The recent satellite collision which took place will impact the space station's future. When the crew was sent into their capsule recently due to a fragment of space junk that signaled the beginning. It's curious that a few months ago long before the satellite collision, that NASA had announced the end of the shuttle program. Slowly de-orbiting space junk from the collision,as well as the other junk already in orbit, put the Russian capsule, the space station and the space shuttle at high risk. Recently the 5" piece of material whizzing past the station at an estimated 20,000 MPH was the first "shot across the bow." The amount of kinetic energy and damage such a small piece could inflict on any vehicle is almost unimaginable. Although it doesn't have weight, it still has mass and with it kinetic energy. Most likely this piece of material at that velocity would most likely go in one side of the space station and right out the other, taking with the atmosphere for that section in a relatively short time. If some was unfortunate enough to be standing there, they would be killed instantly. When it pierces the side of the station, both it and a plug or spray of metal would also be traveling at high velocity.

Fortunately, unlike the former Russian space station for which video showed ventilation ductwork hoses jury-rigged everywhere through open hatches, the current space station does not have such ductwork and crew can quickly close off sections to control damage. There remains however, the serious issue of damage to the environmental, orbital control center and orbit computers. Destruction of these could result in the complete loss of the entire space station when it de-orbits. If it becomes uninhabitable, that would also be allowed to happen.

Most likely, when the first piece of junk eventually does strike the station, no matter what level of damage, NASA will pull the crew and leave it uninhabited until the danger passes. Now this creates yet another problem - who will maintain it if critical systems fail? Already gyroscopes have been replaced more than once, and these are located OUTSIDE the station and require a spacewalk to replace. Apparently, it was *believed* these gyroscopes would last throughout the station's lifetime. They are very critical to maintaining the station's attitude in orbit to prevent overheating. If no one is there to compensate for a loss of the attitude control system, it will de-orbit. At one point, NASA stated that it is essential to have the station manned in order to keep it orbit.

Based on the USAF statements they made after assessing the satellite collision and analyzing the trajectory of thousands of pieces of space junk (at least junk that can be picked up on radar from Earth,) it could take centuries for the low Earth orbital zone to be cleared of the debri. Consider that the satellites which collided were approximately 300 miles higher (a 500 mile orbit) than the space station, we've barely begun to see the problems this junk will cause.

I'm confident that later this year (if not sooner) junk from the collision will force the space station to be abandoned. Travelling by shuttle or Russian space capsule to and from the station will become a hazardous journey. It's difficult to imagine NASA trying to plan even a simple manned mission into orbit:

1. There is the utter unpredictability of the Sun in this solar cycle, behaving in an inexplicable way.

2. Orbiting space junk, which recently has taken a turn for the very worst. We're not talking about aluminum or gold foil here, but structural members from satellites entering into the path of low Earth orbit vehicles.

What's also interesting is that at the end of January 1998 (I think the year is correct) that NASA held a press conference stating "There will be no more manned missions into space." The press howled at the comment, and the NASA representative stepped off the podium without answering any questions. Everyone's head was spinning in disbelief. What's remarkable is that the very next day, NASA held another press conference and retracted the entire statement without any explanation. So here we are, about 10 years later it looks like now this will become a forced issue for no more manned missions. It's curious that the satellites which collided were in a higher orbit, not a lower one. Nor were these satellite further out in geostationary orbit at 22,500 miles. If the collision happened out there communication, weather, television and telephone satellites would be affected.

This will truly be an interesting year for NASA and the space station...