- Hello, Jeff - For the past few weeks, we have been hearing
about a "mystery" die-off of poultry in Thailand. It was obvious
that the die-off, which was extremely virulent and killed the poultry as
does H5N1...was H5N1. After the first human cases were suspected, the
government of Thailand had no alternative but to admit that after an 8
months free of bird flu, it was back.
-
- I cannot help but wonder if the human cases, or at least,
some of the human cases, could have been prevented had the government admitted
bird flu was a real possibility, or probability in poultry.
-
- The delay by many countries to admit to bird flu has
enabled the virus to become endemic in most of the affected countries.
We were quite fortunate with the first confirmed human to human transmission
in the Karo cluster in Indonesia. The virus did not go beyond the family.
It died out. Before dying out, the virus did go through three generations
of infection, and, in the last or third generation, the victim's virus
implemented 21 mutations. Had the virus spread beyond the cluster, one
can only imagine how many more mutations each generation would pick up.
Would one of the mutations be a major increase in the ease of transmissibility
between humans?
-
- The world cannot afford coverups or delays in diagnosing
bird flu. A few weeks of poultry infections in Thailand has resulted in
7 bird flu human cases.
-
- Each country that either covers up cases or delays in
admitting cases puts the world at risk. This should not, and cannot be
tolerated.
-
- The WHO is hoarding/hiding human sequences from Indonesia,
and even some animal sequences. The WHO blames the Indonesian government.
The WHO claims that it does not want to ask the Indonesian government to
release the sequences as WHO does not want to alienate the Indonesian government.
The Indonesian government claims that they will allow the sequences to
be released. Meanwhile, the sequences are kept hidden. We may never know
what mutations were part of the Karo cluster and we may never know how
close we came to a pandemic strain and subsequent pandemic. This is unacceptable.
-
- Meanwhile, the WHO and Indonesian Government quelled
fears in May regarding the Karo cluster. They claimed that the mutations
were insignificant but, how do we know as we did not see any of the sequences?
At the same time, we were told that there was not a risk of a pandemic
strain. HHS secretary Mike Leavitt was sending (undisclosed) amount of
the US tamiflu stockpile to an (undisclosed) Asian country. This deployment
was done at the behest of the WHO which in turn was sending 9,500 doses
of tamiflu to Indonesia...and the WHO had put Roche on alert to stockpile
and be ready to send
- 3 MILLION doses of tamiflu to Indonesia.
-
- All of this when there was no danger of a pandemic?
-
- It was also unacceptable to deploy the tamiflu and NOT
tell the public what was happening, where it was happening and, what were
the chances of the virus escaping from the "undisclosed" Asian
country of Indonesia.
-
- It appears that avian influenza A H5N1 is not going away
anytime soon. There are more then 50 STRAINS of avian influenza A H5N1
in Indonesia alone. It now looks as though a pandemic is going to occur.
Where or when, that is the question.
-
- It was obvious on May 22nd that we cannot depend upon
our government to inform us when the pandemic strain is discovered. Obviously,
Secretary Leavitt was not going to let the public know about a pandemic
strain until the virus had escaped Indonesia and began hitting the US.
-
- Again, this is unacceptable. People need to begin pandemic
supply preparations, if they have NOT done so previously. I can assure
you that the government will be extremely inept at responding to a pandemic
influenza outbreak. It is all up to YOU.
-
- Patricia Doyle
-
-
- Europe Raps Delay Of Bird Flu Report
-
- Bangkok Post
- 7-26-6
-
- Goverment reluctance to admit that bird flu has broken
out again after eight virus-free months was "dissappointing,"
European diplomats monitoring the situation said Tuesday.
-
- Agriculture Minister Sudarat Keyuraphan confirmed on
Monday a fresh outbreak of the H5N1 virus in the northern province of Pichit.
-
- But local farmers had claimed two weeks ago that fighting
cocks and ordinary chickens were dying with all the symptoms of bird flu.
-
- Diplomats said the official and unofficial reports of
bird flu-like deaths "don't look good" and that more outbreaks
were likely to reported over the coming weeks. Laos recently admitted that
bird flu had appeared again after a period of almost two years.
-
- European observers said it was damaging to Thailand's
credibility to delay confirming outbreaks of bird flu, which also slowed
down the official containment measures such as culling and isolating the
affected areas.
-
- Thailand recently sought European Community permission
to resume its exports of fresh and quick-frozen poultry, after an eight-month
period without any appearance of the H5N1 virus.
-
- The EC had announced earlier this month that its ban
on fresh poultry imports from China, Thailand and Malaysia would remain
in place until the end of 2007.
-
- Thai Senator Nirun Phitakwatchara accused the ministry
of resorting to its "old tricks" of trying to suppress bird-flu
news in an effort to protect poultry exports.
-
- "The Agriculture Ministry has once again put export
income ahead of people's lives," Nirun told the Bangkok Post.
-
- The authorities were criticized for allegedly covering
up the initial outbreaks of bird flu in Thailand in early 2004.
-
- Officials with the Livestock Development Department's
Disease Control Bureau said that all fowl near the infected farm in Pichit
had been culled over the weekend and a ban placed on all movement fowl
in the infected province.
-
- The recurrence of bird flu was suspected a fortnight
ago following the deaths of some 30 fighting cocks and free-range chickens.
-
- The Public Health Ministry reported that an 11-year-old
boy from Pichit had become Thailand's latest suspected bird-flu case. Blood
samples from a total of eight suspected victims were currently being tested,
it added. (dpa)
-
- http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=111207
-
- Patricia A. Doyle DVM, PhD
- Bus Admin, Tropical Agricultural Economics
- Univ of West Indies
-
- Please visit my "Emerging Diseases" message
board at:
- http://www.emergingdisease.org/phpbb/index.php
- Also my new website:
- http://drpdoyle.tripod.com/
- Zhan le Devlesa tai sastimasa
- Go with God and in Good Health
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