- BAGHDAD - Iraq's insurgency
counts more than 200,000 active fighters and sympathisers, the country's
national intelligence chief told AFP, in the bleakest assessment to date
of the armed revolt waged by Sunni Muslims.
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- "I think the resistance is bigger than the US
military in Iraq. I think the resistance is more than 200,000 people,"
Iraqi intelligence service director General Mohamed Abdullah Shahwani said
in an interview ahead of the January 30 elections.
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- Shahwani said the number includes at least 40,000
hardcore fighters but rises to more than 200,000 members counting part-time
fighters and volunteers who provide rebels everything from intelligence
and logistics to shelter.
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- The numbers far exceed any figure presented by the
US military in Iraq, which has struggled to get a handle on the size of
the resistance since toppling Saddam Hussein's regime in April 2003.
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- A senior US military officer declined to endorse
or dismiss the spy chief's numbers.
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- "As for the size of the insurgency, we don't
have good resolution on the size," the officer said on condition of
anonymity.
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- Past US military assessments on the insurgency's
size have been revised upwards from 5,000 to 20,000 full and part-time
members, in the last half year, most recently in October.
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- Defense experts said it was impossible to divine
the insurgency's total number, but called Shahwani's estimate a valid guess,
with as much credence, if not more, than any US numbers.
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- "I believe General Shahwani's estimation, given
that he is referring predominantly to active sympathizers and supporters
and to part-time as well as full-time active insurgents, may not be completely
out of the ballpark," said defense analyst Bruce Hoffman who served
as an advisor to the US occupation in Iraq and now works for US-based think-tank
RAND Corporation.
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- Compared to the coalition's figure, he said: "General
Shahwani's - however possibly high it may be, might well give a more accurate
picture of the situation."
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- Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq analyst with the Washington-based
Center for Strategic and International Studies, put Shahwani's estimates
on an equal footing with the American's.
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- "The Iraqi figures do... recognize the reality
that the insurgency in Iraq has broad support in Sunni areas while the
US figures down play this to the point of denial."
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- Shahwani said the resistance enjoys wide backing
in the provinces of Baghdad, Babel, Salahuddin, Diyala, Nineveh and Tamim,
homes to Sunni Arabs who fear they will lose influence after the elections.
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- Insurgents have gained strength through Iraq's tight-knit
tribal bonds and links to the old 400,000-strong Iraqi army, dissolved
by the US occupation in May 2003 two months after the US-led invasion,
he said.
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- "People are fed up after two years, without
improvement. People are fed up with no security, no electricity, people
feel they have to do something. The army was hundreds of thousands. You'd
expect some veterans would join with their relatives, each one has sons
and brothers."
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- The rebels have turned city neighborhoods and small
towns around central Iraq into virtual no-go zones despite successful US
military efforts to reclaim former enclaves like Samarra and Fallujah,
he said.
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- "What are you going to call the situation here
(in Baghdad) when 20 to 30 men can move around with weapons and no one
can get them in Adhamiyah, Dura and Ghazaliya," he said, naming neighborhoods
in the capital.
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- The spy chief also questioned the success of the
November campaign to retake Fallujah, which US forces have hailed as a
major victory against the resistance.
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- "What we have now is an empty city almost destroyed...
and most of the insurgents are free. They have gone either to Mosul or
to Baghdad or other areas."
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- Shahwani pointed to a resurgent Baath party as the
key to the insurgency's might. The Baath has split into three factions,
with the deadliest being the branch still paying allegiance to jailed dictator
Saddam Hussein, he said.
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- Shahwani said the core Baath fighting strength was
more than 20,000.
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- Operating out of Syria, Saddam's half-brother Sabawi
Ibrahim al-Hassan and former aide Mohamed Yunis al-Ahmed are providing
funding and tapping their connections to old army divisions, particularily
in Mosul, Samarra, Baquba, Kirkuk and Tikrit.
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- Saddam's henchman, Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri, still on
the lam in Iraq, is also involved, he said.
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- Another two factions, which have broken from Saddam,
are also around, but have yet to mount any attacks. The Baath are complemented
by Islamist factions ranging from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's al-Qaeda affiliate
to Ansar al-Sunna and Ansar al-Islam.
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- Asked if the insurgents were winning, Shahwani answered:
"I would say they aren't losing."
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- US, Iraqi Defence Experts Say They Are
- 250,000+ Iraqi Fighters And Sympathizers
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- 1-4-5
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- Bruce Hoffman, who served as an adviser to the US occupation
in Iraq and now works for US-based thinktank Rand Corporation, said he
believed the estimate, though it said it was impossible to know for sure.
And Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq analyst with the Washington-based Centre
for Strategic and International Studies, put the estimates on an equal
footing with the American's. "The Iraqi figures do recognise the reality
that the insurgency in Iraq has broad support in Sunni areas while the
US figures down play this to the point of denial."
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- Iraqi Intelligence Service director General Muhammad
Abd Allah Shahwani told journalists on Monday that his assessment included
50,000 fulltime fighters and about 200,000 Iraqis involved part-time. He
added that part-timers were also likely to be providing everything from
intelligence to logistics and shelter. "I think the resistance is
bigger than the US military in Iraq. I think the resistance is more than
200,000 people," he added.
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- The numbers far exceed any figure presented by the US
military in Iraq, which has struggled to control the country since ousting
the former government in April 2003. Past US military assessments on fighter
numbers have been increased from 5000 to 20,000 full and part-time members
in the past half year, most recently in October.
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- Shahwani said "the resistance" enjoys wide
backing in the provinces of Baghdad, Babil, Salah al-Din, Diyala, Nineveh
and Tamim. He said fighters have gained strength through Iraq's tight-knit
tribal bonds and links to the old 400,000-strong Iraqi army, dissolved
by the US occupation in May 2003 two months after the US-led invasion."People
are fed up after two years without improvement. People are fed up with
no security, no electricity, people feel they have to do something,"
he said. "The army was hundreds of thousands. You would expect some
veterans would join with their relatives, each one has sons and brothers."
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- The intelligence chief added that some city neighbourhoods
and small towns around central Iraq had become virtual no-go zones despite
US military efforts in Samarra and Falluja. He also named areas in Baghdad
itself where various groups had become virtually untouchable.
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- And in stark contrast to many US assessments of success
in Falluja, the spy chief said the November campaign of the town was far
from a military triumph. "What we have now is an empty city almost
destroyed and most of the insurgents are free. They have gone either to
Mosul or to Baghdad or other areas." Shahwani stopped short of saying
that anti-US fighters were now taking control of the situation in Iraq,
but warned: "I would say they aren't losing."
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