- A flurry of meetings last week - in Nice, Brussels and
Sharm El-Sheikh - show the changing face of Russian-Western relations,
says Eric Walberg
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- Russia 's struggle to become a respected player in world
affairs moved forward tentatively this past week with a Russian-European
Union summit in Nice. Participants said Friday that the meeting underlined
improved relations. The European trade commissioner, Catherine Ashton,
said talk had been "robust, but very open. Presidents Sarkozy, Barroso
and Medvedev were very direct with each other in the spirit of having a
dialogue." European Commission President José Manuel Barroso,
using rather "robust" diplomatic language, ridiculed the Russian
threat to station missiles in Kaliningrad, made just hours after Obama
had won the US presidential election last week: "If we start with
the idea that there are missiles on one side or the other, we come back
to the Cold War rhetoric which is, I would even say, stupid."
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- President Nicholas Sarkozy of France, who was host of
the Nice meeting between Russia and the 27 member-nations as EU president,
helped Medvedev back off. He made it clear that the US should reconsider
its missile defense plans in Poland and the Czech Republic . "Between
now and then," referring to talks on a new security architecture for
Europe - a Russian proposal - to be held by the Organisation for Security
and Cooperation in Europe , which includes the US and Russia , next June,
"please no more talk of anti-missile protection systems," Sarkozy
said. The deployment of a missile defense system "would bring nothing
to security in Europe ." The Russian leader welcomed Sarkozy's conciliatory
approach, saying that all countries "should refrain from unilateral
steps" before discussions on European security take place. "If
we share one home, we should get together and make agreements with one
another," meaning the Russians will not follow through with their
threat if the US agrees to a "Zero Option" with regards missiles
in Europe .
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- Although he holds the rotating presidency of the EU,
Sarkozy was actually moving beyond his official mandate, since the bloc
has little power over defense matters. The Czechs, who take over the EU
presidency in January, and Poles were furious with Sarkozy. "We hope
that the project will continue," Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski
said after meeting his Czech counterpart Karel Schwarzenberg. Polish Prime
Minister Donald Tusk huffed Thursday that Russia was not part of the plan.
"The anti-missile shield is the subject of contracts between Poland
and the United States , and other countries are not - and will not - be
participants in these negotiations." Alexandr Vondra, the Czech deputy
prime minister, said he was "surprised" by Sarkozy's comments,
which, he said, contradicted French statements at the NATO meeting in Bucharest,
and exceeded Sarkozy's purview as EU president. "There was nothing
in the EU mandate to talk about missile defense."
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- This is a fine example of Sarkozy at his hyperactive
best, one where he used his antennae well, sensing the shifting weather
patterns and attempting to divert a needless and destructive storm, which,
he would no doubt add in his own defence, would hit the Poles and Czechs
even harder than the rest of Europe . This whole episode shows the weakness
of the EU: pipsqueaks are vaulted into the diplomatic big leagues and can
pursue petty grudges which leave the EU helpless to pursue a sensible agenda.
French president Jacques Chirac was undermined in 2003 by these parvenues
who slavishly hung on every lie coming out of the US concerning Iraqi WMDs,
preventing a strong European resistance to the criminal invasion of Iraq
. Good for the Sark .
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- The French leader's nod to the Russian proposal for a
new European security structure also elicited jibes. The Euro fans of America
and foes of Russia see the Russian president's proposals as a direct attempt
to undermine NATO. And so what? This senseless Cold War relict merely raises
hackles and sticks its imperial nose where it doesn't belong. The
EU and Russia are already working together on peacekeeping -
through the UN - as seen with the current EUFOR mission in Chad, which
includes 320 Russians. Who needs NATO to police the world? Good for Medvedev.
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- Overriding squawks from Lithuania , Europeans also agreed
Monday to resume talks with the Russians on a longterm EU-Russia pact on
the economy, energy and security matters. Negotiations were suspended after
the Russian war with Georgia in August, but since then the financial crisis
has underlined the need for rapprochement. "We don't need a Cold War.
We need cool heads," said Barroso. Even Russophobe German Chancellor
Angela Merkel said, "I think it is better to talk with each other
than about each other."
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- While Russian and European leaders were extending olive
branches to each other in Nice, their foreign ministers were chattering
at a NATO meeting in Brussels about their latest pet project - putting
pressure on Turkey to deploy permanent NATO navy forces in the Black Sea
and the Bosphorus, one of the most strategic waterways of the world and
located in Turkish territorial waters. Turkey is rightly concerned that
such move would violate the 1936 Montreux Convention, which limits the
total weight of the warships that a country which does not border the Black
Sea can deploy to 45,000 tons, and eventually harm its sovereign rights
over the straits, not to mention its booming economic ties with Russia.
Turkey has long opposed the deployment of NATO navy forces on the Black
Sea, saying the region is perfectly safe and the Black Sea countries' joint
patrol missions are more than sufficient.
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- But these Euro and NATO intrigues are far less important
that the behind-the-scenes activities now going on in US conference rooms,
where president-elect Barack Obama's political plans for accommodating
Russia are now in high gear. Relations with Russia are the cornerstone
to the empire's success during Obama's presidency. The world, certainly
Europe and NATO, is now holding its breath, waiting to see what Obama will
do about the missiles and the Georgians, with the ball firmly in his court.
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- Unfortunately, he can't hit it back for another two months.
In the meantime, the discredited Bush regime is doing its best to dig potholes
in the court and make Obama's task doubly hard. A fine example took place
last weekend in Sharm El-Sheikh , Egypt , with yet another of the pointless
meetings that Bush has sent his beloved Condoleezza Rice on. It took barely
an hour for Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to dismiss the supposedly
new set of proposals she brought concerning START (Strategic Arms Reduction
Treaty) and missile defense. "The current US proposals are insufficient
because the Bush administration is seeking to make the decision [on the
deployment of the missile shield] irreversible," a Russian source
said. Lavrov insisted that any new discussions on the European missile
shield should involve Russia , the US and the EU and must be based on respect
for common interests rather than on a unilateral decision made by Washington
. But absolutely no one is fooled by Bush anymore as his 76 per cent disapproval
ratings show. If anything, such tired attempts at covering the empire's
tracks merely give Obama more food for thought.
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- The tone Obama sets in relations with Russia will be
vital to the success of his presidency. Medvedev, like Obama, is still
an open book. In his state of the union address the same day as Obama's
stunning victory, Medvedev revealed ambitious plans to strengthen Russian
democracy, condemning state interference in elections, mass media, civil
society and the economy - all of which gives birth to corruption in the
bureaucracy. He proposed that those parties falling below the 7 per cent
threshold in parliamentary elections, yet reaching more than 5 per cent,
should be represented with at least one or two deputies in the State Duma,
increasing diversity, that only elected deputies should become governors
of Russia's regions or members of the Federation Council, and that local
governments and non-governmental organisations have greater say in the
legislative process. He called for less state control of the media: "Freedom
of speech should be secured by technological innovation. Experience shows
that it is practically useless to 'try to persuade' bureaucrats to leave
mass media alone. One should not try to persuade, but extend as broadly
as possible the space for the Internet and digital television."
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- If Obama wants to make any progress in the empire's affairs
abroad, be it in Afghanistan , Europe , Iraq , Iran , he will have to wrestle
the Cold Warrior Washington establishment into submission and make peace
with Russia . This will have the truly wonderful side-effect of strengthening
Medvedev's hand in his own struggle with statist authoritarians.
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- This is the way for America to encourage democracy around
the world - by refraining from threatening other countries and interfering
in their affairs. If American is not perceived as a threat by Russia, constantly
intriguing and pushing its European allies into "stupid" Cold
War stand-offs, Russia will be able to continue its halting, democractic
transformation.
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- ***
- Why the concern with Russia ?
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- Well, it has not a few trumps up its sleeve which Obama
would be wise to note:
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- * the perennial steel-fist-in-velvet-glove Russian gas
supplies to Europe, now strengthened by Gazprom's Southstream pipeline
plans which look set to scuttle the anti-Russian Nabucco pipeline plan.
The latter will hardly be feasible given the economic meltdown emanating
from the US and infecting the entire world. The Russian hold on European
gas supplies looks very secure.
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- * its continued nuclear energy cooperation with Iran.
If the US expects to see any conciliatory move from Iran it will have to
take Russia into account.
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- * its control over the fastest and cheapest transit routes
for NATO military supplies to Afghanistan . They just happen to be the
rail and air links through Russia and former Soviet Central Asia. Already,
Russia has signalled it will not necessarily be so hospitable to NATO use
of these precious routes.
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- * the overriding US object in the near future: stablising
Iraq . The next few years in Iraq will be troubled, to say the least, and
Russian cooperation with the West will be vital.
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- * cooperation in dealing with the international financial
crisis and threatening world recession. The Russian economy has rapidly
integrated into the world economy during the past two decades, for better
or worse, bringing with it Russian mafia, liberal use of offshore banking
and other dubious western inventions. This means it is an important part
of any solution.
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- The Russian hold on gas supplies to Europe is nothing
to worry about. The Russians have always been reliable partners, from WWII
on, as long as the West plays ball and doesn't push them too hard. Measured,
stable diplomacy is all they ask. Iran threatens no one, despite hysterical
Israeli rhetoric, and will no doubt go on Obama's backburner, despite whispers
in his ear from the Zionists in his camp. Since Afghanistan and dealing
with the world depression are the centrepins of Obama's foreign policy,
he would be very foolish to provoke the Russians needlessly on high profile
but meaningless issues like the missiles and expanded NATO membership.
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- ***
- Eric Walberg writes for Al-Ahram Weekly. You
can reach him at >www.geocities.com/walberg2002/
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