- Now we can make first conclusions of this swift-flowing
military campaign in the Caucasus and a diplomatic war- between Russia
and Georgia and between the Euro-Atlantic West and Russia.
- The number of armed groups (including military hardware)
was approximately the same on each side. Russia had the only serious advantage
thanks to its air forces. The opposite side possessed a greater variety
of 'instruments'- such as more advanced communication systems, perfect
knowledge of the territory and fortifications prepared in advance. Still,
there is hardly anyone who could doubt Russia`s military victory.
- It would be incorrect to compare Russian and Georgian
military potential (the thing some liberal journalists are fond of doing).
Weak transportation capacity of the Roksky tunnel and tough deadlines prevented
Russia from increasing its troops. But it did not turn out to be as necessary
as it seemed at the very beginning. Military experts say the Russian peacekeeping
forces had had chances to seize control over the territory without additional
support. Now it will take the Georgian army much time to recover from that
psychological stress they got during this 5-day war. Georgia has lost many
soldiers. Four thousand men- these figures are provided by the Russian
officials but still the statistics may be different. To lose 14% of the
overall quantity of troops in 5 days-is really a great blow.
- Yet we have not received exact data concerning Georgia`s
loses in air forces but they are certainly as big as those among the ground
troops. For the Republic of Georgia this is a catastrophe. According to
preliminary estimations, they lost 80 out of 230 tanks.
- It will take much time to restore Georgia's broken military
machine, which appears to be possible only under the following circumstances
(and still there are no guarantees): a) US and NATO allocate new funds
to train the aggressor b) they unblock the routes for delivering military
equipment. Moscow will hardly turn a blind eye on how the upgrade of the
Georgian army. The nearest channel is in Ukraine but it is almost exhausted.
Mikhail Saakashvili now may hope for deliveries by air or by sea, if Turkey
agrees to open the Straits and air corridors. But to spend new huge sums
on this would be unwise. It appears to be more effective to found US and
NATO bases in Georgia. It is just a matter of time to learn whether the
Pentagon has made such a decision or not.
- To avoid one-sided approach to the outcomes of the
military operation in South Ossetia, let us emphasize that the aggressor`s
machine was not destroyed completely. It means that Georgia will be determined
to have a revenge. We should be ready for the increasing terror threats
from Georgia. Moscow will be pressed over the
2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. Since they failed to boycott the Games in
Beijing, they will try to use this scenario in Russia. The blast on the
Loo beach in Sochi on August,7, came as the first warning to Russia. Moscow
has only two ways to follow: to defeat Georgia or (alas) to forget about
the Olympics. However, there is also a third way-to improve relations with
the West at the cost of new and very meaningful concessions...
- Now let us look at the situation from a political angle...
- The major thing is that Moscow has demonstrated its will
and decisiveness. The image of the Putin-Medvedev tandem worldwide is quite
positive. According to Dmitry Medvedev, the modern Russia has used force
for repelling the attack from within and, being morally strong, did the
right thing. Moscow`s direct participation helped to prevent Saakashvili
from implementing his other cruel plans. The authorities and the nation
stood close together these days. All the differences were forgotten
for a while. Now it is clear that Russians can be patriots not only during
the World Football Cup.
- Against all attempts of some western political analysts
and journalists to persuade the rest of the world that Moscow invaded the
"peace loving" Georgia (which looks more like a piranha),
Russia proved that it began a peacekeeping operation since it is interested
in maintaining stability on its southern borders. In Moscow they understand
it quite well that it is not Georgia they are dealing with but the United
States. One of the main aims of the Saakashvili regime was to provoke Russia
for the use of force in the conflict zone and show the world this "Russian
aggressor". If succeeded, Tbilisi (and Kiev as well) would have received
their long-expected NATO membership by the end of 2008. Their plot worked
only half-way. Georgian army was the first to lose its soldiers, and that
was Saakashvili`s first mistake. His other misfortune was the failure of
the blitzkrieg. The courage of the Ossetians, their nerve saved Russia`s
territorial integrity in the Caucasus.
- A fragile alliance between Russia and two NATO members,
France and Germany, was shattered. Although it was evident for everyone
that Russia did not invade Georgia but carried out its peacekeeping mission
there, Paris and Berlin expressed their dissatisfaction with the Russian
reaction. They simply pretended not to be aware that Moscow`s interference
took place after Tbilisi attempted to start genocide of South Ossetians
as nation and then do the same thing in Abkhazia. Being aware of its
historical mission, Russia certainly had nothing to do but interfere. But
Russians should better expectano signs of gratitude from the West as democracy
is the most cynical and the least moral form of political order the humankind
invented over the past 2000 years.
- So, the main aim of joint Georgian-American-Israeli authorities
was to cast doubt on Moscow`s non-aggressive foreign policy and justify
the aspirations of Tbilisi and Kiev for NATO membership. They also wanted
to make the old Europe believe that the deployment of US missile shield
there would do them only good. Today we are witnessing a new wave of unanimity
between Berlin and Washington on the issue of Euro-Atlantic integration,
and an immediate solution of a missile issue in Poland. The US shoot a
few rabbits at one shot: covered the war in South Ossetia in a way necessary
to blacken Russia, tamed the old Europe and now are preparing to set new
military bases in Georgia- former sovereign state...
- Although the massacre in South Ossetia came as a direct
blow meant for Russia and Europe, Georgia happened to be in the worst situation.
Washington has no plans to restore its territorial integrity. Americans
have begun active work with the leaders of Abkhazia. A vague status of
"unrecognized" will be used by the US not for the sake of Georgia
but for imposing a vassal system of rule and further separation of the
North Caucasus from Russia.
- A global geopolitical shift which occurred on the first
day of the conflict in South Ossetia will probably have very serious consequences.
As serious as those after the 9/11 attacks. A global system of international
relations is shattered. Old alliances cease to exist while the new ones
appear each day. Despite the US "global leadership", the situation
is too unpredictable to say that this American hegemony will last for ever.