- LONDON -- Syrian President
Bashar Assad has decided to acquire offensive and defensive weapons in
2005 as part of an effort to repel any U.S. or Israeli attack on Syria.
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- Western intelligence sources said Assad plans to order
at least $2 billion worth of Russian or Soviet-origin equipment during
his meeting with President Vladimir Putin later this month. The sources
said the Assad regime has assessed that U.S. forces based in Iraq would
launch a major attack on Syria in 2005.
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- Syrian officials and government-aligned analysts acknowledge
that Assad's visit was meant to acquire advanced Russian weapons to bolster
deterrence against Israel and the United States, Middle East Newsline reported.
They said they expect the two countries to press Moscow to suspend the
SA-18 and other arms deals approved by Putin.
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- "He is clearly frightened of either an American
or Israeli attack or a coup attempt by Washington," a Western intelligence
analyst said. "Already, his regime is divided over how to respond
to the U.S. threats."
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- "The chances of the United States invading Syria
these days are extremely low," a Western intelligence source said.
"But Assad doesn't believe that."
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- The sources said Assad has acquired funding commitments
from Iran and Saudi Arabia to facilitate the Russian arms deal. They said
Assad planned to demand immediate transfers of such systems as the SA-18
surface-to-air missile, Kornet-E anti-tank weapon and a Russian upgrade
of Syrian artillery.
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- "This is not the first time Israel and the United
States, individually or jointly, have interfered to halt Syrian defense
plans," Syrian analyst Imad Shueibi said. "What the United States
and Israel want is to maintain a huge military gap between Israel and Syria
in order to create an illusion of a possibility of imposing a peace settlement."
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- Syrian analysts said Assad has sought to procure the
new Russian long-range Iskander-E rocket. The rocket has a range of 280
kilometers and a circle error of probability of between 10 and 20 meters.
They said this would enable a Syrian first strike against U.S. and Israeli
military positions and vital facilities.
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- "The visit might give Syria additional options,
unacceptable to the United States in the current stage," Shueibi said.
"There is a golden rule of politics, which is necessity of choice,
which permits Syria to forge a set of international relations that could
clash with the U.S. position."
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- For its part, the United States has urged Russia not
to sell weapons to Syria. U.S. officials said the issue was raised during
this week's visit to Washington by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov.
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- "We did have a general discussion of nonproliferation
with him, including the need to avoid any proliferation towards Syria,
the need to be careful with regard to sales to countries like that,"
Secretary of State Colin Powell said on Thursday. "But at this point,
the Russians have said publicly that they're not selling missiles to Syria,
so I think we'll just leave it at that for the moment."
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- The Assad regime was also said to be examining other
Russian systems, including the S-300PMU-2 long-range anti-aircraft system,
the shorter-range TOR-M1 as well as the Kornet-E and Metis-M anti-tank
weapons systems. In 2002, Syria bought the Kornet-E and Metis-M and several
of the systems were transferred to the Saddam regime on the eve of the
U.S. invasion of Iraq in March 2003.
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- The intelligence sources said Assad has been particularly
alarmed by what he has determined to be U.S. attempts to overthrow his
regime. They said the senior echelon of the government and Baath Party
have been divided into the old guard that wants a stronger alliance with
Iran and young technocrats who want an accommodation with the United States.
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