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- PETERSON AIR FORCE
BASE, Colo. (Reuters) - Deadly nuclear foes from another era plan
to ring in the new year together to make sure the world survives the 2000
technology bogy known as Y2K.
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- Russian and U.S. military personnel will sit side by
side inside U.S. Space Command's Building 1840 to mount a pioneering missile
watch aimed at heading off the worst Y2K danger of all, an accidental atomic
Armageddon.
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- The project -- the Center for Year 2000 Strategic Stability
-- was devised by the Pentagon, which fears Y2K glitches may blind Moscow's
missile-launch detection system or cause false alarms -- and possibly spark
a nuclear nightmare.
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- Add in a diplomatic crisis and ``the potential for Russia
to misinterpret early warning data'' would be extra worrisome, Lawrence
Gershwin, the top CIA officer for science and technology, told the U.S.
Congress last week.
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- With 2,000 nuclear-tipped Russian missiles still on launch-within-minutes
alert -- along with 2,440 U.S. missiles -- U.S.Defense Secretary William
Cohen has described the Y2K center as a kind of hand-holding exercise to
prevent any surprises.
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- It will cut the chance ``that a turn-of-the-millennium
computer error will create an end-of-the-year security incident,'' Cohen
said on Sept. 14, the day he and his Russian counterpart, Igor Sergeyev,
signed an agreement in Moscow setting up the center.
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- The arrangement will let the Cold War enemies do something
unimaginable just a decade ago -- sit together and double check U.S.-provided
sensitive early-warning data about possible ballistic missile launches.
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- The operation is a prototype for a permanent U.S.-Russian
early-warning center that Presidents Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin agreed
last year to set up in Moscow.
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- Along with the perceived Y2K vulnerabilities of Russia's
strategic warning system, the command control of its military is at risk
during the calendar rollover, Gershwin told the special Senate Y2K committee
on Oct. 13.
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- Unlike cash-strapped Russia, the Pentagon is spending
$3.8 billion to ready its most important systems for Jan. 1, 2000, when
unprepared computers could misread the last two zeros of the date as 1900
and crash or sputter.
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- Sharing Modular Desks
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- In the windowless Y2K center -- a converted cubicle space
-- Americans and Russians will share modular work stations starting on
Dec. 27 after a week-long warmup.
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- Working in shifts, the 20 or so Russians and their U.S.
team-mates will keep a round-the-clock vigil until a date to be determined
in mid-January, according to Air Force Lt. Col. Jon Wicklund of the Space
Command, the center's operator.
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- Launch data will be displayed as it is picked up by nearby
Cheyenne Mountain, the fabled, steel-sheathed operations center of the
North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) on the outskirts of Colorado
Springs.
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- NORAD, a joint U.S-Canadian command, uses a global mesh
of satellites, radars and sensors to detect missile and space shots. U.S.
Defense Support Program satellites can pick up the heat of a SCUD missile
launch from 22,300 miles (35,887 km) in space.
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- NORAD has left no stone unturned to ensure its own Y2K
readiness and has contingency plans ``to cover a failure if it occurred,''
said Major Gen. David Bartram of Canada, chief of operations.
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- From NORAD, the Russians will get a stripped-down data
stream on any launch to veil U.S. intelligence sources and methods.
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- ``We're not interested in showing them all the capabilities
that we've got,'' said Col. Robert Ryals, the vice commander of the Air
Force's Space Warfare Center, who may be the top-ranking member of the
U.S. team staffing the center.
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- Details of the center's operations were worked out last
month during a Russian team's stay at Peterson Air Force Base, Space Command
headquarters. An American delegation will visit Moscow this week to fine-tune
arrangements.
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- By agreement, seven chunks of data will be shared on
any launch over 310 miles (500 km): point of origin, time, number of missiles
detected, trajectories, types launched, projected target area and projected
impact time.
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- Tested Hot Lines Ready
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- Anything at odds with what Moscow detects could be discussed
on a Y2K-tested ``hot line.'' Another such line goes to Cheyenne Mountain's
command center, where NORAD can quickly bump a problem up its abbreviated
chain of command to Washington.
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- The Y2K Center also will provide a link for any other
defense-related problems that emerge during the Y2K cross-over, such as
aircraft that may go off course, U.S. nuclear planners said.
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- Sitting with the Russians will ``provide additional safeguards
appropriate to this period of heightened uncertainty,'' Edward Warner,
assistant secretary of defense for strategy and threat reduction, told
Congress last month.
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- Two interpreters will be on hand at all times. Three
oversized wall screens can zero in on the area of any alerts. One is to
stay tuned to television news. Another may be used to show videos to break
boredom.
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- The 1983 film WarGames -- in which Matthew Broderick
played a computer hacker who finds an electronic backdoor to NORAD and
nearly trips the Third World War -- would be a ``good choice'' for entertainment,
said Richard Russell, the center's chief engineer. He has put in a video
system capable of showing the PAL video format used in Russia.
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- Y2K Launch Unlikely
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- U.S. officials say they are highly confident that Y2K
failures will not lead to the inadvertent or unauthorized launch of a ballistic
missile by any country. But widespread system failures could spur ``opportunistic
engagements'' by hostile forces, the Pentagon's joint staff warned U.S.
commanders in a Sept. 14 memo.
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- So far, no missile or space launches are known to be
scheduled during the Y2K rollover, according to Air Force Lt. Col. Randy
Blaisdell, program manager for the center.
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- Worldwide, a ballistic missile test launch or space shot
is detected an average of about once every 36 hours, with ``very very few''
of them surprises, said NORAD operations chief Bartram.
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