- Russia is determined to bring NATO's expansion eastward
to a halt. Can it prevail? asks Eric Walberg
-
- NATO's metamorphosis from Cold War Euro-policeman into
the unabashed global military arm of the United States over the past 18
years has left a trail of debris from the Balkans to Afghanistan that will
take decades to clear. It is a flagrant violation of the agreement James
Baker III made with Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev that the US would
not extend the borders of NATO eastwards in return for Moscow allowing
a united Germany to be a member of NATO. Russia was still in disarray and
in no position to protest when the Eastern European countries and the Baltics
joined, but as this policy of expansion turned into a blatant encirclement
of Russia and a conquest of the Middle East, a furious, now self-confident
Russia has finally drawn the line, at least in its immediate neighbourhood,
with Georgia and Ukraine the last straws.
-
- In a provocative analogy, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev
called Georgia's 8 August attack on Ossetia Russia 's 9/11, and said Russia
would react the same even if Georgia is accepted as a prospective member
of NATO. He announced to the Russian Information Agency 31 August "Five
Points of Russian foreign policy" already dubbed the Medvedev Doctrine,
as a response to what we might call the Bush I/ Clinton / Bush II Doctrine,
i.e., the dismemberment of the USSR / Russia to ensure a US-dominated unipolar
world. They include:
-
- -a commitment to the principles of international law,
- -a statement that "the world should be multipolar",
- -the wish to have peaceful friendly relations with all
nations,
- -the intent to protect its citizens "wherever they
may be", and
- -the decisive fifth point: "as is the case of other
countries, there are regions in which Russia has privileged interests.
These regions are home to countries with which we share special historical
relations and are bound together as friends and good neighbours. We will
pay particular attention to our work in these regions and build friendly
ties with these countries, our close neighbours."
-
- The crisis in Georgia will be seen by future historians
as the beginning of the end for the grandiose plans of the US to bring
its version of a New World Order in Eurasia to fruition, if not "Russia's
9/11". Instead of a seemingly inexorable march towards the Volga and
the dismantling of the Russian Federation - recall this was Hitler's goal
- we are now witnessing war preparations at full tilt across the globe,
with little Georgia as the catalyst.
-
- The spider's web of intrigue surrounding Georgia is thick
indeed. It even reaches as far as Iran , which Israel appeared to be preparing
to attack using nearby Georgian bases as a launching pad. This plan has
been thwarted for the moment, though Iran proceeded last week with its
war games to test its defences in anticipation of a US/Israeli attack from
farther afield.
-
- As Georgia welcomes a permanent US military presence
to help restore its battered army, Russia is expanding its military presence
at Tajikstan's Gissar Airport. As the US positions missiles in Russia's
neighbours Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia is preparing to hold joint
naval drills with US neighbour Venezuela (10-14 November) and station long-range
anti-submarine patrol aircraft there "temporarily".
-
- The Russian navy has resumed its (or rather its predecessor's)
presence in different regions of the world's oceans. A naval task force
from Russia's Northern Fleet conducted a two-month tour of duty in the
Mediterranean Sea and North Atlantic from December 2007 to February 2008.
-
- Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko
insisted that Russia's decision to send its armed forces to Venezuela was
made before Russia's war with Georgia. "This deployment had been planned
in advance, and it's unrelated to the current political situation and the
developments in the Caucasus." But the announcement was made just
a week after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned that Russia would mount
an unspecified response to recent US aid shipments to Georgia.
-
- Thankfully, the war is still at the level of hot air.
"Go ahead and squeal, Yankees," Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez
said in a national broadcast in which he announced the exercises. The US
mocked the announcement. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack poked
fun at Russia's navy, expressing surprise that "they found a few ships
that can make it that far." Just in case Venezuela is too far from
US shores for the outmoded Russian vessels, Russia has signaled it is keen
to restore military and intelligence ties with Cuba. There are rumours
it is seeking a naval base in Vietnam.
-
- Not to be left out of the increasingly complex maritime
equation, in June the US Navy announced it was re-establishing the Fourth
Fleet, disbanded in 1950, which would direct naval operations in the Caribbean
and Latin America. It is also negotiating with Georgia and Turkey to establish
a naval base at the Georgian port of Poti. One of the responsibilities
of US Special Forces in the region is to ensure the security of an oil
pipeline passing through Georgia.
-
- As US "aid" flows to the Black Sea in US warships,
Russian military hardware flows to the Caribbean, as Venezuela recently
bought 24 Russian Sukhoi fighter jets, as well as submarines and missiles.
Chavez has said that he would allow Venezuela to be a strategic base for
Russian bombers should it be required. "In Venezuela they will always
have a green light, they will be welcome, because Russia is an ally of
Venezuela," said Chavez. He proceeded to expel the US ambassador last
week until after the November presidential elections.
-
- Sergei Markov, a United Russia Duma member, sees this
as posturing rather than the prelude to setting up a permanent base in
the Americas. "We need bases on the territory of Iran and Syria where
our strategic interests lie." While it indeed looks like Russia will
re-establish a permanent presence in the Mediterranean using a Soviet-era
base in Tartus, Syria, this talk of bases in Iran is a new development.
It is rumoured that Russia may set up bases there and supply Tehran with
the cutting edge S-300 missile system to help protect its nuclear facilities
from airstrikes.
-
- But apart from Venezuela, the main posturing is going
on in Tbilisi, where President Mikhail Saakashvili insisted the West would
help his country regain control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the separatist
regions of Georgia recognised as independent nations by Russia and a trickle
of other countries, including Nicaragua and Belarus. "Our territorial
integrity will be restored, I am more convinced of this than ever,"
Saakashvili said in a televised appearance. "This will not be an easy
process, but now this is a process between an irate Russia and the rest
of the world."
-
- The hot air and military strutting by this collection
of antagonists is beginning to look like the calm before the storm. If
it is true that US military were part of the invasion of South Ossetia,
if only as advisors, this could mean that Russian soldiers might have been
killed by Americans, something that never happened even during the height
of the Cold War. During the Cold War, "the sides were very careful
of each other. They were careful not to come too close," said Alexander
Pikayev. "The risk of direct military clashes is much higher. This
situation is much riskier than the Cold War." Both US presidential
candidates are talking tough, and vice presidential hopeful Sarah Palin
said, "We will not repeat a Cold War", presumably meaning she
preferred a hot one.
-
- In such a hair-trigger atmosphere, Ukraine and Georgia
can kiss any dream of joining the ersatz Western "defence" alliance
do svidania.
-
- Nevertheless, last week Vice President Dick Cheney toured
ex-Soviet countries the US considers threatened by Russia, including Ukraine,
Georgia and Azerbaijan, promising Georgia $1 billion (where do these nice
round sums come from?), vowing the US will continue to back the country's
NATO application and saying that Moscow's intervention "cast grave
doubt on Russia's intentions and on its reliability as an international
partner." In Ukraine, he spoke of the "threat of tyranny, economic
blackmail and military invasion or intimidation" from Russia . That
is an interesting slant on the Medvedev Doctrine. The reader can easily
conjure up appropriate words that Medvedev might use to describe the Bush
I/ Clinton/ Bush II Doctrine.
-
- Ukraine is now embroiled in a mud-slinging match, with
the collapse of the coalition government 3 September, when President Viktor
Yushchenko withdrew his support over the refusal of Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko to back the president in his support for Georgia and condemnation
of Russia. Yushchenko accused Tymoshenko of "treason and political
corruption", over her failure to back a pro-US stand, and of seeking
Moscow 's support of her likely presidential bid. Ukraine 's pro-Russian
former prime minister Viktor Yanukovich, who heads the Party of Regions,
did not rule out the possibility of forming a parliamentary majority with
the Yulia Tymoshenko bloc. Such a move would remove from the discussion
the entire issue of a Ukrainian application to join NATO. Tymoshenko could
well pull off a metaphorical coup by campaigning in the upcoming presidential
elections on a sober platform of peace with Russia , which would very likely
hand her the presidency with the support of the large Russian population
of Ukraine as well as astute Ukrainians.
-
- Another such scandal is brewing in Georgia itself, with
the arrest of former president Zviad Gamsakhurdia's son Tsotne as a Russian
spy smack in the middle of Cheney's visit to Georgia . He was charged in
late 2007 with an attempted coup and links with Russian security services
after opposition protests against Saakashvili. The voices of sensible Georgians,
fed up with President Mikheil Saakashvili's reckless chauvinism, are clearly
being cut in the bud, as he consolidates a very nasty dictatorship backed
by the Americans and Israelis. Of course, all Western media coverage of
Georgia slavishly supports this loose cannon, but Medvedev's description
of him as "a political corpse" probably is closer to the truth.
-
- It is hard not to sympathise with the Russians. The Black
Sea, once the domain of the Soviet navy, now is the home of three NATO
members - Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania - and two applicants, Georgia and
Ukraine . If the two applicants join the alliance, Russia 's Black Sea
coastline would be surrounded by NATO. The volatile Caucasus would then
be the playground of the US .
-
- "Now it looks like there is a certain red line that
exists in the heads of Russian leadership and they are willing to do anything
to stop it from being crossed," said Nikolai Petrov, at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace. "And this red line is Ukraine and
Georgia joining NATO."
-
- Russia 's success in thwarting the Georgian attempt to
wrest back Ossetia has shown its resolution. Russian warships have been
sent to the coast of nearby Abkhazia. In the relatively close proximity
in which the Russian and American ships operate there and elsewhere in
the Black Sea , one misunderstanding could create an international incident.
"We remember very well the Tonkin Gulf incident" in which untrue
reports of North Vietnamese ships firing on US ships started the Vietnam
War, said Markov. This was seconded by Republican California Congressman
Dana Rohrabacher in a sharp criticism of US support for the Georgian attack.
-
- Aleksandr Dugin, whose ideas about America's weakening
geopolitical standing are popular with many Russian leaders, said Russia
was challenging US dominance and that confrontation may be unavoidable.
Russia's move into Georgia was "an irreversible decision that will
mean in the future a serious, profound, irreversible confrontation with
the United States. The stakes are so high that Moscow has placed all its
chips on the table."
-
- It is not surprising that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation,
which includes Russia, China and the former Soviet Asian republics Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan , are supporting Moscow for "assisting
peace and cooperation in this region." Nor that Armenia and Belarus
also support Russia, and the non-Yushchenko forces in the Ukraine are backing
away from the flirtation with NATO. It is clear now that the US has insufficient
power to cope with the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. Both were
to have been an essential part of a US policy to militarily control Eurasian
rivals, especially Russia and China.
-
- If the Russians hold firm, and it is worth remembering
their spectacular defeat of the Nazis at Stalingrad in this regard, this
crisis will defuse with or without fireworks, US hawks will find their
feathers clipped, and the world will adjust to a "post-America"
multilateral sanity.
-
- The tide has already turned. The latter-day Dr Strangelove
was pointedly ignored on his cheerleading tour of countries supposedly
threatened by Russia, except by his pal Saakashvili, and the European Union
disregarded the US veepee's bluster, hammering out an agreement with Russia
to replace Russian troops with EU observers in undisputed Georgian territory
by 1 October.
-
- The bottom line here is a very mundane one: the EU is
Russia's neighbour and dependent on it for gas, whether her politicians
like it or not. It is one thing for the US to wage wars far from its shores,
as it is doing in Afghanistan and Iraq, or to play war games in other people's
backyards, as it is doing in Poland and Georgia, but it is quite another
thing to expect a war-weary Europe to sign up and prepare to freeze in
the dark.
-
- ***
-
- Eric Walberg writes for Al-Ahram Weekly. You can reach
him at www.geocities.com/walberg2002/
-
|