- Russian President Vladimir Putin was asked about Russia-China
relations and the mounting regional/global clout of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation
Organization). He expressed great satisfaction and excitement about the
path of Russia-China relations, but quickly denied that the two strategic
partners were involved in "cooking anything up between themselves".
-
- In fact, he claimed that the mounting regional and global
clout of the SCO has never been planned for or intentionally striven for
by the two partners, that it has entirely happened "by surprise".
And, of course, he claimed once again that neither the SCO nor the deepening
Russia-China strategic partnership was "aimed at the US or NATO"
(North Atlantic Treaty Organization).
-
- But contrary to Putin's soothing assurances to the West
at the recent Valdai Club meeting, Russia and China most certainly do have
"something in the geopolitical oven", and it has been cooking
steadily for nearly a decade. In fact, their geopolitical main course is
practically ready to be served to the table, so to speak, and directly
contrary to Putin's recent claims they both intended from the beginning
for the SCO eventually to play a significant role.
-
- One only has to read the Sino-Russian Joint Statements
from 1997 forward to see that the two partners embarked on a carefully
conceived and adroitly executed geopolitical course and strategy a decade
ago, and they have made tremendous progress toward the achievement of the
specific goal they set way back then. Note these facts and precisely what
their goal has been in the excerpts and commentary that follow:
-
- From the Sino-Russian Joint Statement of April 23, 1997:
-
- The two sides shall, in the spirit of partnership, strive
to promote the multipolarization of the world and the establishment of
a new international order .
-
- The establishment of a just and equitable new international
political and economic order based on peace and stability has become the
pressing need of the times and the inevitable necessity of history.
-
- All countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or
poor, are equal members of the international community. No country should
seek hegemony, practice power politics or monopolize international affairs.
-
- Both sides express concern over the attempt at enlarging
and strengthening military blocs, because such a tendency may pose a threat
to the security of certain countries and aggravate regional and global
tension.
-
- Both sides underscore that the vast member of developing
countries and the Non-Aligned Movement are important forces in promoting
world multipolarization and building a new international order.
-
- Developing countries have enhanced their awareness of
self-strengthening through unity, played a greater role in world politics
and increased their share of the world economy.
-
- Their rise will give a strong boost to the historical
process towards the establishment of a new international order. [Emphasis
added]
-
-
- From "PRC, Russia leaders issue joint statement",
December 10, 1999:
-
- [The two sides] propose to push forward the establishment
of a multipolar world on the basis of the principles of the United Nations
Charter and existing international laws in the 21st century, strengthen
the UN's dominant status in international affairs, and peacefully resolve
international disputes through political means ... and establish a fair,
equal, and mutually beneficial international political and economic order.
Third, the two sides point out that negative momentum in international
relations continues to grow, and the following is becoming more obvious:
The forcing of the international community to accept a unipolar world pattern
and a single model of culture, value concepts and ideology, and a weakening
of the role of the United Nations and its Security Council; the seeking
of excuses to give irresponsible explanations or amendment to the purposes
and principles of the UN Charter; the reinforcing and expanding of military
blocs; the replacing of international law with power politics or even resorting
to force; and the jeopardizing of the sovereignty of independent states
using the concepts of "human rights are superior to sovereignty"
and "humanitarian intervention".
-
- The two sides agree to work together with the rest of
the world to oppose the momentum presently preventing the establishment
of a just multipolar structure for international relations.
-
- Seventh, the two countries express their satisfaction
with the implementation of the Bishkek Declaration issued by the summit
of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, known as the "Shanghai
Five States" , on August 25, 1999.
-
- In line with the Sino-Russian equal and trustworthy strategic
partnership of cooperation, the two sides are willing to strengthen their
cooperation, considering that the two countries share similar or identical
views on such issues as the establishment of an international multipolar
order and democracy and justice in international affairs. [Emphasis added]
-
- From the China-Russia Joint Statement of July 1, 2005:
-
- Strictly abiding by the propositions on building a multipolar
world and a new international order as enunciated in the Joint Statement
of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation Regarding
Global Multipolarity and the Establishment of a New International Order
of April 23, 1997,
-
- The international community should thoroughly renounce
the mentality of confrontation and alignment, should not pursue the right
to monopolize or dominate world affairs , and should not divide countries
into a leading camp and a subordinate camp.
-
- In the sphere of regional security, the establishment
of security cooperation mechanisms that take into account the interests
of all parties, are open, and are not directed at other countries has
fundamental significance. [Emphasis added]
-
- Look at the declarations
-
- The ultimate target of deepening Russian-Chinese strategic
cooperation is clearly the pushing toward the establishment of what they
call the "multipolar world order" to end US global dominance.
The joint statements above prove that fact beyond any reasonable doubt
whatever.
-
- Consequently, the repeated claims by the two that no
"third country" is being targeted amount only to pure diplomatic
indirection and propaganda. The US most certainly is being targeted. You
cannot push to establish a new international order to end dominance by
one power without simultaneously targeting the one power that currently
has that domination - namely, the United States itself. However, the targeting
being done by Russia, China and their global partners isn't that of directly
hitting the US economy to sink it, or of directly attacking the US military
in a confrontation.
-
- The targeting of the US global position of dominance
is much smarter than that. It is indirect targeting, in which US economic,
political and even military dominance and power are undermined and weakened
by virtue of the creation of a deepening and widening global complex of
strategic resources-based economic, political and military ties, a complex
that is centered in the East rather than looking to the US as center, and
a complex that mostly disregards, and increasingly rivals, US interests.
-
- That strategy of ending US global dominance by pushing
for "multipolarity", not directly confronting the US but rather
building a non-US-centric global complex, works because the US is able
to dominate the globe only because the world at large permits it to do
so and either actively or indirectly facilitates such dominance. The US
is not nearly omnipotent, politically, economically or militarily. It must
dominate by virtue of willing allies and key powers that permit the US
to exercise its influence through them, and by maintaining fear on the
part of its rivals with respect to opposing the US in the spheres of the
global economy and the military. Without the combination of willing cooperation
and fearful acquiescence on the part of the world at large, the US will
tumble from its global position of dominance.
-
- Russia and China have correctly calculated, therefore,
that if they can undermine that willing cooperation and fearful acquiescence
by turning enough of the globe's key states away from a US-centric stance
toward a stance more in line with their own purpose, inculcating them firmly
into their own growing complex of economic, political and even military
ties centered in the East, then the US will incrementally suffer ever greater
political and economic isolation and subsequent weakening of its leverage
and position on the world stage.
-
- At the center of the new global complex of ties is the
Russia-China axis itself. That has been the strategy of the two partners
since before they issued their Joint Statement of April 23, 1997 - to build
a new international economic and political order that isn't US-centric,
that progressively robs the US of the deep cooperation and fearful acquiescence
it needs across the globe to keep it atop the current order, and that thereby
cuts deeply into the US ability to continue to dominate the world order.
They aren't directly confronting the US in their efforts, but make no mistake
- they are powerfully targeting the US nonetheless.
-
- The United States has inadvertently cooperated on a massive
scale with Russia and China in their push to create this new order, cooperated
with them in their political, ideological and economic push to isolate
the US incrementally. By its policies and actions since the collapse of
the Soviet Union, and especially since September 11, 2001, the US has profoundly
isolated itself on the world stage. That has played, and continues to play,
directly into the hands of Russia, China and their strategic partners who
understand US global isolation is the key to ending US global dominance.
That is the real meaning of the policies and actions undertaken by Russia,
China and their partners in the lead-up to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003,
in which they have worked steadily to isolate the US and to keep it isolated,
and to deepen its isolation. They have been very quick to capitalize on
growing US isolation to construct rapidly their global complex of resources-based
economic, political, ideological and security ties not centered on the
US, and as rivals to the US.
-
- Hence whenever Russian and Chinese leaders say that neither
the US nor NATO is being targeted by their activities, that is an entirely
facetious statement designed to give the two partners plausible deniability,
in that the statement is technically true - they aren't directly hitting
or confronting the US economy or military. But they most certainly are
actively working to undermine the US global position by insidious, indirect
and profoundly effective means. And US leaders simply aren't intelligent
and humble enough to understand the effectiveness of the strategy or how
they themselves are aiding in its success.
-
- Note that in the joint statements quoted above, the two
partners (Russia and China) repeatedly spoke not only of a new political
order, but also of a new international economic order. Notably, in the
April 23, 1997, statement the following statement was made:
-
- Both sides underscore that the ... developing countries
and the Non-Aligned Movement are important forces in promoting world multipolarization
and building a new international order.
-
- Developing countries have enhanced their awareness of
self-strengthening through unity, played a greater role in world politics,
and increased their share of the world economy .
-
- Their rise will give a strong boost to the historical
process towards the establishment of a new international order. [Emphasis
added]
-
-
- It so happens that the vast bulk of the world's strategic
resources are located within the very group mentioned here, the developing
countries and the Non-Aligned Movement. It is not by accident that Russia
and China have concentrated their efforts there, succeeding in deeply integrating
those nations into their global complex of ties, and simultaneously those
resource-rich nations have become ever more characterized by adoption of
deeply anti-American economic, political and/or religious ideologies.
-
- The undermining and weakening of US global economic power
and dominance are key to the achievement of the goal of ending the unipolar
order that is led by the United States. It is being accomplished without
direct confrontation between the US and its rivals. The massive ongoing
transfer of wealth from the US to its rivals and the attendant weakening
of the US economy is in no small part facilitated by energy developments
and the growing cohesiveness and anti-US political affinity among the globe's
energy producers, who by and large disdain continued US global dominance.
Additionally, entities such as the SCO are being employed to reverse US
geopolitical advances in energy-rich regions by helping to close ranks
among its members, further placing the strategic US economic security in
a precarious position. The US has requested, but has been denied, any role
whatever in the SCO, which is shaping up to be a closed entity to the West.
-
- On September 15, RIA Novosti reported that prime ministers
of SCO member countries, while gathered in Dushanbe for a key meeting,
gave instructions for studies to be conducted into the establishment of
a regional energy club. In June at the SCO Summit, Putin caused a stir
when he proposed the creation of the energy club centered in the SCO and
designed to balance the interests of producers and key consumers such as
China (a key founding member of the SCO) and India (which has observer
status in the SCO) in a new arrangement that would transcend the leverage
of a mere axis of producers alone. That proposal appears to be taking definite
shape now, with officials from Kazakhstan and Russia tasked with drafting
proposals for a key meeting next year of the grouping's fuel and energy
experts. The ongoing development of the SCO-centered energy club proposed
by Putin in June is a development of profound importance and constitutes
a major advance in the Russian effort to complete the drawing of the circle
of international energy security, a circle that by and large excludes the
West.
-
- Russia and China have been "cooking something up
between themselves" for at least a decade now, and the results are
already dramatic, to say the least. Don't expect Russia and its partners
to "play nice" with energy and other strategic resources, not
in view of the colossal stakes for both sides in the Great Game and the
fact that the West will stop at nothing to try to turn the Game around
in its favor before the clock soon runs out.
-
- Putin's promise that Russia will not behave like an energy
superpower is a promise that cannot be kept. It is a promise the West must
not give credence to or rely upon, but the West itself is partly to blame
for the increasingly contentious relations between resource-rich East and
resource-dependent West. The moment of truth for both sides in the Great
Game and for the current global order itself is impending.
-
- W Joseph Stroupe is editor of Global Events Magazine,
online at www.GeoStrategyMap.com. He has authored a new book on the implications
of ongoing energy geopolitics, Russian Rubicon: Impending Checkmate of
the West .
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