- Bringing the threat of war to Russia's borders is having
wide-ranging repercussions, argues Eric Walberg
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- As Russian troops marched to celebrate the victory over
Nazi Germany 8 May, NATO troops - 1,300 of them from 10 member countries
and six "partners" - were beginning their month-long Cooperative
Longbow/Lancer war "games" on Russia's southern border. In deference
to Moscow, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Serbia decided not to participate
in the NATO exercises, preferring to send their diplomats to Red Square
in homage to the untold Russian sacrifice in pursuit of world peace. According
to Russian MP Sergei Abeltsev, the NATO decision to hold the drills in
Georgia during the WWII Victory Day celebrations was a "total revision
of the history of the Great Patriotic War".
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- The games were greeted by Georgian troops with a coup
attempt against their beleaguered President Mikheil Saakashvili, though
there is speculation that this was something dreamed up by the Georgian
president himself (he has done stranger things, like declaring war on Russia
). This latest bizarre twist, the argument goes, gives him ammunition in
his battle with protesters - they have been demanding his resignation for
over a month and vow to keep protesting till he's gone. Lucky for Saak,
riot police are still loyal to him and broke up an anti-NATO rally by thousands
converging on parliament on the eve of the games.
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- According to Russian Ambassador to NATO Dmitri Rogozin,
Saakashvili "has long been aiming to bring Georgia's domestic conflict
to the international level. It's for this reason that he shot down our
military - to draw us into the August war. It's for this reason that he
wanted American marines to come to Georgia, to draw Americans into that
war. This man is dangerous for the world," Rogozin said. In support
of the US darling, Democratic Senator John Kerry and Republican Congressman
David Dreier (note the bipartisan unity) are calling for a free trade agreement
with Georgia.
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- NATO is busy as a bee these days. Apart from its centrepiece,
Afghanistan, where deaths of both Afghans and occupiers are increasing
daily, and practising for God-knows-what in Georgia, it was recently flexing
its naval muscle in neighbouring Turkey, where delegates from 27 countries
just wrapped up NATO's annual Maritime Commanders Meeting (MARCOMET 2009).
Its theme this year was "The Future Security Environment - Implications
for Navies" and was focused on terrorism, piracy and conflicts deriving
from energy and resources issues. No doubt it will be deploying forces
on the Horn of Africa soon pursuing those pesky pirates.
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- Prague is also a hive of activity these days. It hosted
a meeting of the Eastern Partnership (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia,
Ukraine and Moldova ) 7 May, followed by a summit dubbed "Southern
Corridor - New Silk Road of European and Central Asian countries",
seeking a non-Russian route for gas imports from Central Asia. The summit
participants included Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan,
Egypt, Iraq and Turkey. The Czech EU official said that after years of
wavering, Europe had no time to lose in securing alternatives to Russian
gas.
- If the intent in all this is to make Russia mad, it is
working. On the first day of the Georgian military exercise, Russia expelled
two NATO envoys.
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- Rogozin stated that his country would not attend a NATO
military meeting planned for this week. Russian lawmaker Sergei Abeltsev
has floated the idea of a response to the NATO move that would entail Cuba
and Venezuela taking part in "large-scale drills" in the Caribbean
Sea on 2 July. Nicaragua intends to buy Russian aircraft and helicopters
for its armed forces, and will be sure to join in.
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- The battleground between East and West these days thus
includes not only Georgia, but the Czech Republic, Poland and the Baltics.
Not only is US President Barack Obama continuing Bush's policy of provoking
Russia in Georgia, but he made no indication in his first 100 days that
he would reverse the planned Star Wars missile bases in the Czech Republic
and Poland. Fortunately grassroots Czech opposition to the proposed base
resulted in the defeat of the conservative government and it looks like
the Czech base will not go ahead. Strong opposition in Poland has so far
not managed to make a similar political inroad.
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- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the US
of using the Iran issue as a pretext to set up its missile shield in Russia
's backyard. "The way it is designed has nothing to do with Iran 's
nuclear programme. It is aimed at Russian strategic forces, deployed in
the European part of the Russian Federation ," Lavrov told Euronews.
"We are being very frank about this with our American colleagues and
hope that our arguments are heard. Iran's nuclear programme is a separate
issue. We approach it according to a key principal - preventing the spread
of weapons of mass destruction."
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- As if the Czech government's anti-Russian conferences
and the war games aren't enough, the Czech air force are now "protecting"
the airspace of the three Baltic NATO members, the first time that the
Czech military's tactical air force has been deployed in a foreign operation
since the end of WWII. The Czech aircraft will be ready to take action
in case of a military threat to the Baltic countries and to provide them
with help.
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- But what "threat" is there in the Baltics,
other than one invented by trigger-happy NATO planners playing yet more
war "games" with Russia ?
- This scheming has not gone unnoticed by Moscow. "We
are not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a new Cold War, but
we don't want one," Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said recently.
In The Grand Chessboard (1997) Zbigniew Brzezinski predicted that the only
countries Russia could convince to join a defence pact might be Belarus
and Tajikistan. But the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
founded in 2002 in reaction to NATO expansion eastward now includes not
only Belarus and Tajikistan, but Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.
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- It, along with the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC),
the Russia-Belarus Union State and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
(SCO) are natural developments by countries concerned about what the US
and NATO are really up to. Russian General Leonid Ivashov, vice-president
of the Academy of Geopolitical Science, says there is a need "to neutralise
the spread of NATO's influence not only to Central Asia but also to East
and Southeast Asia," adding that this "won't be of an aggressive
or offensive nature; it will be a deterrent."
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- Relations with the SCO are developing, and just a few
months ago, it was reported that the CSTO will have its own Joint Rapid
Reaction Force which could be used to protect its members from military
aggression, defend critical infrastructure and fight terrorism and organised
crime. Russia and Kazakhstan are the key movers in the CSTO and managed
to obtain a 25 per cent growth in this year's budget.
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- There are problems. First, the stand-off between Armenia
and Azerbaijan, with the latter inching towards NATO membership in reaction
to Russian support for the former. And then there's Uzbekistan. President
Islam Karimov was initially very pro-US and anti-Russian, but after being
spurned by the West over the brutal suppression of demonstrations in 2005,
he quickly made up with Russia and even joined the CSTO in 2006.
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- However, human rights have never interfered with US strategic
thinking in the past, and there are signs that Karimov is flirting with
the West once again. He has also signed a military cooperation agreement
with Azerbaijan, and is withdrawing from EurAsEC, adding to the confusion.
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- What Moscow would really like is for Ukraine to join
the CSTO. And why not? If such pacts are truly defensive, then this makes
perfect sense. What conceivable role does NATO play so far from the Atlantic,
except as a forward base for the US ? Ukraine in the CSTO would give it
clout where it counts - with its big and vital neighbour. Ukraine in NATO
can only be a serious cause of tension with Russia. As Egyptians say, "Your
neighbour is closer than your mother."
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- While things look grim these days from Moscow , the EU/NATO
machinations are far from yielding results. Euro "partners" Armenia
and Azerbaijan are in a state of war; Belarus and Moldova leaders have
no illusions about Euro intentions and did not attend the EP fest in Prague,
despite the 600 million euros being thrown around. And signs of reaction
to NATO's nosiness are setting in. In a poll by the US government funded
International Republican Institute (IRI) only 63 per cent of Georgian respondents
back NATO accession, down from the 87 per cent the IRI recorded last September.
Keep in mind the bias of an organisation like the IRI and imagine likely
statistics if such a poll were carried out by a real NGO like, say, the
Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament or StopNATO. What is telling in the IRI
poll is the massive shift away from NATO membership in the past six months.
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- And then there's Ukraine . The district council of its
second largest city, Kharkov , has just called for a ban on all NATO-related
organisations and activities pending a nationwide referendum on Kiev's
membership in the alliance. A statement circulated by the council last
week denounced any violations of Ukraine's bloc-free status. The protest
by the deputies followed the opening in April this year of a Euro-Atlantic
cooperation (read: NATO) centre at Economics and Law University in Kharkov
.
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- Obama has yet to make any of the hard choices he faces.
He caved in to the bankers, and his health plan is being vetted by the
health insurance industry to prevent the single-payer system, by far the
cheapest and most comprehensive. He appears to be letting the Bush torturers
off the hook and continuing their wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But he
can't finesse Russia so easily. Russia will not cooperate on Afghanistan
or arms treaties if he continues the foolish and dangerous meddling in
Eastern Europe under the pretense of supporting "democracy and freedom".
The current games can only be interpreted by Moscow as a replay - hopefully
farcical - of the Nazis in Georgia in WWII, which will strengthen their
resolve to keep the enemy at bay.
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- Eric Walberg writes for Al-Ahram Weekly. You can reach
him at www.geocities.com/walberg2002/
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