- Nearly 90 million Africans could be infected by the HIV
virus in the next 20 years if more is not done to combat the epidemic,
the UN has warned.
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- Some 25 million Africans have HIV, the virus that causes
Aids, at present.
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- The world body estimates the next two decades could see
89 million new cases of the disease in Africa - or up to 10% of the continent's
population.
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- The UN recommends a committed campaign against HIV/Aids
- and $200bn (£105bn) of investment - to stem its spread.
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- At best, taking more action against Aids could save 16
million people from dying of the disease and a further 43 million people
from contracting it, the UN says.
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- Dramatic impact
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- The UN report concludes that if millions of Africans
are still being infected by the HIV virus by 2025, "it will not be
because there was no choice".
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- "It will be because, collectively, there was insufficient
political will to change behaviour at all levels... and halt the forces
driving the Aids epidemic in Africa."
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- The study, entitled Aids in Africa, was compiled over
two years using more than 150 experts.
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- According to the BBC's UN correspondent, Suzy Price,
it demonstrates the dramatic impact government policies could have on the
spread of HIV and Aids in Africa.
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- Epidemic threat
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- The report offers three different models of how the disease
could affect the continent in 20 years, based on how much money and effort
is invested in fighting it.
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- The worst-case scenario, in which funding and policies
stay as they are now, foresees a fourfold increase in the total number
of people dying from Aids.
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- The report also looks at two more positive outcomes.
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- In the best-case scenario, international aid flows to
Africa are doubled, investment in health systems is increased and agriculture
and education and treatment is dramatically improved.
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- The report says that even in this case the total number
of deaths would continue to rise.
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- According to our correspondent, the UN offers hope that
the effective use of resources could eventually end the Aids epidemic in
Africa.
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- At the same time, it warns that current levels of action
could see the disease bring the entire continent to its knees.
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- http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/africa/4317019.stm
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- © BBC MMV
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