- Israel could one day become a "pariah state"
like apartheid-era South Africa. It also looks set to collide with a European
Union that is growing in power and influence.
-
- These are some of the possible outcomes if the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict is not resolved, reports a confidential, but leaked to the media,
25-page ten-year forecast written by the Israeli Foreign Ministry's Center
for Public Research.
-
- The report, which contains no recommendations and was
written in August of 2004, says it's important to improve relations with
Europe since a European Union growing in power and influence would mean
that Israel's main political partner, the United States, would probably
diminish in international stature.
-
- 'It is a prognosis of the general outline of the international
environment in the future... it is us looking into the crystal ball,' the
report's author said. 'Everyone is aware of the importance of the relations
with Europe.'
-
- Reuters reported Thursday that Israel's relationship
with the EU has been strained for a long time over what Israel sees as
EU favoritism toward the Palestinians, and anti-Semitism in Europe. That
relationship has grown worse, the Associated Press reported Thursday, as
the EU has strongly criticized Israeli military action against the Palestinians
and the construction of what Israel calls a security barrier in the West
Bank.
-
- "Regarding the Middle East peace process and our
relations with Israel and the Palestinians, there is no doubt that the
role of the EU has increased," said Christina Gallach, a spokeswoman
for EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana. The EU says Israel's planned
withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005 must be followed by major troop
withdrawals in the West Bank, and pave the way for Palestinian statehood.
"None of this is exactly what the Israelis want to hear, but we have
to say it," Ms. Gallach said.
-
- In an interview with Radio Netherlands about the report,
Zalman Shoval, a former Israeli ambassador to the US and a foreign policy
advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, said he is not sure if
Mr. Sharon shares the Foreign Ministry's concerns about Israel's future,
but that most Israelis are "concerned" about developments in
Europe.
-
- Some concerns which we have [are] that it is convenient
ñ and the Jewish people know something about that from its history
ñ to make us responsible for things which really have nothing to
do with us at all. We will have to fight with that, but I must say quite
frankly that we have good reason to rely much more on the leader of the
free world, America, than on some of these political machinations in Europe.
-
- Sharon threatened to freeze the EU out of the Middle
East peacemaking process in July when the EU backed a UN General Assembly
resolution demanding that Israel heed a World Court ruling calling on it
to tear down its West Bank barrier.
-
- Columnist Caroline Glick of the Jerusalem Post wonders
if Sharon's Gaza disengagement plan, which lacks the support of many in
his own party but does have the support of the broader Israeli public,
is not an attempt to buy "an insurance policy" with the EU, a
position Ms. Glick says was supported by an interview key Sharon's advisor,
Dov Weinsglass, recently gave with the Israeli newspaper, Ha'aretz.
-
- According to Weisglass, the downward trend in Europe's
view of Israel will be halted by Sharon's withdrawal plan from the Gaza
Strip and northern Samaria. By Weisglass's telling, the need to mollify
and moderate Europe's view of Israel is one of the main reasons that Sharon
chose the radical approach of withdrawal without an agreement and in the
midst of war. In his words, the purpose of the withdrawal plan is to enable
the US 'to go to the seething and simmering international community and
say to them, "What do you want [from Israel]?."'
-
- Meanwhile, Sharon announced he was scaling back the Israeli
military offensive in the Gaza Strip after the Israeli Army warned that
staying longer than it already has in "crowded Palestinian areas"
was too risky. Al Jazeera reports Friday that the situation in the Gaza
Strip has created a dilemma for Sharon: continued Palestinian rocket attacks
from the area into Israel undermines his plan for a withdrawal from Gaza,
but the heavy Palestinian civilian casualties incurred during the 17-day
offensive have drawn widespread international condemnation.
-
- The Israeli action comes as an 18-page United Nation
report accuses Israel of severe human rights violations, including "massive
and wanton destruction" of property in Gaza. The report, compiled
by UN representative for human rights John Dugard, said that while some
of Israel's actions could be explained by security concerns, most could
not. The report will be presented to the UN General Assembly later this
month, and was prepared before the latest Israeli actions in Gaza.
-
- The Israeli government criticized the report saying it
"has nothing to contribute to any serious discussion about finding
the right balance between security and human rights."
-
- Finally, Ha'aretz reports that Israel is the only country
in a survey of ten nations that would like to see US President George Bush
re-elected. It was also the only country in the survey where the favorable
opinion of the US improved in recent months, rather than deteriorated,
and the only country where the war in Iraq was not considered a mistake.
The joint poll was taken by 10 newspapers worldwide; other countries surveyed
included coalition allies Britain and Australia, as well as Canada, Mexico,
Russia, Japan, Korea, Spain and France.
-
- Copyright © 2004 The Christian Science Monitor.
All rights reserved. http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1015/dailyUpdate.html
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