- The most significant outcome of the recent G8 Summit
at Heiligendamm was not Chancellor Merkel's "victory" on the
contentious issue of greenhouse gas emissions. It was the shrewd chess
play by Russia's President Vladimir Putin on the US Missile Defense strategy
for Europe.
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- Putin outplayed his US counterpart Bush as he laid on
the table a new proposal to deal with Washington's ostensible argument
why it must build its ballistic missile defense system in Poland, the Czech
Republic and perhaps also Ukraine and Bulgaria. The proposal was as simple
as it was devastating for the US argument in favor of Czech and Polish
ABM sites.
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- At a joint press conference following their private talks,
Putin declared, "We have our own ideas. I outlined them in detail.
The first proposal involves the joint use of the Gabala radar station that
Russia leases from Azerbaijan. I spoke with the President of Azerbaijan
about this just yesterday. Our present agreement with Azerbaijan would
allow us to do this and the President of Azerbaijan stressed that he would
be happy if his country could contribute to ensuring global security in
this way.
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- "We can do this automatically," Putin added,
"and in this case the system we established would include all of Europe
without exception, rather than simply one part of the continent. This would
completely eliminate the possibility of missiles falling on European countries
because they would fall either into the sea or into the ocean. It would
eliminate the need -- or, more accurately -- allow us to refrain from changing
our position and retargeting our missiles..."
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- US replies
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- After this press conference Bush's spokesman announced
that he had taken ill. More likely Mr Bush had to get briefed and fast
how to respond to the unexpected Russian offer. Condi Rice even admitted
they were caught off guard. The Russian President called their bluff before
the world press.
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- The response didn't take long. On June 15 General Henry
Obering, head of the US Missile Defense Agency declared the Russian proposal
wouldn't help against the "Iran threat" and installing a US radar
system in the Czech Republic and a missile base (sic) in Poland was the
"best possible decision given studies of possible flight trajectories
of long-range ballistic missiles the Islamic Republic was working on"
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- A day earlier at a NATO defense ministers' meet, US Defense
Secretary Gates stated the US would go ahead with its plans for a missile
defense system in Eastern Europe whether or not any agreement is reached
on an alternative Russian proposal.
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- In brief, Washington's response has been a parody of
Admiral Farragut's famous cry: "Damn the missiles; full speed ahead!"
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- The US made a formal request in January to place a radar
base in a military area near Prague, and interceptor missiles in neighbouring
Poland as part of a US-controlled missile defense shield. In doing
so, Washington, we should recall, claimed rogue missile attacks from Iran
or North Korea as justification.
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- The world could well look back to Heiligendamm as the
last chance the major powers had to avoid thermonuclear destruction. Sound
overly dramatic? The day after he made his proposal to Mr Bush, Putin called
an open press conference with all invited G8 media.
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- Why Putin is right
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- A western reader of mainline press would conclude that
Russia has unilaterally reverted to its Cold War stance and threatens world
peace. The reality is a little different. As Putin told the G8 press in
comments almost completely blocked out in western media, "if this
missile system is put in place, it will work automatically with the entire
nuclear capability of the United States. It will be an integral part of
the US nuclear capability."
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- In other words, missile "defense" is not defensive
at all. It is offensive. If one of two nuclear opponents has nuclear strike
ability and even a modest shield against retaliation from the other, he
has what NATO strategists have dreamed of since the mid-1950's: Nuclear
Primacy. You can simply dictate terms of surrender to the other. The first
nation with a nuclear missile shield would de facto have 'first strike
ability.' Quite correctly, Lt. Colonel Robert Bowman, Director of the US
Air Force missile defense program, recently called missile defense, "the
missing link to a First Strike."
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- We can dismiss the argument about Iran missiles. The
Azeri offer of Putin for US missile shield would stand on the Iran border.
The current US plans for Europe call to mind the September 2000 report
which in addition to calling for regime change in Iraq also demanded upgraded
priority to missile defense as a tool to "project US power."
That report, 'Rebuilding America's Defenses,' by the hawkish Project for
the New American Century, where Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld were members,
declared, 'The United States must develop and deploy global missile defenses
to defend the American homeland and American allies, and to provide a secure
basis for US power projection around the world.'
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- In his remarks at Heiligendamm, Putin reminded the press
it was not Russia but the USA which started the new confrontation, when
it unilaterally abrogated the US-Russian Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty
in December 2001. Then Washington has supported color revolutions and pro-NATO
regime changes on Russia's borders. It has brought into NATO Poland, Latvia,
Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia
and Slovenia, formerly of Yugoslavia. NATO candidates include the Georgia,
Croatia, Albania and Macedonia. Ukraine's President, Victor Yushchenko,
has tried to bring Ukraine into NATO. This is a clear message to Moscow,
not surprisingly, one they don't seem to welcome with open arms.
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- Putin noted with more than a little irony, "we have
removed all of our heavy weapons from the European part of Russia and put
them behind the Urals. We have reduced our Armed Forces by 300,000. We
have taken several other steps required by the ACAF. But what have we seen
in response? Eastern Europe is receiving new weapons, two new military
bases are being set up in Romania and in Bulgaria, and there are two new
missile launch areas -- a radar in Czech republic and missile systems in
Poland. And we are asking ourselves the question: what is going on? Russia
is disarming unilaterally. But if we disarm unilaterally then we would
like to see our partners be willing to do the same thing in Europe. On
the contrary, Europe is being pumped full of new weapons systems."
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- Russia will now likely leave the 1990 treaty on conventional
forces in Europe to reorganize its military posture. It will retarget its
missiles at EU and US targets. On June 14 Moscow announced successful tests
of a new type of ballistic missile that will reportedly penetrate any US
missile defense. The new Cold War is underway. How that affects EU-Russian
relations, including in oil and gas, will be the political theme of the
rest of this decade.
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- © Copyright 2007 F. William Engdahl All Rights
Reserved
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