- British women are harbouring a breast cancer 'time-bomb'
because of the high abortion rate and low number of children.
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- According to a paper to be published shortly by the Royal
Statistical Society, the number of cases of malignant breast cancer diagnosed
each year will, by 2030, have risen from 30,000 to more than 50,000. The
rise in abortions in recent decades, the fall in fertility, and the trend
to have first children later in life have already set in place an explosion
in the number of women suffering the disease.
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- The study, 'Legally Induced Abortion, Fertility and Age
at First Birth as Risk Factors in Female Breast Cancer', suggests that
the number of cases will rise by about 1.6 per cent a year over the next
30 years in England and Wales. The growth rate will be slightly lower in
Scotland, which has a lower abortion rate.
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- British women now have their first baby at an average
age of almost 30 and the aver age number of children per woman has fallen
to a record low of 1.7. About a quarter of women born in the early Seventies
are now expected to remain childless.
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- The number of abortions has risen steadily since it was
legalised in 1967, particularly at younger ages. Britain has the highest
teenage pregnancy rate in Europe, with the peak age for abortion being
around 19. Each year, about one in 30 women aged 16 to 25 have an abortion.
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- The pattern of abortion and births is different in Britain
to much of the rest of Europe. In many countries it is more usual to have
babies first and then use abortion when no more are wanted. In Britain
it is more usual to have abortions young and babies later.
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- One study has suggested that having an abortion before
a child, rather than the other way around, increases the chance of breast
cancer by up to four times. Cells in the breast differentiate and develop
during pregnancy but this process is severely disrupted by abortion. If
a woman has already given birth, the effect is less because the cells
will already have fully developed.
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- Patrick Carroll, an actuary who wrote the report, said:
'There's a lot of cancer in the pipeline - there is no doubt about the
upward trend.'
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- Professor Gordon McVie, the director general of the Cancer
Research Campaign, welcomed the study but said there were so many factors
contributing to breast cancer that developments were hard to predict. 'The
spread of low-fat diets will have a preventative effect and the morning-after
pill could radically alter the number of abortions. Prevention will also
work a lot better when we have identified all the genes involved in breast
cancer.'
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- Better screening and treatments also mean that the chances
of surviving breast cancer are improving rapidly. However, a rise in cases
would have severe implications for NHS resources. 'This increase hasn't
been anticipated by the Department of Health - where are the surgeons and
radiologists to deal with it?' said Carroll.
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