- WAKE UP!!! Y2K threatens your job, your
livelihood, your well being, your security, your business and your life.
-
- Dr. Ed Yardini's April 7 speech to the
members of the Bank for International Settlements may be the most profound
statement made to date regarding the importance of the year 2000 computer
problems. The Bank for International Settlements is quite possibly the
most important financial institution in the world, being the organization
which supervises and manages financial settlements like check clearance
and other instruments of international banking. This is one of the key
organizations which run the financial world.
-
- Before the first of this year, Dr. Yardini,
who is chief economist of the bank Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, was publicly
predicting a 40 percent chance of recession due to computer difficulties
with year 2000 date calculations (Y2K). Mid March Yardini raised his estimate
to a 60 percent chance of a recession. Now, in a speech delivered to the
Bank for International Settlements on April 7, 1998, in Switzerland, Ed
Yardini, stated he will place the odds closer to 100 percent if the world
economic leaders do not announce Y2K as their top priority at the next
G8 summit.
-
- Just the financial loss of value due
to the impact of Y2K in the United States alone is now estimated by Ed
Yardini to be a one trillion dollar drop in gross domestic product and
another one trillion dollar loss in stock market capitalization.
-
- It is now being openly discussed how
federal and state government agencies as well as corporations are beginning
to plan for triage, not fixing those computer functions that are not essential
for the survival of the organization. One of the problems with triage is
there is no fixed definition of what is an essential or mission-critical
function. So arbitrary decisions are being made and who is to say who's
job or essential product will be continued in the year 2000? Yardini says,
"We all need to know if the products, services, information, orders,
jobs, incomes, and payments we depend on have been doomed by the triage
decisions of those who provide them. If so, we might already be toast in
2000 and not know it."
-
- Not only could anyone be toast financially
in 2000, there is also a possibility of being physically toasted. Yardini
told the members of the Bank for International Settlements that his comments
were directed toward "preparing for the inevitable disruptions when
the problem is not completely fixed in time. He then went on to identify
a number of major priority concerns with the two items at the top of his
list being nuclear weapons and nuclear power plants.
-
- More and more prominent people are beginning
to realize the magnitude of the Y2K problem. Computers have become essential
in every phase of our existence and our very lives depend on their functioning
perfectly. They are everywhere and virtually all of them are suspect for
this problem.
-
- Your domestic computers and personal
PC's are the least important part of the overall picture. You have invested
money in equipment and devices that may not be reliable. However, if they
cease to function correctly, their failure will not impact to a great extent
beyond your own life. But look elsewhere and you will see enormous complexity
and specialization in modern society, all managed and made possible by
the use of computers and electronics. And those computers, main frames,
dedicated circuitry controller chips, PC's, all of them, are seriously
at risk for Y2K problems. And when those problems hit at maximum intensity,
they will take out virtually all the defective systems on the same day
everywhere in the world. It's then too late for anyone to help anyone else.
-
- Think about your food. The grocery store
check out computer is also likely part of an inventory and ordering system
that keeps food on the shelves. Perhaps the average super market has a
three day turnover on most of its inventory. Somewhere close by there is
a central warehouse that manages the food inventory needs of an entire
district, region or community. All together, there is probably less than
a week's supply of food available for the local shelves.
-
- Further back in the chain there will
be major regional distribution centers that order and receive and organize
the shipping of food from manufacturers and growers which is then trucked
to the central community warehouses. There are computers and bar code readers
all throughout these various facilities and they all have to be intensely
scruitinized for Y2K software problems. Remember, all the defective systems,
and that's most of them, will collapse at the same time.
-
- Keeping the trucks on the freeway requires
further chains of computer driven systems. Dispatching, Loading, delivery
and receiving requires more computer interaction. On the road, truck stops
have to be connected to national data bases and pipelines or other fuel
delivery systems, all of which are heavily computerized.
-
- And without computers and electronic
bar code readers, no one even knows what's in the boxes, how it got there
or what its for until it shows up on the grocery store shelves. We can't
do it anymore without computers. And the computers are broken.
-
- Y2K means electricity is at risk, and
not just for a few hours. Electricity could be out or unpredictable for
weeks or months. If you use gas forced air heat, your furnace fans and
thermostat use electricity. If you live in town, your water is pumped and
treated using electricity and your sewage system also relies on electric
pumps or it will back up.
-
- Think about your bank account. When the
computers go down, and you should plan on that, your bank will not know
your account balances and you will be unable to get your money out, your
checks will not clear and your creditors and mortage holders still expect
payment.
-
- Even if the bank keeps its doors open,
there is no reason to believe the US Post Office is any more Y2K efficient
than other organizations so don't plan on your checks being delivered in
the mail. Mail can't be sorted by hand anymore. There aren't enough bodies
to do it and the manual sorting systems were scrapped long ago.
-
- If the mail could get out the door, the
planes won't be flying. The Federal Aviation Administration has announced,
and IBM confirmed, that it can not fix the Y2K problems in 46 outdated
regional IBM computers that manage the nation's long distance Air Traffic
Controll. So not only will the mail not be delivered due to Y2K weather,
but the entire commercial aviation and air transport division of the nation's
economy will shut down. That will definitely disrupt UPS, Federal Express,
Airborne and all the rest of the air freight companies.
-
- Don't expect the government to solve
any of this. Their computer problems are as bad or worse than everyone
else's. The Treasury Department has already admitted that its check writing
programs are not going to be fixed in time, even if they get the 500 million
dollars they are begging from Congress just to keep working on Y2K problems.
All other government programs are in the same condition. The IRS is very
far behind and will not succeed in meeting its Y2K deadlines. The results
of the IRS collapsing seem like deserved medicing but without dependable
revenue streams the federal government and its benefits, support programs,
construction projects, guarantees, deposit insurance, social security,
medical assistance, unemployment benefits welfare, bureaucrat pay checks,
payment for goods and services, all will cease.
-
- Look for the failure of your telephone
service due to Y2K problems. No telecommunications company has yet announced
that it is prepared to do business as usual in the Year 2000.
-
- Those who have studied the problem are
deeply frightened by the increasing potential for the collapse of our economy
and culture. The failure to face the problem has now pushed Y2K computer
weaknesses into a twilight zone where no one knows how the foolishly delayed
Y2K work can be finished in time. Every day that passes brings us closer
to the unmovable deadline and resultant culture-wide chaos.
-
- Allen Comstock
-
- -----------------Begin Speech---------------------------
-
- Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
-
- Portfolio Strategy Service Dr. Edward
Yardeni, Chief Economist April 7, 1998 Phone: (212) 469-5715 #17 Fax: (212)
469-5725 E-Mail: yardeni@ix.netcom.com Web Site: http://www.yardeni.com/
-
- THE Y2K REPORTER
-
- Prepared text for keynote dinner speech
-
- Year 2000 Roundtable Bank for International
Settlements Basle, Switzerland April 7, 1998
-
- TIME TO DECLARE WAR ON Y2K
-
- But it would be foolhardy not to prepare
for the possibility of failures. Every organization must put in place contingency
plans in case failures occur in its own systems or in other people's. -Prime
Minister Tony Blair
-
- The following views, opinions, and recommendations
are entirely my own and may or may not reflect those of my company and
its management.
-
-
- I would like to thank the Bank for International
Settlements for the opportunity to discuss the Year 2000 Problem with so
many distinguished representatives of the global banking and financial
community tonight.
-
- On March 4 this year, I was interviewed
by Peter Jennings on ABC World News Tonight about the Year 2000 Problem
(Y2K). Preceding my sound bite, the nationally televised segment on this
important issue raised the possibility of major failures in key US government
services, including tax collection, welfare payments, national defense,
and air traffic control. Yet, in my 15 seconds of fame, Mr. Jennings asked
me if I wasn't a bit of an alarmist with my forecast of a 40% chance of
a global recession caused by Y2K: "Surely there's an element of crying
wolf." (1)
-
- The gist of my response was, and still
is that I am an alarmist! In fact, I am becoming more alarmed: On March
16, I raised the recession odds to 60%. (2) I am especially alarmed that
so few other economists and policy makers are alarmed about Y2K. My goal
tonight at this banking roundtable is to alarm all of you as much as possible.
If you are already concerned, as I suspect most of you are by now, I hope
to inspire you to maximize your efforts to prepare for the coming difficulties.
-
- Let's stop pretending that Y2K isn't
a major threat to our way of life. There is too much at stake for such
uninformed wishful thinking. Perhaps, the time has come to act as though
we are preparing for a war. This may seem extreme and unnecessary. However,
if we prepare for plausible worst-case Y2K scenarios, then perhaps we can
avoid at least some of them.
-
- I do have a Y2K strategic plan to share
with you tonight. It is not targeted at fixing the computer problem, but
rather on preparing for the inevitable disruptions when the problem is
not completely fixed in time. As representatives of the world's banking
and financial community, you are in a position to prepare the public for
the coming upheaval. You are already doing so in the banking and finance
industry. I urge you to use your experience, influence, and power more
broadly to influence top policy makers to take bolder measures.
-
- Here is my seven-point plan for your
consideration during this very important gathering:
-
- 1) Year 2000 Alliance. We should draft
and sign a resolution insisting that the leaders of the Group of Eight
(G8), at their May 15-17 meeting in Birmingham, form a Y2K Global Alliance
to coordinate both national and multinational campaigns. The Alliance should
be broadened to include all 29 members of the OECD and selected representatives
of the United Nations. (3)
-
- 2) Commander In Chief. The Y2K Alliance
could use the expertise of military personnel who should be involved because
they have the necessary training and experience for marshaling and mobilizing
resources for such a potentially huge global campaign. The G8 should appoint
a Y2K Commander in Chief, for example, General Colin Powell.
-
- 3) Military Fail-Safe System. Military
leaders of the United States, other NATO members, and Russia must jointly
assess the risk of an accidental nuclear missile launch or a provocative
false alarm. (4 )They must rapidly develop a fail-safe joint communication
and intelligence network to eliminate any such risk. (5) Measures must
be taken to thwart terrorists, hackers, and other malevolent opportunists
from taking advantage of any Y2K chaos. (6)
-
- 4) Securing Infrastructure. Y2K "Sector
Alliances" should be responsible for the Y2K campaigns in specific
global sectors. The top priority must be to secure the supply of electricity
worldwide. (7) Other utilities, including water, gas, sanitation, and
telecommunications, must also be secured. Contingency plans for rationing
utility usage should be prepared. Other key sectors that may require a
global "top-down" approach include government revenue collection
and debt servicing, welfare payments, farming, manufacturing, mining, transportation,
distribution, retailing, banking, and finance. Y2K "Industry Alliances"
should have the power to organize and execute a cooperative and collective
battle plan among the world's key industries, including, for example, food,
drugs, chemicals, energy, security brokerage and exchanges.
-
- 5) Change Freeze. Governments should
freeze all legislative, regulatory, and information technology (IT) changes
that might divert resources from the effort to prepare government and business
computer systems for the century date change. The Industry Alliances should
adopt a similar "change freeze." (8)
-
- 6) Mandatory Y2K Holiday The Y2K Alliance
should consider requiring all nonessential employees to stay home during
the first week of January 2000. Financial markets might have to be closed
during this period. (9) This global Y2K holiday would give IT personnel
the opportunity to stress test their systems with a slow "reboot,"
rather than under peak load conditions. They could first test the integrity
of basic utility services, especially electricity and telecommunications
services. Then they could bring their own systems on-line in a phased sequence
that can pinpoint weak links and either repair them quickly or take them
immediately "off-line."
-
- 7) Emergency Budget. The Year 2000 Alliance
Accord should require all participants to fund a Y2K Emergency Budget with
an initial minimum balance of $100 billion. They should be prepared to
provide much more, if necessary. The budget should be spent on both last-ditch
efforts to repair or replace key computer systems around the world and
to implement contingency plans once the weakest links have been identified.
Conceivably, the funds may be needed to purchase strategic stockpiles of
fuel, food, and medical supplies.
-
-
- I expect there will be significant IT
disruptions and failures in 2000. Some problems could start next year.
(10) I am convinced that a severe recession is the most likely outlook
for the global economy in 2000. The recession could be at least as bad
as the one during 1973-74, which was caused mostly by a disruption in the
supply of oil. Information is just as vital as oil for running our economies.
If information is harder to obtain, the amount of commercial and financial
transactions, i.e., GDP, we can support will necessarily be reduced. How
much might GDP fall? In the United States, it dropped 3.7% from peak to
trough during 1973-74. Unfortunately, this might actually be an overly
optimistic outlook if it turns out that our impaired IT systems can only
support a much lower level of economic activity. Furthermore, a Year 2000
recession is bound to be deflationary. In the United States, a $1 trillion
drop in nominal GDP and a $1 trillion loss in stock market capitalization
are possible.
-
- The IT revolution of the past four decades
has contributed greatly to our global prosperity. I recognize that there
are some who question whether computers have really contributed to productivity.
I have no such doubts. Without computers, none of our most dynamic companies
would exist today. Microsoft, SAP, Dell, and Toshiba would not exist, nor
would the jobs they've created. FedEx, Wal-Mart, and Deutsche Bank would
exist today without computers, but they would all be much smaller. And,
of course, governments could not play such large roles in our economies
without IT systems.
-
- Our global and domestic markets for financial
securities, commodities, products, and services depend completely on the
smooth functioning of the vast IT infrastructure. Information is the life
blood of our domestic and global markets. If the information flow is severely
disrupted by Y2K, then markets will allocate and utilize resources inefficiently.
Market participants will be forced to spend more time and money obtaining
the information that was instantly available at almost no cost before the
market was disrupted.
-
- The division of labor could be radically
upset by Y2K. This process is the very foundation of economic prosperity
and progress based on the exchange of goods and services produced as a
result of our comparative advantage. We all either thrive, or have the
potential to do so, by producing the goods and services that we are especially
endowed, qualified, or trained to produce. We exchange the fruits of our
labor for the goods and services that are better made by others.
-
- IT systems have expanded the size of
the markets and the opportunities for an even greater division of labor.
Just-in-time manufacturing, outsourcing, and globalization are the most
obvious modern extensions of the division of labor. Now imagine a world
in which those IT systems either are impaired or completely fail. Suddenly,
we may all be forced to do without goods and services that can no longer
be produced for us by others. We can attempt to make them ourselves, but
in most cases this will be impossible. If it is possible, the cost and
time of doing so will be enormous. (11) There are no low-tech alternatives
if our high-tech information systems fail in 2000. We simply cannot manually
collect, sort, store, process, and analyze all the data we must have to
support, let alone grow, our global economy. (12)
-
- Why am I so sure that we will fail to
have all our IT systems ready and that the disruptions will be severe enough
to cause a major global recession, perhaps even a depression? Fixing and
responding to the Y2K Problem requires a cooperative and collective approach
which is rarely an outcome of the division of labor. The current Y2K global
battle plan is virtually guaranteed to fail. It has at least seven major
flaws:
-
- 1. Unorganized. For starters, there is
no plan. If there is one, it certainly isn't global at all, or even national.
It is highly decentralized. Each company and government agency is responsible
for fixing Y2K on its own. There are few industry alliances working to
solve the problem collectively.
-
- 2. Unaware. Even worse, there is no global
campaign to maximize awareness of Y2K, and very few national efforts to
alert the public. (13)
-
- 3. Uncontrolled. Each Y2K-fixing entity
independently establishes a triage process to identify mission-critical
versus noncritical systems. No authority, regulator, or industry association
has defined the meaning of-or established standards for-the widely misused
term "mission critical."
-
- 4. Unverified. Available resources are
focused on fixing mission-critical systems, however defined. Y2K managers
are free to reclassify mission-critical systems as noncritical. (14) They
might do this under the increasing pressure of the looming deadline to
show more progress than is in fact possible to achieve. There is simply
too little independent verification of progress. (15)
-
- 5. Unprotected. Computer systems exchange
data all the time. Information systems and databases may easily be contaminated
by data received from noncompliant or noncompatible Y2K systems.
-
- 6. Untested. Even fixed systems could
fail once they are stress tested in "real time." Most embedded
chip systems probably won't be tested, let alone be fixed in time for the
century date change.
-
- 7. Unaccountable. Noncritical systems
are either compliant or they are not. If not, Y2K managers must decide
whether to fix them or to let them fail in 2000. Without a cooperative
or collective approach, it is likely that some entities will doom noncritical
systems that are actually mission critical to some of their external, and
even internal dependents.
-
-
- This last point is crucially important:
It is the ground-zero of the potential Y2K explosion. We all need to know
if the products, services, information, orders jobs, incomes, and payments
we depend on have been doomed by the triage decisions of those who provide
them. If so, we might already be toast in 2000 and not know it in 1998
or even in 1999. My friends and colleagues, we must challenge the leaders
of the Group of Eight nations to assure us at their next meeting that in
the year 2000:
-
- * There will be no nuclear weapon mishaps.
* All nuclear power plants will operate safely. So will other hazardous
sites. * There will be no widespread blackouts or brownouts. * Health care
services will be available to all who need it. * Welfare and social security
payments will be made on a timely basis. * Air traffic control systems
will be functioning properly and at full capacity. * The payments system
and all financial markets will operate smoothly.
-
- If they can not make those assurances,
then they must immediately declare war on Y2K! There is still time to act
decisively and to minimize the disruptions. We have too much to lose if
they fail to do so. We will lose much less if they attack the problem now.
Indeed, I probably will raise the odds of a global recession closer to
100% if our leaders do not declare that Y2K is their top priority at the
next G8 summit. What can we do on an individual basis? We must all be at
least a small part of the solution, or else we will all surely be a big
part of the problem.
-
-
- Annex: Preface of US Guide to Business
Continuity and Contingency Planning
-
- Time is running out for solving the Year
2000 problem. Many federal agencies will not be able to renovate and fully
test all of their mission-critical systems and may face major disruptions
in their operations. At the same time, systems that have been renovated
and tested may encounter unanticipated Year 2000 problems. Despite the
efforts of each business, state and local government, and federal agency
to race against time and to renovate, validate, and implement their mission-critical
information systems every organization remains vulnerable to the disruption
of its business processes. Because most federal organizations are highly
dependent on information technology to carry out their business, Year 2000-induced
failures of one or more mission critical systems may have a severe impact
on their ability to deliver critical services. For example:
-
- * The nation's air transportation
may face major delays and disruptions because the airlines may not be able
to file flight plans with the Federal Aviation Administration. *
Taxpayers may not receive timely tax refunds because the Internal
Revenue Service may be unable to process their tax returns. * Payments
to veterans and retirees may be delayed or disrupted by the failure of
mission-critical systems supporting the nation's benefit payment systems.
* College students may not receive student education loans promptly.
-
- The risk of failure is not limited to
the organization's internal information systems. Many federal agencies
also depend on information and data provided by their business partners-including
other federal agencies, hundreds of state and local agencies, international
organizations, and private sector entities. Finally, every organization
also depends on services provided by the public infrastructure-including
power, water, transportation, and voice and data telecommunications. Because
of these risks, agencies must start business continuity and contingency
planning now to reduce the risk of Year 2000 business failures. Specifically,
every federal agency must ensure the continuity of its core business processes
by identifying, assessing, managing, and mitigating its Year 2000 risks.
This effort should not be limited to the risks posed by the Year 2000-induced
failures of internal information systems, but must include the potential
Year 2000 failures of others, including business partners and infrastructure
service providers. One weak link in the chain of critical dependencies
and even the most successful Year 2000 program will fail to protect against
major disruption of business operations.
-
- The business continuity planning process
focuses on reducing the risk of Year 2000-induced business failures. It
safeguards an agency's ability to produce a minimum acceptable level of
outputs and services in the event of failures of internal or external mission-critical
information systems and services. It also links risk management and mitigation
efforts to the agency's Year 2000 program, and helps to identify alternate
resources and processes needed to operate the agency core business processes.
While it does not offer a long-term solution to Year 2000- induced failures,
it will help the agency to prepare for a potential crisis, and may facilitate
the restoration of normal service at the earliest possible time in the
most cost-effective manner.
-
- Source: US General Accounting Office,
"Year 2000 Computing Crisis: Business Continuity and Contingency Planning
(Exposure Draft), March 1998. [http://www.gao.gov/special.pubs/bcpguide.pdf]
-
- Copyright (C) Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
Inc. 1998.
-
-
- ---------------- Notes:
-
- (1) [http://www.abcnews.com/onair/wnt/html_files/transcripts/
wnt0304.html]
-
- (2) See Edward Yardeni, Year 2000 Recession?
[http://www.yardeni.com/y2kbook.html]
-
- (3) Prime Minister Tony Blair intends
to put Y2K on the agenda of the G8 meeting. UN Ambassador Ahmad Kamal of
Pakistan is preparing a Y2K-awareness resolution for the UN General Assembly.
-
- (4) In 1980, a computer-chip failure
at Norad-the US command post in Colorado for assessing nuclear attacks-generated
a false alarm of an all-out Soviet missile attack. As recently as 1995,
an American research rocket sent up off the coast of Norway to study the
aurora borealis so alarmed the Russians that for the first time in their
history, they activated the nuclear suitcase that accompanies the president.
See Brian Hall, "Overkill Is Not Dead," The New York Times,"
March 15, 1998. The article suggests that despite the end of the Cold War,
the United States and Russia still have missiles aimed at each other, and
can instantly retarget those that don't have a forwarding address currently.
-
- (5) The latest US government Y2K progress
report notes that the US Department of Defense has a "tight schedule
for meeting massive Y2K challenge." [http://www.cio.fed.gov/y2k4q.htm]
-
- (6) In the United States, the President's
Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection (PCCIP) was created on
July 5, 1996 by Executive Order 13010 [http://www.pccip.gov/]. The stated
reason for the order was the need to assure the uninterrupted operation
of critical infrastructure. The commission was tasked with addressing vulnerabilities
of eight different critical infrastructures: telecommunications, electric
power systems, water supply systems, transportation, banking and finance,
gas-oil storage and distribution, emergency services, and continuity of
government. The PCCIP delivered its first report to the President on Wednesday,
October 22, 1997 [http://www.pccip.gov/report_index.html]. It states that
"solving the Year 2000 problem was not part of the commission's mission."
The first sentence of Executive Order 13010 states, "Certain national
infrastructure are so vital that their incapacity or destruction would
have a debilitating impact on the defense or economic security of the United
States." [http://www.pccip.gov/eo13010.html]. Surely, Y2K represents
such a clear and present danger. There is nothing in the order that limits
the commission's authority to study and make recommendations about Y2K.
-
- (7) Recent examples of the turmoil created
by a major power failure are the ice storm in Quebec and Montreal this
past winter, and the current misery in Auckland, New Zealand.
-
- (8) The Governor of the Bank of England,
Eddie George, calls January 1, 2000 "a day of judgment" and believes
that the British government should freeze legislative and regulatory changes
that would burden the computers of financial institutions already struggling
with Y2K and the euro. In Canada, Prime Minister Jean Chretien is sending
letters to all ministers and deputy ministers warning them that Year 2000
is the No. 1 priority and all other business is secondary.
-
- (9) In addition to the change freeze,
the Bank of England is canvassing support for an extra bank holiday on
December 31, 1999, a Friday, or even January 4, 2000, a Tuesday. A similar
proposal by the Security Industry Association in the United States was
rejected by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
-
- (10) On March 25, 1998, the Information
Technology Association of America (ITAA) released results of a new IndustryPulse
survey which indicates a substantial percentage of companies are already
starting to experience actual Y2K-related failures. Conducted in February,
the survey found 44% of respondents indicating their organizations have
experienced such failures under actual operating conditions and 67% reported
failures under test conditions. [http://www.itaa.org/softpr7.htm]
-
- (11) Recent case studies of computer-related
mini-disasters include the Union Pacific Railroad snafu and the Oxford
Health debacle.
-
- (12 ) According to the federal government's
fourth quarterly progress report through February 15, 1998, compiled by
the Office of Management and Budget, "The Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA) continues to be at significant risk of system failure. Although the
FAA has completed its assessments, it identified 101 additional mission-critical
systems since the last reporting period. Considering its slow progress,
the FAA needs to give significantly greater attention to contingency planning."
What are the alternatives if the air traffic control system malfunctions?
[http://www.cio.fed.gov/y2k4q.htm]
-
- (13) Only six countries have national
Y2K awareness campaigns. A recent World Bank survey found only 37 out of
128 borrowing member countries said they were aware of Y2K.
-
- (14 ) The total number of US federal
government mission-critical systems dropped 739-to 7,850 from 8,589-over
the three-month reporting period through February 15 because of reclassification.
The Department of Defense reduced its mission critical systems count to
2,915 from 3,143.
-
- (15) According to the latest Office
of Management and Budget progress report, all agencies claim that they
have active independent verification programs under way to assure that
systems are actually fixed.
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