- Is Thomas Malthus relevant today? Are his predictions
of mass human starvation caused by overpopulation true?
-
- In 1798, Malthus said, "The power of population
is so superior to the power of earth to produce subsistence to humanity
that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race."
-
- According to the World Health Organization, 18 million
human beings die of starvation around the planet annually. That delineates
down to 10 million children under 12 and 8 million adults dying of hunger
year in and year out. Last week, humanity reached 7 billion on its way
toward 10 billion by mid century. Those starvation numbers will accelerate
as human numbers grow past the carrying capacity of the land.
-
- The green revolution was instigated as a result of the
efforts of Norman Borlaug, who, while accepting the Nobel peace prize in
1970, said: "The green revolution has won a temporary success in man's
war against hunger and deprivation; it has given man a breathing space.
If fully implemented, the revolution can provide sufficient food for sustenance
during the next three decades. But the frightening power of human reproduction
must also be curbed; otherwise the success of the green revolution will
be ephemeral only."
-
- My Australian friend, Mark O'Connor, author of Overloading
Australia, gives his rendition of what humanity faces. Please Mr. O'Connor,
give readers an understanding of Malthus' brilliant work:
-
- "There has been a view, much put about by rightwing
pro-business think-tanks, that Malthus was a gloomy pessimist from whose
story we should learn not to listen to "pessimists," said O'Connor.
"This view is now looking very shaky as famine stalks more and more
countries. Journalistic articles are beginning to appear that use as their
opening "peg" the remark that Malthus may not have been such
a false prophet as we all assume.
-
- "In fact scholars and reputable encyclopedias never
did so assume -- that claim was wishful thinking by those with their own
reasons for wanting to believe population growth is not a problem.
-
- "Just lately there has been much interest in the
researcher Alison Bashford's study of Malthus. She emphasizes the importance
of 10 chapters that have traditionally been omitted from reprints of his
1803 Essay on the Principle of Population, and claims the missing chapters
show his thinking in a new light. See http://www.abc.net.au/rn/hindsight/stories/2011/3349279.htm
-
- "I'm not getting too excited about this argument,
since the Essay, even in its traditionally abbreviated form, was (for its
day) an impressive piece of work. And scholarly information is of limited
value in dealing with the propagandists of the growth lobby. When they
talk of Malthus, they are not interested in scholarly precision, and not
fond of reading his works closely. They have two simple (and quite invalid)
arguments that they use; and anyone debating with them needs equally brief
refutations to these. I call their two arguments the two-card trick and
the three-card trick."
- The two-card trick is a simple two-stage argument (or
syllogism):
-
- 1. Malthus is the greatest and most famous expert
on the supposed dangers of population growth. He prophesied that population
growth would lead to famines, which did not come true.
-
- 2. Therefore all later warnings, no matter by how
many eminent experts, that famines or other disasters due to population
growth may happen, or will probably happen (or are already happening) will
not come true and should be ignored.
-
- "This is an obviously fallacious argument,"
said O'Connor, "One might as well say, "Eminent seismologists
have warned of tsunamis that did not occur; therefore no one should heed
such warnings".
- The logical fallacy, reduced to a syllogism, is of the
form: "My horse is grey. Therefore all horses are grey."
-
- "Of course the cleverer growth lobbyists realize
that if they present this argument as a syllogism, its logical flaw will
be noted. Their skill is to disguise the logic, and make a great parade
of talking about, say, the fruits of historical experience, what we can
learn from the case of Malthus, etc.
-
- "In replying to the two-card argument, I always
point out the main logical error first. Then I go on to point out a second
logical flaw: If in fact Malthus is simply a man who made a spectacular
mistake, why are you buttering him up, representing him as pre-eminent
in the field, and implying that he is more likely to be right than the
modern experts you seek to discredit? Have demographers and agricultural
experts learnt nothing since his day? And have there been no improvements
in our ability to gather data and to observe global patterns? Would you
argue "The founders of modern medicine used to deny the heart pumped
blood, so why should I believe my cardiologist?"
-
- "We must alert and organize the world's people to
pressure world leaders to take specific steps to solve the two root causes
of our environmental crises - exploding population growth and wasteful
consumption of irreplaceable resources. Over-consumption and overpopulation
underlie every environmental problem we face today." -- Jacques-Yves
Cousteau, Oceanographer
-
- "Also, did Malthus in fact prophesy, or merely
warn?" said O'Connor. (In which case the first card is as false as
the second). "And then, how specific were his predictions of human
numbers exceeding food supply, and how often has what he warned about in
fact occurred? Would yourefuse to believe eye-witness accounts of famines
on the grounds that someone once predicted a famine or famines that didn't
occur?
-
- "By the time I've run though these points, and then
suggested the opposition should apologize for using this misleading argument,
they tend to look "tolerably foolish". But note that it is important
to start with the two good-as-gold logical points: that one prophet being
wrong doesn't mean all prophets are wrong, and that if Malthus was simply
the false prophet they claim, he would not deserve the pre-eminence they
have pretended to give him.
-
- "But if you start instead with the last point, and
defend Malthus by saying that he wasn't necessarily prophesying and wasn't
necessarily wrong, it will sound like you are defending a weak point in
your own position. They will then contest your defense of Malthus, and
you will find yourself in the glue-pot, since the more you defend Malthus
the more you will seem to be conceding their basic (and illogical) contention,
that unless Malthus can be exonerated, no subsequent prophesy or even observation
of famine should be believed. Target that absurdity first, and then mop
up the minor dishonesties at leisure.
-
- "Incidentally, the main reason Malthus's expectation
of continuing famines in the UK (as future population outstripped future
food supply) did not come true, is that during and after the Napoleonic
wars Britain and France emerged as pre-eminent colonial powers, and proceeded
to bleed each other white of young men. They did this via a long series
of land battles and sea battles, not to mention the practices of sending
troops and bureaucrats to tropical colonies where they died like flies.
-
- "Since in those days single women tended not to
have babies, population growth was much reduced. As well, relations with
the United States improved, so that even though the US was lost as a colony,
it obligingly took off a substantial proportion of the UK's population
(including the Irish who were starving after the potato famine) as emigrants.
Further Britain happened to emerge as the dominant colonial power, and
with complete control of the seas, and so could afford to import food from
other countries -- which to this day is the only thing that keeps its bloated
population from starving.
-
- "It was not improvements in C19th agriculture that
kept up with population growth and prevented the Malthusian famines occurring;
it was the combination of death in war, death from colonial diseases, and
massive emigration to North America. This unlikely combination of factors
was not inevitable, and could not in Malthus's day have been given a high
probability of coming true. But don't waste your breath explaining all
this to those who don't want to know."
-
- The three-card trick is a more elaborate version of the
two-card. It goes like this:
-
- 1. Thomas Malthus was the first or at least the greatest
thinker to argue that population growth tends to outgrow food and resources.
(Largely true).
-
- 2. Malthus was a pessimistic false prophet who prophesied
a famine the British never experienced. (Grossly unfair, as any good encyclopedia
article on Malthus will show. If that was all he was, he would not be the
most famous thinker on the subject, and the three-card trick would collapse
at this point. In fact Malthus did not claim to know the future, and he
did not so much predict a future famine as provide an intelligent account
of existing famines -- and of reasons they were likely to recur.)
-
- 3. Therefore those warning of famine today are minor
Malthuses, and even less worthy of respect. (Note that even if the second
card was valid, the conclusion would still be clearly invalid.)
-
- "In the debate-book on population that I am currently
(late 2011) writing for Pantera Press, called Big Australia Yes/No?, my
opponents are two "fellows" from the rightwing Centre for Independent
Studies. Their beguilingly gentle version of the three-card trick begins:
Thomas Malthus, an early 19th century English philosopher, famously said
that unchecked population growth would lead to worldwide famine and disaster.
Two hundred years later, entrepreneur Dick Smith is running a similar line."
-
- "In a brief right of reply, my comment, which may
or may not survive the editing and compression process, is that they may
have been innocently misled into repeating this nonsense, but they should
now distance themselves from it, and apologize. World hunger is not an
issue to dismiss with such glibness."
- "The raging monster upon the land is population
growth. In its presence, sustainability is but a fragile theoretical construct.
To say, as many do, that the difficulties of nations are not due to people,
but to poor ideology and land-use management is sophistic."
- Harvard scholar and biologist E.O. Wilson
-
- Mark O'Connor
-
- mark@Australianpoet.com
- www.australianpoet.com
-
- .....
- Frosty Wooldridge has bicycled across six continents
- from the Arctic to the South Pole - as well as six times across the USA,
coast to coast and border to border. In 2005, he bicycled from the Arctic
Circle, Norway to Athens, Greece. He presents "The Coming Population
Crisis in America: and what you can do about it" to civic clubs, church
groups, high schools and colleges. He works to bring about sensible world
population balance at www.frostywooldridge.com He is the author of: America
on the Brink: The Next Added 100 Million Americans. Copies available: 1
888 280 7715
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