- Re:
- http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/17/opinion/17sun2.html?ei=5090&en=bf1a
188a2002b162&ex=1279252800&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=print
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- If a much-feared pandemic of avian influenza starts sweeping
through the world's population anytime soon, neither the United States
nor international health authorities will be prepared to cope with it.
There is not enough vaccine or antiviral medicine available to protect
more than a handful of people, and no industrial capacity to produce a
lot more of these medicines quickly.
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- The best that can be hoped is that no pandemic will materialize
for the next several years, allowing time to become better prepared, or
that a potential pandemic can be spotted early enough to allow international
health officials to snuff it out before the virus runs amok.
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- It has been 37 years since the last influenza pandemic,
or widespread global epidemic, so by historic patterns we may be due for
another. And a particularly ominous strain of avian influenza that has
devastated poultry flocks in Asia seems poised to wreak havoc in humans.
This strain, known as H5N1, first became a matter of health concern in
1997 when it was found to have jumped from birds to humans in Hong Kong
in an outbreak that failed to spread widely. Since then, the virus has
looked more and more threatening. It has infected poultry, domestic ducks
and migratory birds in nine countries, making the virus almost impossible
to contain. More ominously, the virus has developed the ability to jump
to a range of mammals, including pigs, mice, tigers and domestic cats.
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- The human toll has been slight. Only 108 people have
been infected, of whom 54 have died, an alarmingly high mortality rate
but one that seems to be diminishing. It is reassuring that millions of
people have lived and worked in close proximity to infected birds without
harm and even more reassuring that the flu strain has not yet developed
the ability to spread easily from one person to another, the sine qua non
for a pandemic to take off.
- But that could change in a trice if the virus mutates
or combines its genes with a human influenza virus.
-
- No one knows whether the world is headed toward a health
disaster or a false alarm, but virtually all experts agree we need to strengthen
our defenses. American health authorities have taken the lead in testing
vaccines against two strains of avian flu and have contracted to buy two
million doses of a vaccine against H5N1. That is a tiny fraction of the
amount that would be needed if a pandemic hit, but will give the manufacturer
experience that would prove useful in a crisis. Officials have also stockpiled
enough antiviral medicine to treat 2.3 million people, again a fraction
of what would be needed in a pandemic.
-
- Yet the best defense might be to go on the offensive.
The most urgent need is to control the disease in poultry and other animals
that might spread the virus to humans. Some countries have done a good
job. Others, including Vietnam, which accounts for almost 80 percent of
the human cases, need more prodding and international assistance. If the
virus breaks through this line of attack, authorities should try to quench
an incipient outbreak before it can really get started. The Bush administration
is wisely pumping millions of dollars into an international effort to improve
surveillance of the disease in humans and animals in the infected regions
of Asia, and the World Health Organization has amassed a small stockpile
of antiviral drugs that will soon be enlarged and could be rushed to the
scene of any outbreak.
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- Many experts are doubtful that it would be possible to
detect and contain an outbreak of transmissible influenza in time to head
off a pandemic. But that may be the best hope we have until we are able
to upgrade today's fragile and unreliable vaccine production system with
new processes that can expand output quickly to meet a crisis.
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- http://www.recombinomics.com
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- Patricia A. Doyle, PhD
- Please visit my "Emerging Diseases" message
board at:
http://www.clickitnews.com/ubbthreads/postlist.php?
Cat=&Board=emergingdiseases
- Zhan le Devlesa tai sastimasa
- Go with God and in Good Health
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