- The United States has agreed to sell to Israel 1,000
of the very advanced bunker buster GBU-39 bombs. This is a major development
as the Bush Administration had denied previous recent Israeli requests
for large numbers of this weapon system. The GBU-39 has a stand off range
of 110 km and uses pop-out wings with extremely accurate fire and forget
technology. It is capable of penetrating 90 cm of steel reinforced concrete.
This indicates that the Israeli Government has succeeded in its request
that America allow it to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. The GBU-39s
will be used extensively in attacks on Iranian targets, as well as on Syrian
and Hezbollah high value targets in both Syria and Lebanon.
- The Israeli political landscape is about to change. I
have been expecting former Israeli Prime Minister, and super war hawk,
Benyamin Netanyahu to make a well timed major move. Current Israeli Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert is about to resign due to his ongoing criminal troubles.
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz are in
a tight battle to win the vote on Wednesday as Kadima Party Chairman, with
the right to attempt to form a new government. However, it appears that
Bibi Netanyahu has put together a deal with Labor Party leader, former
PM and current Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and the ultra-religious Shas
Party to form a government with Bibi as Prime Minister in a few days time.
- Count on Bibi Netanyahu lighting a blowtorch in the dry
kindling that is the Middle East.
- There is a real technical question if the GBU-39 can
destroy all of the key known or suspected Iranian nuclear sites, as well
as key military sites in Lebanon and Syria. The hardest sites are very
well protected. Some experts think that several dozen to a hundred plus
GBU-39s targeted at the same spot can take out even the deepest/most harden
site; others say that a micro or mini nuke will be required.
- The Israeli and American war planners may be counting
on all sides refraining from the use of WMD. Rather like Saddam held back
his 29 WMD armed (chemical and anthrax) Scud-type guided missiles during
the First Gulf War and like Hezbollah did during the Second Lebanon War
in 2006. If this is the strategy it is one very, very, massive risk to
- An effective attack on the Iranian nuclear program and
likely hidden sites will require a massive number of air strikes over the
Iranian land mass. Iran will respond with missile attacks from its territory
on Israel and with rocket and missile attacks from Lebanon and Gaza and
the West Bank. Israel has tried very hard to convince Syria to part company
with Iran but has had little success. Syria has a large number of guided
missiles that can reach virtually all parts of Israel.
- While the American supplied Israeli weapons, and the
Israeli produced guided missiles, are highly accurate the Iranian/Syrian
guided missiles are not so accurate (and the many tens of thousands of
unguided rockets in Lebanon and Gaza/West Bank are notoriously inaccurate).
This means that Israeli civilians will be hit hard if only non-WMD warheads
are used. The temptation for Israel to hit back at Iranian and Syrian population
centers will be very high. If this happens the cycle of escalation and
counter-escalation will likely get out of control; and this is assuming
that major efforts will be made to avoid mutual use of WMD in the first
- Israel has most likely over 600 nuclear warheads from
micro nukes to high mega tonnage hydrogen bombs, as well as advanced biological
weapons, chemical weapons, radiological weapons, and fuel air explosive
based weapons. The Iranian/Syrian side has radiological weapons, fuel air
weapons, chemical weapons, advanced biological weapons, and maybe a crude
nuclear device or two (doubtful but a remote possibility).
- The Iranians have made it clear that they will close
the Gulf to oil shipping in the event of a war. Americans have just had
a taste of $5/gallon gasoline with Hurrican Ike. A general Middle East
War could bring $10/per gallon gas prices to America. The world's economy,
already headed to a global depression, will be thrust into the worst depression
in human history.
- The Iranians are also apt to hit American targets in
the Middle East. In any case, any closing of the Gulf will bring a massive
American and allied response making the Middle East War a likley global
one as massive US/allied air attacks and naval attacks plummet Iran well
beyond what Israel began.
- If Iran feels that its population is seruously in danger
or that its existance as a nation state is at risk, she is apt to use her
strategic MAD (mutually assured destruction) force WMD (weapons of mass
destruction) on the west and Israel. These weapons are DNA recombination,
genetically engineered, advanced biological weapons; man-made viruses that
are designed to spread throughtout North America and western Europe using
humans as vectors ~ viruses that have never existed before and for which
we humans have NO DEFENSE. Iran began an advanced biowar program years
ago using out-of-work former Soviet advanced biowar experts, and currently
has a world-class advanced biowar program.
- Throw Russia and China into this mix and you have World