- The "happy talk" campaign in the US media and
coming from the White House is just that: Happy Talk.
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- To get a real picture of what is happening with this
economy, here are a few things to keep in mind.
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- Yes, the rate of decline in economic activity has slowed.
But that is to be expected. When an economy is going at full tilt, as the
US economy was doing in early 2007, a slowdown of any significance yields
huge numbers, in terms of falling production, falling factory utilization,
falling car sales, or, this time around, falling housing prices.
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- But once you get to the same period in 2008, you're already
in a deep recession, and there really isn't that much farther to fall.
If, for example, the carmakers have basically shut down by fall of 2008,
and are just working off huge inventories, then you are not going to see
more factory closings and further reductions in production (how do you
reduce production below zero?).
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- The same can be said about unemployment, although here
there is another twist or two. Yes, the huge layoffs that saw the number
of new unemployed jumping by 6-700,000 per month in the early part of this
year seem to be over, and now new unemployment is rising by "just"
500,000 a month or so, but that's because all the major employers have
already shut down or shut down entire shifts. There are not that many people
who can be laid off any more, at least in large groups. Now entering the
jobless rolls at an accelerating rate...
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- For the rest of this article, please go to:
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- http://www.thiscantbehappening.net
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