- KINGSTON, NY, 15 February 2011 - The Egyptian people
in Liberation Square celebrated, the world leaders weighed in, and the
global media parroted the tale of "history in the making." The
big bad Hosni Mubarak has "listened to the voices of the Egyptian
people" and has bowed to their demands to finally end his 30-year
- On February 11th, the news came in a brief statement
made by freshly anointed Vice President Omar "Egypt is not ready for
democracy" Suleiman: "In these grave circumstances that
the country is passing through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to
leave his position as president of the republic. He has mandated the Armed
Forces Supreme Council to run the state."
- Following the announcement, Nobel Prize recipient (and
the West's favorite opposition leader) Mohamed ElBaradei said it was the
"greatest day" of his life and that "the country has been
- The "greatest day" was summed up in a USA Today
headline: "Mubarak resigns; military takes over in Egypt."
- Trends Journal subscribers didn't have to wait until
February 11th to know the outcome of this "history in the making."
In our February 1st Trend Alert we forecast:
- As we will see in Egypt, military coups will be disguised
as regime changes. Already the public is being conditioned to view the
Egyptian military as beloved liberators. But in fact they are simply another
arm of the autocratic government, no more familiar with democratic ideals
than the dictator they replace...who had himself been drawn from the ranks
of the military
- History has not been newly made it has only been
repeated. Since the 1952 Egyptian Revolution, when army officers overthrew
King Farouk I, the nation has been run by members of the militaryuntil
Friday, by former Air Force General Hosni Mubarak.
- And now, Omar Suleiman (Egypt's spy chief until Mubarek
appointed him to Vice President on January 29) will also serve on the Armed
Forces Supreme Council that will run the country, according to Al Jazeera.
- Suleiman's ascent to VP had been long in the making.
According to a 2007 WikiLeaked US diplomatic cable titled 'Presidential
Succession in Egypt' "Egyptian intelligence chief and Mubarak
consigliere, in past years Soliman (sic) was often cited as likely to be
named to the long-vacant vice-presidential post. Many of our contacts believe
that Soliman, because of his military background, would at least have to
figure in any succession scenario."
- In addition to Suleiman being accused of viciously stamping
out political opposition and killing, jailing and brutalizing public dissenters
during his 17 years as intelligence chief, he was also the "CIA's
man in Cairo" for, in part, devising and implementing the US rendition
program. Beginning under President Clinton and continuing through the George
W. Bush regime, the US, instead of bringing suspected enemies of the state
(i.e., "terrorists") to trial, would kidnap them and send them
to Egypt, the destination of choice, to be interrogated and tortured.
- Heading the Supreme Council of the newly "liberated"
Egypt is Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who, according
to a WikiLeaked 2008 diplomatic cable, is referred to by mid-level Egyptian
officers as ''Mubarak's poodle'' - incompetent and archaic but intensely
loyal to his President. The cable assesses Tantawi as having "opposed
both economic and political reforms that he perceives as eroding central
- Other Council members include Defense Minister Lt. General
Sami Anan, chief of staff of the Egyptian army, and Air Marshal Ahmed Shafiq,
the new prime minister all stalwart Mubarak supporters.
- Yet, despite those in charge being the antithesis of
democracy, President Obama proclaimed, "Egyptians have made it clear
that nothing less than genuine democracy will carry the day. The people
of Egypt have spoken their voices have been heard and Egypt will
never be the same."
- "It's an Egyptian version of 'Change We Can Believe
In,'" reported our man on the scene of the insurrection, John
Anthony West, Executive Editor of the Trends Journal. "The people
cheer and wave flags, and say exactly the same stupid things except in
Arabic. Even the idiot exultation of the press whores sounds the same!"
commented West, who arrived in Egypt two days before the protests began
on January 25th, and has just returned to the States.
- Mr. West warns, "Expect something even more dramatic,
drastic and long-lasting when the nationwide, inescapable non-change
sinks in a few months from now."
- As with Egypt, in the "Democratic" USA, politicians,
media and the nation-at-large put their trust and better judgment in the
hands of their glorious, benevolent, military men and their magnificent
war machines. Yet, as history has long proven, military rule, (decried
as "juntas" in countries the US does not do business with) is
invariably brutal and only infrequently does legislative power return to
the people. If elections are held they are usually rigged and the only
change is a change of clothes from a tailored General's uniform to
a tailored Armani suit.
- Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
- Trend Forecast: Getting rid of one person does
not make a revolution. As aptly noted by such infamous "revolutionaries"
as Marx, Lenin, and Pol Pot, no revolution can succeed that doesn't replace
all members of the former ruling class.
- In Egypt, the military class still rules and the power
of the 18-member Supreme Council of the Armed Forces goes uncontested.
The Council's first actions have been a suspension of the Constitution,
dissolution of Parliament and imposition of a ban on labor strikes.
- In what appears to be a concession to protestors, the
Council has promised to stay in power only on a temporary basis, and to
hold fair and open elections within six month's timewhich is essentially
the same election timetable proposed by Mr. Mubarak.
- While no one can predict whether the military rulers
will relinquish power and allow free elections, what can be assumed is
that they will not willingly forego the estimated $2 billion in annual
US aid the Egyptian government receives.
- Since Mubarak's exit, Beltway policy wonks and political
front-men have been urging Washington to funnel funds to "pro democracy"
groups in Egypt as part of an effort to influence the shape of the next
government, to insure "stability" and support US foreign policy
- Trends Forecast: The developments in Tunisia, Egypt,
and now spreading to Yemen, Algeria and beyond, are the manifestation of
a trend long in the making one we predicted in our "Off With
Their Heads 2.0" Autumn Trends Journal. Not confined to North African
and Middle Eastern nations, what is now unfolding is a prelude to a series
of civil wars that will lead to regional wars, that will lead to the first
"Great War" of the 21st century. (See "The History
of The Future: Trends 2012: The Great War," Trends Journal, Spring
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