- Driving down Michigan Avenue in Dearborn a woman in a
chador takes her hand off the steering wheel of her SUV to light a Marlboro.
Through the half-open window she exhales smoke and Lebanese pop music.
As she turns into Dunkin' Donuts her bumper reveals a frayed sticker: Vote
Kerry/Edwards.
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- Dearborn, a suburb of Detroit, is the hub of Arab America.
When the car plants of the Motor City had attracted all the labour they
could from African-Americans fleeing tyranny and poverty in the deep south,
they went for those fleeing poverty and war from the global south.
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- And just as African-Americans brought gospel and turned
it into Motown, so Arab-Americans are blending the culture of the old country
with that of their new home.
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- You will find more Arab-Americans in California and New
York, but you will not find a greater concentration of them than here.
One in three people in Dearborn is of Arab origin; Detroit is the biggest
Iraqi city outside Iraq.
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- It is by no means typical. "Unlike anywhere else
in America, you could live your whole life in Dearborn in an Arab-American
bubble," says Jennifer Salan of the Arab American Institute (AAI).
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- But, where electoral politics are concerned, it is important.
The latest tracking poll shows the Democrats leading by four percentage
points in the swing state of Michigan; Arab-Americans comprise 5% of the
state's vote.
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- By luck rather than design Arab-Americans are a sizeable
force in many swing states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. In
a third of the states needed to win the electoral college, Arab-Americans
make up more than the gaps between the two parties.
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- What is more they are up for grabs. In 2000 they backed
George Bush. This year they are leaning half-heartedly towards his Democratic
challenger, John Kerry. In a close race which will be decided in just a
few places, Arab-Americans are a rare and precious phenomenon: a swing
constituency in several swing states.
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- "In an election this close any small group makes
a difference and this is one of them," says James Zogby, the head
of the AAI. "The way the polls look now will represent about 200,000
votes going from Republican to Democrat. What a party loses in one place
they have to pick up somewhere else."
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- "It's not a community that any party has a lock
on," says Ismael Ahmed, the executive director of Access, the biggest
Arab-American social services agency in the country, which is based in
Dearborn. "Especially a community like this one where 60% weren't
born here. We're not really committed to either party."
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- And so it was that the Arab American Political Action
Committee (Aapac) endorsed Mr Bush in 2000, leftwing campaigner Dennis
Kucinich in the Democratic primaries, and Mr Kerry for president.
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- "We were motivated when we backed Bush and we are
motivated now," says Osama Sablini, Aapac's chairman and publisher
of the Arab American newspaper, who backed Mr Bush four years ago. "The
Bush administration has been a major disappointment to this community and
we cannot afford four more years of this."
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- To understand their initial enthusiasm for Mr Bush we
must go back to the presidential debate in St Louis four years ago, when
Mr Bush opposed the profiling of Arab-Americans. "Arab-Americans are
racially profiled on what's called secret evidence," he said. "People
are stopped. And we've got to do something about that." That was "not
the American way", he said.
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- "You have to ask yourself why it took such a small
thing to secure our votes," says Jumana Judeh, vice-chair of the Arab
American Chamber of Commerce, who wanted to endorse Al Gore in 2000.
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- "Someone recognised our votes. Someone noticed us.
We're the new kid on the block and the new kid is going to get kicked around
the block until they stick up for themselves and then people move on to
someone else."
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- Add to that the fact that Mr Gore's running mate, Joseph
Lieberman, was pro-Israel, and the Republicans looked to many like the
best bet.
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- "A lot were opposed because he was so pro-Israel
and then some were against him because he was Jewish and they thought he
couldn't see beyond that," says Ms Judeh.
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- On polling day Mr Bush beat Mr Gore by 45% to 38% while
the independent candidate, Ralph Nader (who is of Lebanese descent), received
13%.
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- Then came September 11. While none of the hijackers had
American citizenship and Dearborn is home to few Saudis, the community
felt besieged. Under Mr Bush not only profiling, but detentions, investigations
and deportations became the American way for Arab-Americans.
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- "We were targeted in our houses, in our bank accounts,
in charities and in our in our mosques," says Zouhair Abdelhak, a
Democrat supporter who owns a jewellery shop.
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- "It was a total sea change," says Mr Ahmed.
"It raised us from below the radar to a focused-on group and put us
literally physically at risk. Hate crimes went up five-fold. At the same
time we went to war with Afghanistan and Iraq. And we were told that this
is a war without end. All of that makes Arab-Americans feel at risk."
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- With a sizeable proportion of Iraqi Shias in the the
community, there was a split over removing Saddam Hussein by force. But
those rifts have been mended by opposition to the manner in which the occupation
has been handled.
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- Accusing Mr Bush of betrayal, the Arab- American community
started shopping around for another candidate.
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- Most backed Howard Dean in the Democratic primaries.
When Mr Kerry emerged the winner they went with him.
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- Initially they were enthusiastic. A poll of Arab-Americans
by the AAI taken in Michigan, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania in July showed
Mr Kerry leading Mr Bush by 54% to 24% with Mr Nader on 13%. By last month
Mr Kerry's lead had almost halved, down from 30 points to 18, with a large
number of undecideds. Some fear Mr Kerry could slide even further.
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- "There will be a ceiling for the president,"
says Mr Zogby. "And I think he's reached it. The question is do the
rest vote for Kerry or not vote at all. Many of those in the undecided
or even in the Nader category would switch to the Democrats, but have not
yet found a reason to do so."
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- Disappointed
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- On Saturday, when the Democratic vice-presidential candidate,
John Edwards, came to Detroit, Ms Judeh went to the gym. Earlier in the
week, during the vice- presidential debate, Mr Edwards was asked: "What
would your administration do to try to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict?"
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- Mr Edwards said: "First, the Israeli people not
only have the right to defend themselves, they should defend themselves.
They have an obligation to defend themselves. What are the Israeli people
supposed to do? How can they continue to watch Israeli children killed
by suicide bombers, killed by terrorists?"
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- In a week in which Israel launched its bloodiest incursion
into Gaza in four years, he did not mention Palestine once. "After
I heard that I thought I'm not going to go out and cheer for him,"
says Ms Judeh, who attended the Democratic national convention this year.
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- "I was a loyal Democrat. I distributed the tickets.
But I wasn't going to go. We don't expect them to be pro-Palestinian. But
they won't even say 'We support a just peace in the Middle East'."
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- So while there is much loathing for Mr Bush, there is
little love, as yet, for Mr Kerry.
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- "They are not giving us anything to work with at
a grassroots level," says Fay Beydoun, who runs the AAI's branch in
Michigan. "People are very anti-Bush but we need to motivate them
to go out and vote for Kerry and Edwards and they don't make it easy."
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- In a community where alienation from the mainstream is
pervasive, Republicans tell a similar story, particularly with regard to
the Middle East and civil liberties.
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- "We disagree with the administration on them not
dealing with the Palestinian leadership," says Jawad Allawi, a Republican
businessman. "You shouldn't give the other side a passport to kill
people because those people have a bad leader... But I don't think any
administration in the last 50 years has been even-handed in the region."
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- Muhannad Haimour, who works for Access and recently founded
a newspaper, Forum and Link, believes the community should have held out
for more concrete promises before giving its endorsement. "The community
should have said, 'No you are not going to take our vote for granted'.
If we have to throw our votes away then so be it. Instead, we're just going
to just give our votes to them. If I vote at all I will vote for Nader
as a protest," he says.
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- An hour later he is challenged as to what he will do
if wakes up to find Mr Bush has won by one vote.
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- "Well, I know, in the end I will vote for Kerry.
I won't want to. Until the day of the election I will protest.
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- "But when I get into the booth I think I will have
to because the prospect of four more years of Bush is more than we can
take."
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- Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited
2004 http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/story/0,13918,1328800,00.html
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