- "The mortality rate is frightening with only six
survivors so far out of the outbreak's 132 recorded cases -- and some of
them may yet succumb."
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- The case fatality rate for Marburg appears to be 100%.
Although media coverage has increased in recent weeks, along with the record
number of Marburg deaths in Angola, there has been no mention of any discharged
patients. An accurate case fatality rate is based on known outcomes, and
would be the ratio of the deaths relative to the number of deaths plus
discharges. Tallies, such as the one above, include the recently diagnosed
patients, who may be alive, but have not been discharged. Since there
are no reported discharges, most or all of those hospitalized will probably
die.
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- WHO's update at the beginning of the week reported 117
deaths out of 124 cases. However, 6 of the 7 who had not died had been
described in in media reports as recent hospital admissions. There have
been several updates this week with slightly different numbers, but the
difference between those who have been diagnosed and those who have died
has been less than ten, further supporting the data suggesting that there
have been no discharges.
-
- The case fatality rate for Marburg or Ebola cases, caused
by this closely related Ebola virus, has varied from 40% to 88% for the
larger outbreaks in Africa. At this stage, the current outbreak clearly
has the highest case fatality rate. Most of the deaths have been in Uige,
but recently there have been deaths in Luanda, Negage, and Cabinda. There
have been no reports of discharges at any of the above locations. All of
the cases outside of Uige have been linked to the epicenter of the outbreak.
-
- The reason for the high fatality rate is unknown. Initial
cases were mostly children, but more recent cases have included adults.
Among the adults who have died are 6 nurses, 2 physicians, and 2 policemen.
All of these health care workers and first responder cases have died in
the past two weeks.
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- http://www.recombinomics.com/New
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