- VIENNA -- The disruption
of oil flows via Georgia during the recent violence has made
that route significantly less attractive for Caspian oil exporting countries,
with some concluding they have no choice but to go via Russia given Iran's
international isolation but at least a few thinking about using Iran to
gain greater freedom of maneuver relative to Moscow.
- If the governments of the region do decide to ship some
or all of their oil via Iran, that would have three serious geopolitical
consequences that may rival some of the already enormous geopolitical fallout
from Russia's decision to invade Georgia and to recognize Abkhazia and
South Ossetia (www.nr2.ru/economy/193763.html ).
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- First, given the enormous appetite for oil in the West
and Pacific rim, such a shift in Caspian exports would likely put enormous
pressure on Washington to soften its approach to Tehran, especially if
the United States wants to support the effective independence of the post-Soviet
states and thus has no desire to see the oil flow through the Russian Federation.
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- Second, Iran's willingness to serve as the route out
for Caspian basin oil (or as a market for some of it) would likely set
it on a collision course with Moscow, which has made it very clear that
it wants to control all oil coming out of the former Soviet space and which
would view any change in Iran's approach or Western hostility to Tehran
as not in Russia's interest.
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- And third, such a shift would almost certainly affect Turkey and
its relations not only with the post-Soviet Turkic states but also with Russia.
Ankara's ties with the former would likely become less important given
that oil would be flowing via Iran, and it ties with Moscow would likely
strengthen by means of some kind of condominium in the Southern Caucasus.
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- Beyond doubt, many countries, including both the United
States and Russia, albeit for very different reasons, will do what they
can to prevent such a shift, but the changes in Georgia and in the international
system after Georgia mean that the use of such a route with all the consequences
it would entail is no longer as unthinkable as it was a month ago.
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- The Georgian government and many commentators have suggested
that blocking the east-west flow of oil from the Caspian via Georgia,
a route that bypasses Russia, was one of the most important reasons
behind Moscow's decision to introduce troops there, an argument both Moscow and
other analysts have heatedly denied.
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- But however that may be, Natalya Kharitonova, a regional
analyst at Moscow State University, argues that it is important to focus
on "the concrete facts" including both the way in which Russia's
action made Georgia less attractive as a transit corridor and Iran potentially
a much more interesting one ( www.ia-centr.ru/expert/2067/).
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- Among the "facts" she lists are the following:
"the use of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Supsa oil pipeline, of
the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline and of a number of other transportation
units as well as the cessation of rail deliveries of oil to the Georgian port of Batumi was
stopped" because of the conflict.
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- That in turn, she notes, forced Baku not only
to reduce the amount of oil it pumped but also "to search for alternative
routes for the transportation of this resource. As a result, Azerbaijani
oil has been flowing through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline. [And] Turkey intends
to purchase additional gas fromRussia and Iran to compensate."
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- At the same time, the Moscow scholar says,
"Iran for example has decided to build the Neka-Jask pipeline
as a competitor to Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhan." Earlier this week, Iranian
sources reported that Azerbaijan had begun exporting some of
its oil exports via Iran, although some in Baku denied this
(
- www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=67534§ionid=351020103 ).
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- A commentary in the Baku newspaper "Echo" today,
indicates that Azerbaijan hopes to develop the east-west pipelines in Georgia
but points out that analysts there and in other regional oil-exporting
countries are looking at the Iranian route in the hopes of avoiding the
consequences of using the Russian one ( www.echo-az.com/economica01.shtml, August
30 ).
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- Ilham Shaban, the president of the Baku Center of Oil
Research, told the paper that "all Western oil companies would like
to work in Iran" but can't easily because of American opposition.
But now "invoking the situation in Georgia, they are beginning
to advise official Washington to review its relations with Iranian
so as to allow them to begin work there."
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- He and other experts noted that because of the events
in Georgia, "Azerbaijan began to export its oil to international
markets through Iran," even as it sent some of its oil northward
via Russia an example of Badu's "balanced" foreign
policy. But Azerbaijan was not the only regional country to use Iran during
this crisis: Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan did so as
well.
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- And another Azerbaijani expert, Gubad Ibadoglu, the head
of the Center for Economic Research, pointed to three other reasons the
Caspian basin states are now likely to reconsider Iran as a route:
First, it is common practice for exporters to want to have multiple pipelines
rather than be at the mercy from disruptions of a single one.
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- Second, exporting oil through Iran to the Gulf
is significantly less expensive than sending it through Georgia and Turkey or
through Russia. And third and this may be especially significant
in the case of Azerbaijan oil from the Caspian going via Iran could
help meet the fuel needs of the northern part of that country, a section
populated by ethnic Azerbaijanis.
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- windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2008/08/window-on-eurasia-will-iran-become.html
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- The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility
of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Uruknet
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- http://www.uruknet.de/?s1=1&p=46829&s2=31
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