- China's military has launched the first of a new class
of ballistic missile submarines in what defense officials view as a major
step forward in Beijing's strategic weapons program.
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- The new 094-class submarine was launched in late
July and when fully operational in the next year or two will be the first
submarine to carry the underwater-launched version of China's new DF-31
missile, according to defense officials.
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- "When fully operational, it will represent a
more modern, more capable missile platform," said one official familiar
with reports of the new submarine.
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- A second intelligence official said building submarines
is a top priority of the Chinese, and the Type 094 will be "China's
first truly intercontinental strategic nuclear delivery system."
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- The new Type 094 was spotted by U.S. intelligence
agencies at the Huludao shipyard, located on the coast of Bohai Bay, some
250 miles northwest of Beijing.
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- The submarine is in the early stages of being outfitted
and is not yet equipped with new JL-2 submarine-launched nuclear missiles.
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- The submarine is believed to be based largely on
Russian nuclear submarine technology, the officials said.
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- A CIA report made public last week stated that Russia
was a major supplier of technology to China's naval nuclear propulsion
programs.
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- The launching of the new missile submarine appears
ahead of schedule. A Pentagon report on Chinese military power made public
in May stated that the new Chinese missile submarine would not be deployed
until around 2010.
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- A Defense Intelligence Agency report produced in
1999 and labeled "secret" stated that the new submarine is part
of a program by China of "modernizing and expanding its missile force."
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- "Mobile, solid-fuel missiles and a new ballistic
missile submarine will improve the force's ability to survive a first strike,"
the report said, "while more launchers, on-board penetration aids,
and possibly multiple warheads will improve its ability to penetrate missile
defenses."
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- The DIA report stated that China is expected to field
one new ballistic missile submarine by 2020.
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- A Chinese Embassy spokesman had no immediate comment.
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- In a related development, U.S. intelligence officials
said the Chinese suffered a setback in their JL-2 missile program when
a test flight of the JL-2 missile failed over the summer.
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- The JL-2 missile program was delayed by the test
failure but is continuing to be developed, the officials said. China conducted
tests of the JL-2 in 2002 and last year.
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- Richard Fisher, vice president of the Washington-based
International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the launch of the new
missile submarine is "an astounding development."
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- "The 094 has followed 093 development far more
rapidly than the assessments in the annual Pentagon reports on the PLA,"
Mr. Fisher said, referring to the China's People's Liberation Army.
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- China also recently launched a new attack submarine
known as the Type 093. Additionally, U.S. intelligence agencies were surprised
by China's disclosure in July of a third new type of submarine known as
the Yuan-class, a diesel-electric attack submarine.
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- "In the very near future, China will have a
secure, second-strike nuclear attack capability that it will use to bolster
its nuclear strategy of seeking to deter the United States from aiding
Taiwan after a PLA attack," Mr. Fisher said.
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- Mr. Fisher said the JL-2 likely will have multiple
warheads.
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- The new submarine will make it more difficult for
the U.S. military to take part in a defense of Taiwan because of the threat
of nuclear retaliation, he said.
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- The Pentagon has deployed a new missile defense system,
but a spokesman for the Missile Defense Agency has said the current interceptor
system is designed to stop a long-range North Korean missile, but not an
attack from Chinese or Russian missiles.
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- A 1999 report by the House Select Committee on U.S.
National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the People's Republic
of China stated that the new missile submarine will likely benefit from
stolen U.S. nuclear warhead designs.
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- The report stated that the JL-2 is expected to have
a longer range than the DF-31 and that 16 JL-2s will be deployed on the
new submarine.
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- The range of the JL-2 is estimated to be about 7,500
miles, enough "to strike targets throughout the United States,"
the report said.
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- "Instead of venturing into the open ocean to
attack the United States, the Type 094-class submarines could remain near
[Chinese] waters, protected by the [People's Liberation Army,] Navy and
Air Force," the report said.
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- The new submarine will be a major improvement over
China's current ballistic missile submarine known as the Xia, which is
equipped with medium-range missiles.
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- The current Xia submarine is considered so noisy
to underwater detection gear that its chances of surviving attack submarine
strikes in ocean waters are limited.
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