- Russian soldiers and marines entered Abkhazia by land
and from Russian Black Sea naval vessels, which were ordered to block Georgian
ports against arms delivery by sea. This opened a third front in Russia's
war with Georgia on Day Three of the armed conflict.
-
- At midday, Ukrainian military circles indicated the possibility
of closing Russia's main Black Sea base of Sevastopol to naval ships blockading
Georgian ports. Moscow may well react violently to this counter-blockade
against its navy.
-
- In the face of President George W. Bush's demand for
an immediate withdrawal of Russian troops and support for international
mediation, Moscow poured an additional 10,000 men and armor into South
Ossetia Sunday as well - and Russian jets bombed a military airfield outside
the Georgian capital of Tbilisi.
-
- Under heavy fire, Georgia "temporarily" pulled
its soldiers from the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, but stayed
in the region and denied its surrender. President Mikhail Saakashvili asked
the United States to act as mediator with Moscow and appealed to the Russians
to stop "this madness."
-
- Prime minister Vladimir Putin, for his part, accused
Georgia of ethnic cleansing. As disputed casualty figures climbed, civilians
were increasingly bearing the brunt of the bloodshed and hardship.
-
- Two Georgian towns, Gori and the Black Sea naval, military
and oil port of Poti, also took casualties and heavy damage from Russian
air strikes.
-
- DEBKAfile's military analysts reported Saturday: Tiny
Georgia with an army of less than 18,000, having been roundly defeated
in South Ossetia, cannot hope to withstand the mighty Russian army in Abkhazia,
even after initial successes. Therefore, President Mikhail Saakashvili,
who was planning to join NATO, must consider both breakaway regions lost
to Georgia and gained by Russia.
-
- Moscow has thus achieved payback for the US-NATO success
in detaching Kosovo from Serbia and approving its independence. The Russians
have also signalled a warning to Ukraine, the Caucasus and Central Asia
against joining up with the United States and the NATO bloc in areas which
Moscow deems part of its strategic sphere of influence
-
- After the severance of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from
Georgia, four follow-up Russian steps may be postulated:
-
- 1. The two separatist provinces will proclaim their independence,
just like Kosovo.
-
- 2. Russia will continue to exercise its overwhelming
military and air might to force the pro-American Saakashvili's capitulation.
-
- 3. The Georgian president cannot last long in office
after suffering this major loss of territory and national humiliation.
Moscow aims to make Washington swallow a pro-Russian successor.
-
- 4. Moscow's South Ossetia-Abkhazia victory against Georgia
and its Western backers will serve as an object lesson for Russia's own
secessionist provinces such as Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushettia not to
risk defying Russian armed might. Prin
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