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H5N1 Still Spreading
And Killing

From Patricia Doyle, PhD

Hello Jeff - Dr. Henry Niman has been quite thorough in monitoring Avian Flu events in Indonesia.
And now a 30-year old woman has now died of bird flu in West Java, were clusters had been a problem previously. Also, two children ages 1 and 3 are in hospital in critical condition and may die.
We must remember, Avian Influenza is evolving and recombining inserting genetic material that make it more and more likely to infect humans, and it is doing so on ITS OWN TIMETABLE.
Because we did not see the virus immediately go pandemic and spread human-to-human does not mean it won't do so. It has slowly been taking steps to become more human infective.
The world's population must be prepared for such an evolution of Avian Flu H5N1 should the virus go pandemic.
It would not be wise to depend upon governments for survival in an influenza pandemic. First of all, those in Federal, State and Local governments may, themselves, become victims of the virus. Remember how the local authorities responded to Hurricane Katrina, which, for the most part, was a local event effecting Louisiana and Mississippi. Imagine a worldwide pandemic, and the entire US, Mexico and Canada infected? The only one that people will be able to rely on will be "OURSELVES."
I, therefore, tell the skeptics who critique people warning of H5N1, I tell these critics "it is better to be prepared then to find yourselves and family infected and without food, water, medication and placed under  martial law and federal quarantines.
In this update:
1. West Java: suspected case (30-year-old woman)
2. Riau: 2 suspected cases (children)
West Java: Suspected Case (30-year-old woman)
Date: Sun 23 Sep 2007
Source: Channel NewsAsia, Agence France-Presse (AFP) report 
An Indonesian woman suspected of being infected with bird flu has died in the West Java city of Bandung, hospital sources there said Sunday [23 Sep 2007]. Samples from the 30-year-old woman have been sent for testing in Jakarta, said a staff member at Bandung's Hasan Sadikin general hospital who only identified himself as Herdi. A total of 2 tests must come back positive for the H5N1 virus before a victim is confirmed as part of the official bird flu death toll in Indonesia, which is the highest in the world at 85 [deaths among 106 cases. - Mod.CP]
The woman, who died on Saturday [22 Sep 2007], was showing symptoms of bird flu infection, such as fever, coughing, breathing difficulties, and low red blood count. Herdi declined to give further details, but the Koran Tempo [newspaper] said that the victim fell sick a few days after one of her pet birds died. Transmission usually occurs directly from birds to humans. The kind of bird involved has not been identified.
If confirmed to be infected with the H5N1 strain of the virus, the woman would be the 86th human fatality in the country; 21 other people have been infected by the deadly H5N1 virus strain that causes bird flu, but have so far survived. H5N1 is endemic in birds across nearly all of Indonesia.
Communicated by ProMED-mail
Riau: 2 Suspected H5N1cases (children)
Date: Mon 24 Sep 2007
Source: China View, Xinhua News Agency report 
(According to local media on Mon 24 Sep 2007) 2 Indonesian children were in critical condition at a hospital in Riau Province with doctors strongly suspecting them of having developed bird flu symptoms in the country where 84 (85 according to WHO as of 10 Sep 2007 - Mod.CP) people already died of the virus.
The 2 boys, ages one and 3, are being treated in isolated rooms at the Arifin Ahmad Hospital in the provincial capital of Pekanbaru, leading news website Detikcom said. [Detikcom quoted Dr. Azizman Saad with the hospital as saying, "They are suffering high fever and respiratory problems," and, "the condition of their lungs is deteriorating, with excessive liquid production."
Laboratory tests by the hospital indicated that the 2 patients had bird flu but further tests in Jakarta are needed for confirmation. Over the last 2 years, bird flu killed 3 people in Riau alone.
Communicated by ProMED-mail
If these suspected cases of H5N1 avian influenza are eventually confirmed by further laboratory testing they will become the 107th, 108th, and 109th cases to have occurred in Indonesia, and the deceased 30-year-old woman will become the 86th death. Previously there have been more cases in West Java (29) than in Riau (4).
A map showing the provinces of Indonesia is available at
http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/indonesi.pdf - Mod.CP
Patricia A. Doyle DVM, PhD Bus Admin, Tropical Agricultural Economics Univ of West Indies Please visit my "Emerging Diseases" message board at: http://www.emergingdisease.org/phpbb/index.php Also my new website: http://drpdoyle.tripod.com/ Zhan le Devlesa tai sastimasa Go with God and in Good Health 


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