- Today is another day about to go down in infamy. If
it does, the reason will be simple: Congress, despite the objections of
most Americans, will have let assault weapons back on the street. If the
ban on assault weapons expires, it will be because the Congress did not
pass legislation to keep it in effect.
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- Basically, the wrong arguments have been raised about
the expiration of this ban. Gun control advocates see the demise or
renewal
of this law as a litmus test of American support for gun control in one
of the major countries where such controls hardly exist. But what is mostly
visible in public reaction to the deadline is a massive indifference. Gun
lobbyists see the issue as just another demonstration of the desire of
uninformed Americans to keep poor beleaguered and threatened citizens from
having the tools to defend themselves. But the time when guns were needed
for self-defense in this country passed a long time ago for all but the
most paranoid.
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- The only good news in this story is John Kerry strongly
opposes the expiration of the ban. He will need to fight vigorously for
retention today for his view to have any effect. President Bush has not
taken a clear position on the issue, meaning his intent is to let the day
go by without lifting a finger to keep the ban in place. Both candidates
may see it as a factor in the flow of undecided votes, therefore, a mood
setter that might help one or the other get elected. By such slender
threads
hangs future mayhem.
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- The expiration of this ban, and the flow of such weapons
to American streets, target ranges, private collections, and militia
groups,
is likely to marginally change the crime rates in American cities and its
rural retreats. That is so, because the people in this country who think
they need a gun to defend themselves or commit a crime already have at
last one. The odds are that such people have several, given that there
are an estimated 40 million shotguns in the United States. Hardly a small
town is without its gun shop. Any census of handguns has been moving upward
daily since the right to own and to carry one was recognized a few years
ago.
-
- Thus, hardly a ripple in violence in the United States
will result from the expiration of the ban. The real problem will be
seepage
into the developing world. Right now US weapons exports are regulated,
but the flow through official channels to other governments makes the US
the largest world exporter. Leakage from that flow is already out of
control.
The ban on assault weapons at home has limited private outflows to foreign
enthusiasts, terrorist groups, and mercenaries. But, once the ban expires,
manufacturers can sell assault weapons to private American citizens, no
questions asked. American citizens can buy such weapons in any number over
a period of time without causing comment from gun dealers who are happy
to have the business. Manufacturers are reportedly already gearing up to
meet this demand.
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- As rapidly as demand and an underground distribution
system to meet it can respond, the market for assault weapons by groups
in at least fifty countries will quietly be augmented by purchases through
private channels. The illicit pool of small arms in the world is already
hair-raising, but the demand is insatiable.
-
- Look at the Sudan, immediately at genocide of more than
half a million people. Look at West Africa and the bloody insurgencies
in a dozen countries. Look at Central Africa and the tumult in the Congo.
With hundreds of thousands of people killed and many more maimed or
injured,
be aware that the preferred weapons of this massive human destruction were
portable: hand guns, hunting rifles, shotguns, and assault weapons.
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- So get ready for the bloody picnic. Pick your spot for
an armed insurgency in any part of the world. Through sales of drugs,
armed robbery, kidnapping, and extortion, groups will find the money to
tap this new source of assault weapons. It will be a simple smuggling
operation, hardly any complications. With a simple failure to press the
vote button to say no to the expiration of this ban, the Congress of the
United States will have legally put on the market an inexhaustible supply
of the most common weapons of mass destruction on the planet.
-
- If you object to this, call your Congressman and Senator
and say so, now.
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- The writer is a retired Senior Foreign Service Officer
of the US Department of State.
- He will welcome comment at wecanstopit@charter.net
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