- LONDON (Reuters) - Choose
one: (A) Take a flight somewhere on New Year's Eve, an experience that
might seem unattractive even without the worry of a Y2K computer fault.
-
- (A) Take a plane trip (B) Go to a party.
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- Not many people are choosing (A).
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- ``I don't know of any airline that is keeping a full
schedule that night,'' said J P Morgan aviation analyst Chris Avery, who
estimated airlines planned to operate only 25 to 35 percent of their usual
schedules because of weak bookings.
-
- There are reasons to be concerned about flying over the
new year, analysts say, but not because computers in the plane or air traffic
control systems might go haywire as the last two digits of the date click
from 99 to 00.
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- The real risk, they say, is delay: sitting in a terminal,
waiting to board a plane that is grounded because of a fault on the ground,
perhaps in the baggage system. "Apart from the fact that I intend
to go to a party, I wouldn't be in the air at that time because I would
be afraid of the check-in delays,'' said David Learmount, safety editor
for industry weekly Flight International. "If something goes wrong
it will be on the ground.''
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- AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS SAID IMMUNE
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- The computers aboard airliners do not care what day it
is, say experts, ridiculing the idea of planes dropping from the sky as
the clock strikes midnight.
-
- Most Boeings do not even have a computer in the loop
between the pilot and the control surfaces on the wing and tail. And while
most Airbuses do, Learmount said the software took no notice of the time,
let alone the date.
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- To prove the point, a Lufthansa Airbus A319 loaded with
journalists flew last month with its clocks set to register the New Year
during the flight. "There was absolutely no problem,'' said a Lufthansa
spokesman. Other airlines have tried the same tactic with Boeings, and
also found no unusual behavior. And even if there were problems, pilots
can fly airliners without the computers, using back-up systems.
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- OLD-STYLE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL AVAILABLE
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- Airlines have taken a close interest in national authorities'
efforts to protect air traffic control systems from Y2K failures but seem
satisfied that their routes are safe. "There are no no-fly areas,''
said a spokeswoman for British Airways Plc (NYSE:BAB - news), which bases
its view on a report from the International Air Transport Association,
the airlines' club. "f we had any doubts, we would cancel our flights,
but there are no reasons to do so.''
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- Besides, analysts say an air traffic control organization
could easily fall back on manual systems if, for example, its radar failed
at midnight. "There will be so few aeroplanes up there that handling
air traffic control by the old methods will be very, very easy,'' said
Learmount.
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- The old-fashion system, called procedural control, involves
little more than air crews reporting their positions, courses and speeds
-- known from onboard systems -- and controllers comparing that information
to ensure that no one is on a collision course.
-
- Even a complete loss of electrical power would cause
surprisingly little trouble, said Learmount, who said it had happened three
times in the past five years in Southeastern England, some of the busiest
airspace in the world.
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- How did the system cope? Battery power kept the radios
working while the controllers progressively emptied the sky, canceling
takeoffs and sending inbound planes elsewhere.
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- MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE TERMINAL
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- None of that means flying in the first few days of next
year will be reliable and convenient, because getting aircraft into the
air relies on so many computers on the ground, including those of suppliers.
"The customer has to be aware there will be some lack of comfort,''
said the Lufthansa spokesman. "Maybe heating will not be working,
or airport doors not opening, or there might be a fault with the luggage
system.''
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- A problem need not even occur at the airport to keep
passengers grounded. "Say the caterer's PC system, miles from the
airport, fails,'' supposed J P Morgan's Avery. In that case, the airline
could have an absolutely safe aircraft that would be going absolutely nowhere
because the truck had not arrived with the shrimp risotto.
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- Avery expected business travelers, in particular, to
shun air travel until perhaps the middle of January. "The average
business traveler simply does not want to plan a trip knowing there is
a high probability of a three or four hour delay,'' he said.
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