- The Pentagon's announcement this week that it will increase
the number of U.S. troops in Iraq to 150,000 to provide more security for
the Jan. 30 national election highlights a growing concern that America's
armed services are dangerously overextended and possibly nearing a breaking
point.
-
- With nearly all of the Army's 10 divisions serving in
Iraq, preparing for deployment there or refitting from a combat tour in
that country, there are few forces available to deal with a new major threat
or emergency, military experts say.
-
- As Gen. Peter Schoomaker, the Army chief of staff, said
at a congressional hearing last month, "I'm committed to providing
the troops that are requested [for Iraq]. But I can't promise more than
I've got."
-
- The Army is fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and maintaining
a military presence in the Balkans, Germany, South Korea and other foreign
countries with a total force of just under 500,000. It had more than 800,000
under arms when it waged the brief Persian Gulf war in 1991.
-
- "You need a bigger Army if you're going to carry
out the Bush national security strategy," said Lawrence Korb, who
served as assistant secretary of defense in the Reagan administration.
"Right now, you're really using the reserves at an unsustainable pace,
and you're violating the norms that you have for deploying people overseas
that you've established not only for equity but for retention."
-
- The U.S. has more troops in all branches serving abroad
than it averaged from 1950 to 2003, and three times as many overseas as
it had in December 2001, according to a study by the Washington-based Heritage
Foundation.
-
- "If you look at the world--and what we're likely
to see in the future in terms of potential threats and areas where we need
to be involved, either to deter or actually conduct operations--I think
it's clear that we need a larger force than what we have," said Michelle
Flournoy, a former deputy assistant defense secretary now with the Center
for Strategic and International Studies.
-
- But Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has long maintained
that the U.S. has been supplying all the troops the commanders in the field
require. "If they ask for more troops, they'll get them," he
said.
-
- Army Chief of Staff Gen. Eric Shinseki was pushed into
early retirement and Army Secretary Thomas White resigned last year after
they argued that the U.S. would need several hundred thousand troops in
Iraq to maintain security after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime.
Since then, Pentagon commanders have been reluctant to contradict Rumsfeld,
on or off the record.
-
- But in testimony last month before the House Armed Services
Committee, Schoomaker hinted that an expanded force may be required, particularly
because so much of the military burden is being borne by National Guard
and reserve members who were considered part-time but have virtually become
part of the active-duty force.
-
- "If the Army National Guard or Army Reserve cannot
muster and provide the formations that are required, perhaps we need to
increase the size of the regular Army," Schoomaker told the committee.
-
- The Defense Department announced this week that more
than 183,000 National Guard and reserve troops are on active duty, compared
with 79,000 on the eve of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Of the 138,000 troops
still on duty in Iraq, 40 percent are Guard or reserve members.
-
- For years the Pentagon operated on the theory that even
with reduced force levels it could fight two "medium regional conflicts"
simultaneously. Rumsfeld, who favors a leaner, more flexible military,
has insisted the U.S. still has that capability. But increasingly that
premise has come under question, and the Defense Science Board, an advisory
panel for the defense secretary, has called for more manpower.
-
- "While I don't think we're going to invade countries
and attempt regime changes as a matter of routine," Flournoy said,
"I do think it is likely that we'll need to engage in more than one
theater at once, and the force we have today in terms of ground forces
is not large enough."
-
- Specter of the draft
-
- The increasing seriousness of the situation emboldened
Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) (D-Mass.)
to assert during the campaign that re-electing President Bush could mean
bringing back the draft.
-
- "With George Bush, the plan for Iraq is more of
the same, and the potential is great for a return to the draft," he
said in an interview with The Des Moines Register.
-
- To rebut that assertion, House Republicans arranged an
election-eve vote on a reinstatement of the draft that saw it defeated
402-2, sending a clear signal that the idea was politically unpalatable.
-
- While arguing against a draft, Kerry called for expanding
the Army by two divisions, or about 40,000 troops, a position supported
by Korb and Michael O'Hanlon, a national security specialist for the Brookings
Institution think tank.
-
- Rumsfeld has said more pay increases will be required
if the Pentagon finds it necessary to add to the force. There also is a
danger that recruiting standards might have to be lowered, as happened
in the post-Vietnam era of the 1970s.
-
- Sens. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Chuck
Hagel (R-Neb.) successfully sponsored legislation for a permanent increase
of the authorized ceiling on Army troop strength from 482,000 to 502,000.
The administration already had used emergency powers to increase it to
about 497,000, but only as a temporary measure.
-
- The White House has refused to fund permanently an increase
in troop strength out of the regular Defense Department budget, insisting
that the money come out of special appropriations because the increase
is temporary. Every 10,000 troops costs the U.S. about $1.2 billion a year.
-
- "I find it baffling," said Reed, a West Point
graduate and former captain in the 82nd Airborne Division. "You don't
have to be a trained military strategist to know that you needed more people
in Iraq, and the only way to have more people in Iraq is to have more people
in the service."
-
- Pay raise this year
-
- As a recruiting and retention inducement, military personnel
received a 3.5 percent pay raise this year, plus increases in housing allowances
and other benefits. About 40,000 servicemen and women have been held in
the military beyond their retirement or separation dates under emergency
"stop loss" orders, or kept overseas beyond their transfer dates
under "stop move" orders.
-
- The Army National Guard achieved only 87 percent of its
recruitment goal in the fiscal year that just ended. According to Lt. Gen.
James Helmly, chief of the Army Reserve, the reserve is short about 5,000
captains--officers who fill vital roles as company commanders or perform
other important duties in the field.
-
- Reserve and National Guard units also are losing midlevel
non-commissioned officers.
-
- "There is no question that the pace of our nation
at war challenges our Army," Schoomaker said.
-
- ---
-
- Size of military drops in last three decades
-
- The number of U.S. troops on active duty has decreased
considerably since the end of the draft and the Cold War. Some experts
say the military must grow to meet U.S. commitments overseas.
-
- U.S. ACTIVE DUTY TROOPS All service branches, in millions,
1950-2004
-
- Korean War
-
- Vietnam War
-
- 1973: Draft ends; switch to all-volunteer military
-
- ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY PERSONNEL
-
- As of Sept. 30, by service branch
-
- Total: 1.4 million
-
- Air Force: 376,616
-
- Army: 499,543
-
- Marine Corps: 177,480
-
- Navy: 373,197
-
- COUNTRIES WITH MOST U.S. TROOPS BASED THERE*
-
- As of Sept. 30
-
- Total: 287,802
-
- Germany 76,058
-
- S. Korea 40,840
-
- Japan 36,365
-
- Italy 12,606
-
- Britain 11,469
-
- * About 170,000 U.S. troops are deployed in and around
Iraq but have home bases elsewhere, including in the United States.
-
- Source: Department of Defense
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- Copyright © 2004 Chicago Tribune
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