- So, what do we actually see when comparing exit polls
with actual results? There is skew - but ONLY in states which the
Republicans
had previously stated to be target states in play. The skew is in the same
direction every time; that is to say in favor of Bush. The exit poll
results
are not scattered about the mean as the alternative theory predicts. They
are all on the Kerry side of the vote counts as issued by the states except
for a hand full of states which hit amazingly close to the exit poll
figures.
-
- Here are the figures. They list the four contemporaneous
and uncorrected exit polls. Kerry is listed first and Bush second in each
pair of figures.
-
- 'Published' is the figure presented as the official vote
count as of 10.00 am EST on 11/3/04, the morning after...
-
- ARIZONA
- Poll one 45-55
- Final poll 45-55
- ...Published 44-55
-
- COLORADO
- Poll one 48-51
- 2nd poll 48-50
- 3rd poll 46-53
- ...Published 46-53
-
- LOUISIANA
- Poll one 42-57
- Final poll 43-56
- ...Published 42-57
-
- MICHIGAN
- Poll one 51-48
- ...Published 51-48
-
- IOWA
- Poll one 49-49
- 3rd poll 50-48
- Final poll 49-49
- ...Published 49-50
-
- NEW MEXICO
- Poll one 50-48
- 2nd poll 50-48
- 3rd poll 50-48
- Final poll 50-49
- ...Published 49-50
-
- MAINE
- 3rd poll 55-44
- ...Published 53-45
-
- NEVADA
- 3rd poll 48-49
- ...Published 48-51
-
- ARKANSAS
- 3rd poll 45-54
- ...Published 45-54
-
- MISSOURI
- Final poll 46-54
- ...Published 46-53
-
- These tracking polls were right where you would expect
them to be and within the margin of error. However, if we look at some
other states, the figures are beyond curious. Either the exit polls were
wrong or the vote count is wrong:
-
- WISCONSIN
- Poll one 52-48
- 3rd poll 51-46
- Final poll 52-47
- ...Published 50-49
-
- PENNSYLVANIA
- Poll one 60-40
- 3rd poll 54-45
- Final poll 53-46
- ...Published 51-49
-
- OHIO
- Poll one 52-48
- 2nd poll 50-49
- 3rd poll 50-49
- Final poll 51-49
- ...Published 49-51
-
- FLORIDA
- Poll one 51-48
- 2nd poll 50-49
- 3rd poll 50-49
- Final poll 51-49
- ...Published 47-52
-
- MINNESOTA
- Poll one 58-40
- 3rd poll 58-40
- Final poll 54-44
- ...Published 51-48
-
- NEW HAMPSHIRE
- Poll one 57-41
- 3rd poll 58-41
- ...Published 50-49
-
- NORTH CAROLINA
- Poll one
- 3rd poll 49-51
- Final poll 48-52
- ...Published 43-56
-
- Taking the figures and measuring the size and direction
of the poll to supposed vote count discrepancy, we find the variance
between
the exit poll and the final result:
-
- Wisconsin: Bush plus 4%
- Pennsylvania: Bush plus 5%
- Ohio: Bush plus 4%
- Florida: Bush plus 7%
- Minnesota: Bush plus 7%
- New Hampshire: Bush plus 15%
- North Carolina: Bush plus 9%.
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