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Three Possible Hurricanes
Aim For The Gulf
7-5-10

 

Atlantic       ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010   FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...   1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.    2. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.   3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.   4. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

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