- As threats of military action against Iran continue to
issue from various spokesmen of the war party in the U.S., the Islamic
Republic has launched an ambitious initiative aimed at preventing war,
based on a comprehensive package of economic, political and security measures
on a vast regional plane. The package includes proposals to settle remaining
questions related to Iran's nuclear energy program, but is not limited
to that.
-
- It was Saeed Jalili, the new head of the Supreme National
Security Council and chief nuclear negotiator, who first announced the
initiative. As Acting Secretary of the Russian Security Council Valentin
Sobolev arrived in Tehran, April 28, Jalili declared that his government
was presenting the Russian delegation a package of proposals aimed at solving
the problems of the world. "The package is about the great questions
of the world," he said, "and the nuclear question could be the
subject of discussion." While declining to give details, he added,
"We spoke in detail with our Russian friend and we explained our vision.
Our approach could be a good basis for negotiation between the influential
powers of the world," according to AFP. Talks continued in the Iranian
capital for three days, including with Gholamreza Aghazadeh, head of Iran's
Atomic Energy Organization, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, and President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on return from his South Asian tour.
-
- Although both sides said the package would not be made
public yet, remarks made by Sobolev at a joint press conference April 28,
indicated that Russia had listened to Iran's proposals with keen interest.
He praised the expansion of relations with Iran "in all areas."
After their second round of talks on April 29, Jalili said of the package
that it "has provided a new opportunity for constructive cooperation
for restoration of regional and international peace and stability and those
who have adopted positive stands on the issue should welcome it."
Ahmadinejad, following his talks with the Russian envoy, indicated that
the discussions aimed at introducing a new international order. "The
might of the United States and some other countries speaking the language
of force that used to dictate international relations after the Second
World War is now rapidly vanishing," The same day, the Iranian student
news agency ISNA reported that, following that meeting, Sobolev, "said
his country hails Iran's package of proposals covering a wide range of
issues including Iran's nuclear program." TASS said Sobolev explicitly
ruled out any Iranian weapons program. "We believe," he said,
"that Iran is not engaged in any military nuclear research, but we
are confident that not only Russia should think so but all countries that
are involved in the settlement of the situation [revolving around the Iranian
nuclear program]."
-
- Further confirmation of Russia's positive response, came,
albeit indirectly, from the top. Sobolev announced to RIA , "An oral
message from Russian President Vladimir Putin was conveyed to Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at a meeting. The substance of it is that Russia confirms
the principles of mutual relations (with Iran) and her policy will not
depend on who is in power," a reference to the new president Dmitry
Medvedev.
-
- While talks were going on with the Russian delegation,
Jalili informed Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey of the initiative
by telephone, saying it should be considered at the next meeting of the
five permanent memers of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany.
-
- The Mystery Package
-
- The content of the Iranian package has remained shrouded
in secrecy, but certain features have emerged. Alaeddin Borujerdi, head
of Iran's parliamentary commission on national security and foreign policy,
spoke of the fact that it would guarantee the country's enrichment rights.
According to well-informed Iranian sources, the initiative develops the
idea of an international consortium for the enrichment of uranium, on Iranian
territory. This idea had been floated by Tehran earlier, when the President
issued an invitation to international partners to participate. Most important,
it has also been under consideration by a group of U.S. figures opposed
to the war policy of the administration, led by former diplomat Thomas
R. Pickering. Together with William Luers and Jim Walsh, Pickering outlined
the idea in an article, "A Solution for the US-Iran Nuclear Standoff,"
published in The New York Review of Books in its March 20 issue. (<http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21112>www.nybooks.com/articles/21112)
The paper stated that the authors had been part of "a group of former
American diplomats and regional experts" who "have been meeting
directly and privately with a group of Iranian academics and policy advisers."
The article stated: "We propose that Iran's efforts to produce enriched
uranium and other related nuclear activities be conducted on a multilateral
basis, that is to say jointly managed and operated on Iranian soil by a
consortium including Iran and other governments." This approach reflected
a similar idea worked out by the International Crisis Group, of which Pickering
is a member, and presented to an international conference in Berlin in
March 2006. (1) In a section entitled, "Turning Iran's Enrichment
Activities into a Multilateral Program," the article goes on to suggest
that "the Iranian government would allow two or more additional governments
(for example, France and Germany) to participate in the management and
operation of those activities within Iran." It notes that, of course,
several Iranian officials, including Ahmadinejad, had "already publicly
endorsed a multilateral solution."
-
- However, as Iranian sources pointed out to this author,
Tehran, significantly, did {not} address Paris or Berlin, but rather Moscow.
Russia is considered the priority interlocutor due to the special relationship
that exists between the two countries, epitomized by Russia's participation
in building the Bushehr nuclear plant, but also because the Russians, unlike
the Germans and French, have refused to let the nuclear issue become a
casus belli. Russia and China have succeeded in blocking more hostile sanctions
through the Security Council, and are both fully aware of the danger that
the issue might be exploited by the war party in London and Washington,
to justify military aggression. For this reason, the Russian government
has been insisting that Iran return to the negotiating table with the 5+1
group. On March 31, Ambassador to the U.N. Vitaly Churkin urged Tehran
to restart such talks. That was just prior to Sobolev's visit. And China
had taken the unprecedented initiative of convening a meeting of the permanent
five in Shanghai in mid-April, to seek a solution; although the meeting
yielded no solution, it underlined Beijing's concern that war could be
on the agenda otherwise.
-
- Iran expressed its readiness to settle all remaining
questions related to the controversial program, just a week prior to Sobolev's
mission. On April 21-22, a delegation of the International Atomic Energy
Agency led by Oli Heinonen met with Iran's leading nuclear officials, including
Mohammed Saeedi, Iran's IAEA envoy Ali-Asghar Soltanieh, and several AEOI
and foriegn ministry representatives. Iran announced it would cooperate
in clarifying anything that had to be settled. IAEA chied Mohammad ElBaradei
did not hesitate to praise the move. "That is certainly a milestone,"
he said, "and hopefully by the end of May we will be in a position
to get the explanation and clarification from Iran as to these alleged
studies," referring to studies that allegedly Iran had made regarding
nuclear weapons. He said this was "the only remaining topic for us
to investigate about past and present Iran nuclear activities."
-
- But, the nuclear issue is merely one aspect of Tehran's
global package. The rest is of a strategic nature.
-
- As noted above, Ahmadinejad was visiting South Asia when
Sobolev landed in Tehran, and his mission involved other components of
the package. The main focus of his talks was the Iran-Pakistan-India gas
pipeline project (IPI), which has been held up for various reasons, some
more real than others. Aside from bickering about the price India would
have to pay Pakistan, the main glitch was pressure that certain U.S. officials
were placing on New Delhi, to sabotage the agreement.
-
- Once it had been announced that Ahmadinejad would visit
India, the Bush administration moved into high gear. Tom Casey, State Department
spokesman, came out somewhat undiplomatically suggesting that India should
"use its influence" with Iran, to persuade it to give up its
uranium enrichment program. The Indian government was not amused. External
Affairs Ministry spokesman Navtej Sarna was quoted by Tehran Times April
23, saying, "Neither country needs any guidance on the future conduct
of bilateral relations as both countries believe that engagement and dialogue
alone lead to peace." He went on to develop the concept, saying, "Both
nations are perfectly capable of managing all aspects of their relationship
with the appropriate degree of care and attention." The foreign ministry
issued a statement which must have been somewhat embarassing for youthful
Washington: "India and Iran," it read, "are ancient civilizations
whose relations span centuries."
-
- Ahmadinejad's visit was a resounding success. In an April
29 press conference, he said that progreess was being made on the IPI.
"Ministers from the three countries," he was quoted by Arab News
as saying, "hope to reach a tripartite agreement in the next 45 days."
Construction on the pipeline is to begin in 2009, and should be completed
by 2012. The 2,600 km pipeline is to transport Iranian gas to Pakistan
and India. Prior to his visit to India, Ahmadinejad had been in Pakistan,
where he fine-tuned details of the project with President Parvaz Musharraf.
He also committed Iran to providing 1,100 MW of electricity to Pakistan,
to help it overcome energy shortages.
-
- Talks between Pakistan and India had also taken place
at the end of April, after which Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister
Murli Deora announced that the deal would be "clinched soon."
At an Islamabad press conference on April 25, IRNA reported that the oil
ministers of the two countries said they had reached agreement on "fundamental
issues," and that a final agreement could be signed in weeks, if not
days. One factor which may have nudged India in the direction of a deal,
is that China was showing interest in the project. In his meeting with
Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, Ahmadinejad said that the
IPI deal would soon be finalized "and my government will also welcome
the inclusion of China in the project."
-
- The crucial question of financing for the $7.4 billion
project, was being hammered out in the Asian Development Bank. According
to sources in the Pakistani Petroleum Ministry cited by the Tehran Times
on April 23, the ADB was ready to foot the bill. The ADB is also sponsoring
the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project,
in which Pakistan would import 3.2 billion cubic feet of gas, to be shared
with India.
-
- So much for pipelines. But Iran's "package"
contains much more. As Iranian sources have indicated, India is also committed
to invest in Iran's oil industry. And Sri Lanka, another stop on Ahmadinejad's
Asian tour, is looking forward to Iranian participation in $1.5 billion
worth of infrastructure projects, including the $450-million Uma Oya hydro
power project slated to produce 100 MW electricity, and an upgrading of
the country's oil refinery. In addiiton, Iran is ready to offer credits
for military equipment to be brought in from China and Pakistan, as well
as training.
-
- Beyond energy agreements, the Iranian package also deals
with developing transportation infrastructure. As reported in the Tehran
Times April 16, Iran and India signed an MoU for starting work on the India-Iran-Russia
railway line.
-
- When one puts all these bits and pieces together, then
a rather wonderful mosaic image emerges. As confirmed by Iranian sources,
what the Iranians are proposing in their new package is nothing less than
a blueprint for a new correlation of nations in Eurasia, whose collaboration
in developing continental infrastucture--nuclear energy, gas and oil pipelines,
and transportation--should establish the economic, and therefore political,
basis for true independence. Iran's Foreign Minister Mottaki made clear,
during his visit to Dushanbe on March 24, that his country wanted to become
a full-fledged member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a grouping
which includes Russia and China, along with the leading nations of Central
Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
-
- Not only: the Iranians are also moving in their more
immediate regional environment, to erect this alternative economic, political
and security structure. Most significant in this context, is the meeting
that took place in Tehran April 30, between Iranian Interior Minister Mostafa
Pourmohamadi and Saudi Arabian Deputy Interior Minister for Security Affairs
Ahmed bin Mohammad Al-Salem. The aim of this 2nd joint Iran-Saudi security
committee meeting was to implement the agreements the two countries had
reached in groundbreaking talks in October 2001, when they signed a joint
security agreement. At the same time, Iran had been engaged in talks with
Turkey on security. Iran's deputy interior minister for security and political
affairs, Abbas Mohtaj, had said that Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia had
reached some form of agreement on regional security. Add to this the ongoing
process of discussions between Iran and the members of the Gulf Cooperation
Council for establishment of a free trade zone, as well as for a regional
nuclear energy agreement, and it becomes clear that what is on the agenda
is nothing less than a regional economic-security arrangement.
-
- The Iranian leadership has understood that, in order
to face the continuing threat of militrary aggression by the war party,
it must not only mobilize its military capabilities, as a defensive measure,
but, more importantly, that it must move in a positive direction, to build
the economic-strategic alliances in the immediate Persian Gulf region,
and in the broader regional context -- Russia, Central Asia, India, China.
This is precisely what Tehran is doing. This is the signifance of the "package."
-
-
- NOTE
-
- 1. The ICG proposal was the most far-reaching and detailed.
The Iranian participants at the conference signalled their overall approval.
See EIR, April 7,2006 for a report on the conference and interviews with
the Iranian representatives as well as with Tim Guldimann, former Swiss
ambassador to Tehran.
-
- To contact the author: <mailto:mirak.weissbach@googlemail.com>mirak.weissbach@googlemail.com
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