under the familiar guise
of "bringing democracy". Yet now the East Timorese are upset
with OZ over the Timor Gap boundary definition (on the new maps most of
the oil field has marched into OZ sea floor country) AND with the very
lopsided oil agreements being forced (sign this or no aid funding boys)
onto them by the OZ government on behalf of major US oil companies - with
strong connections to Cheney. Many current wars and/or internal strife
scenarios across the planet today seem to have similar "raison de
etre" re control of known or potential oil rich areas. But we are
now seeing the war against terrorism as the overt face justification being
spun in the media to support such claim jumping.
-
- One might therefore predict serious insurrection will
unfold soon in Saudi Arabia with the US moving in to hold the oil fields
whilst civil war unfolds in their cities to hold the natives at bay ???
Similarly one might expect Iran to start unraveling or be invaded to
suppress
yet more WMD or whatever. Obviously the western Sudanese basin will soon
form a case requiring yet more UN intervention to protect poor black
Africans
from Janjaweed Arabs. Hopefully no one will notice who ends up with a deal
on the oil rights there Pity about Rwanda but no oil = no UN
interest.
-
- Whether or not these BIG OIL bastards believe in Peak
Oil or not they are going to use it (and anything else they can think of)
as an argument to persuade their captive mercenary populations and armies
to do the international claim jumping. To me it looks like asset raiding
- pure and simple. In the case of the USA it's the Plains Indian Wars all
over again - just exported to foreign lands. Hitler was motivated by
Geopolitical
considerations. Cheney obviously is similarly motivated. Bush is in Fairy
Land and would almost certainly not know the meaning of geopolitical -
after all it is quite a long word .But yet again feed him enough pretzels
and he might understand ???
-
- To get at the real truth re existing oil production
potential
around 2007-8 and proven world oil-gas resources and future potential for
new mega discoveries (plus ideas on the truth re the origin of oil - ie
squashed bugs or deep Mantle degassing etc.) one would have to run a
symposium
of INDEPENDENT OIL EXPLORERS AND PRODUCERS - excluding those from within
Rockefeller Inc. (ie The Seven Sisters boys and by cross contamination
many of your North American oil personnel). It might come to some rather
interesting conclusions
-
- Any Comments ???????????
-
- Good Luck with FTW and your quest re 911 etc.
-
- Love to see you tour OZ ???
-
- It is my fervent wish that those responsible for this
current world debacle end up in front of a firing squad - ASAP.
-
- Best Regards,
-
- Harry Mason
-
-
-
-
- Dear Patrick,
-
- A careful study of the following will prove useful for
those interested in Mr. Rupert's theories. From my own knowledge and
experience
of this part of the world, I can affirm that these reserves are certainly
conservative. I am aware of very big fields in the Sudan for example, and
can give details if asked, that have never even been exploited.
-
- Nick.
-
- SAUDI-US RELATIONS INFORMATION SERVICE
-
- Saudi Arabia's Oil Reserves - Overview
-
- Future of Global Oil Supply: Saudi Arabia A Conference
Hosted at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Feb. 24,
2004
-
- NOTE: This is the summary of Mahmoud Abdul-Baqi and
Nansen
Saleri's presentations which were given to the CSIS in Washington on
February
24, 2004
-
- Global Outlook:
-
- World energy demand is expected to increase at an annual
rate of 1% to 2% over the next 15 years, reaching an annual demand of 107
million barrels per day by 2020, partly as an anticipated consequence of
growth in China, India and other South East Asian economies.
-
- Worldwide oil reserves at year-end 2002 stand at 1050
billion barrels, of which 65% (or 686 billion barrels) is in the Middle
East, with Saudi Arabia being the principal player. The Middle East
contributes
about a third of total world production, has a reserves-to-production life
of 92 years and is expected to play a pre-eminent role in the global energy
theater.
-
- Overview of Upstream Operations:
-
- Saudi Aramco's current operations encompass 1.5 million
square kilometers, comprising 85 fields, 320 reservoirs and 25% of world
oil reserves. Current daily production capability stands at 10 million
barrels of crude oil and 9.6 billion cubic feet of gas. The Company's
strategy
calls for an annual reserves replacement of its crude production, while
adding 5 trillion cubic feet gas reserves through an integrated
exploration,
delineation and development program.
-
- Reserves and Future Potential:
-
- Saudi Aramco's oil and gas reserves conform to industry
standards. Reserves attributable to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) processes
are excluded, underscoring the conservative nature of the Company's reserves. Year-end 2003 proved oil reserves totaled 260 billion barrels. Incrementa
l
probable and possible reserves (over and above the 260 billion barrels)
are estimated to be 103 billion barrels. Exploration, delineation and
development
efforts have increased Saudi Aramco's oil initially in place from 600 to
700 billion barrels during the past 20 years. Vast unexplored acreage
exists
in the Rub' al Khali desert region, the northern basin (along the border
with Iraq) and the offshore Red Sea Basin. US Geological Survey 2000
projections
point to additional recoverable oil resources ranging from 29 to 161
billion
barrels to be discovered in Saudi Arabia by 2025. The Company projects
its oil initially in place volume to reach 900 billion barrels by the same
date.
-
- Reservoir Development and Management Practices:
-
- The stewardship of Saudi Arabia's hydrocarbon reserves
is Saudi Aramco's paramount objective. The Company develops and manages
its rich portfolio of hydrocarbon reserves, employing state-of-the-art
technological resources, best-in-class reservoir management practices and
a world-class professional workforce. The emphasis is on long-term
production
sustainability and maximum recovery.
-
- Sophisticated diagnostic capabilities (empowered by
numerically-intensive
computational models) and comprehensive reservoir surveillance programs
are two key enablers assuring high accuracy field production forecasts,
superior operational efficiency and optimal reservoir development
strategies.
-
- Synopsis:
-
- Saudi Aramco's proved oil reserves of 260 billion
barrels,
represents a conservative figure, by established industry (SPE/WPC/AAPG)
standards. Significant upward potential for reserves additions exists.
Oil-focused exploration and delineation efforts, application of EOR
processes
and continual emphasis on existing and future technologies - custom-fit
to the Company's reservoir portfolio - will certainly engender a major
expansion in Saudi Aramco's reserves base in the decades ahead,
commensurate
with global market conditions and requirements.
-
- The Company is committed to maintaining its pre-eminent
role as a reliable, cost-effective and environmentally friendly global
oil supplier. If called upon, sustained daily crude production levels of
10, 12 and 15 million barrels per day can be readily maintained through
2054 and beyond. Saudi Aramco has the financial, organizational and
technical
capabilities to do so.
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