- The greatest science fiction writer of
our time with a record of predicting the future with uncanny accuracy offers
his forecasts for the coming century. Man, he says, will land on Mars within
30 years, extra-terrestrial life will be detected soon after, and by 2095
space travel will be at the speed of light
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- Despite all claims to the contrary, no
one can predict the future, and I have always resisted all attempts to
label me a ''prophet,'' I prefer ''exrtapolator.''
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- What I have tried to do, at least in
my non-fiction, is outline possible ''futures'' at the same time pointing
out that totally unexpected inventions or events can make any forecasts
absurd after a very few years. The classic example is the statement in
the late 1940s by the then chairman of IBM that the world market for computers
was about five (or was it six?). I have more in my own office, and they
are still breeding like rabbits.
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- But perhaps I'm in no position to criticise
Thomas Watson Snr. In Transit of Earth (1971), I put the first Mars landings
in 1994: now we'll be lucky if we make it by 2010. On the other hand, when
Prelude to Space was published in 1951, I thought I was being widely optimistic
by suggesting a moon mission in 1978. Neil and Buzz beat me by almost a
decade.
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- Still, I take a modest pride in the fact
that communications satellites are placed exactly where I suggested in
1945, and that the name `Clarke Orbit' is now often used, if only because
it's easier to say than ``geostationary orbit.'' And the chapter `The Century
Syndrome' in my 1990 novel The Ghost from the Grand Banks, may well have
been the first account, outside the technical literature, of the now-dreaded
Millennium Bug its cause and its cure.
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- Even so, the chronology that follows
should be given with a ``Health Warning.'' Some of the events listed (particularly
the space missions) are already scheduled, and will occur on the actual
dates given, I believe all the other events could happen, although several,
I hope, will not.
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- In spite of the temptation, I have omitted
many interesting and all-too-possible disasters, because optimism about
the future is always desirable; it may help to create a self-fulfilling
prophecy.
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- Check me for accuracy - on December 31,
2100.
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- 2001 Jan 1: Next Millennium and Century
began.
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- Cassini spaceprobe (launched October
1997: arrived Saturn July 200) begins exploration of the planet's moons
and rings.
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- Galileo probe (launched October 1989)
continues surveying Jupiter and its moons. Life beneath the ice-covered
oceans of Europa appears increasingly likely.
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- 2002 The first commercial device producing
clean, safe power by low-temperature nuclear reactions goes on to market,
heralding the end of the Fossil-Fuel Age. Economic and geopolitical earthquakes
follow, and for their discovery of so-called ``Cold Fusion`` in 1989, given
five years to replace all fuel-burning engines by the new energy device.
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- The same year, Nasa's robot Mars Surveyor
(carrying Lander and Rover) is launched.
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- 2004 First (publicly admitted) human
clone.
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- 2005 First sample launched back to Earth
by mars Surveyor.
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- 2006 Last coal mine closed.
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- 2007 Nasa Next generation Space Telescope
(successor to the Hubble) launched.
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- 2008 On his 80th birthday July 28, the
film director Stanley Kubrick, who made '2001: A Space Odyssey' receives
a special Oscar for Lifetime Achievement.
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- 2009 A city in a Third World country
is devastated by the accidental explosion of an A-bomb in its armoury.
After a brief debate in the UN, all nuclear weapons are destroyed.
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- 2010 The first Quantum Generators (tapping
space energy) are developed. Available in portable and household units
from a few kilowatts upwards, they can produce electricity indefinitely.
Central power stations close down; the age of pylkons ends as grid systems
are dismantled.
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- In spite of ``Big Brother!`` protests,
electronic monitoring virtually removes professional criminals from society.
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- 2011 Largest living animal filmed: a
75-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench.
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- By a curious coincidence, later that
same year even larger marine creatures are discovered when the first robot
probes drill through the ice of Europa, and an entire now biota is revealed.
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- 2012 Aerospace-planes enter service.
The history of space travel has repeated that of aeronautics, although
more slowly, because the technical problems are so much greater. From Gagarin
to commercial space flight has taken twice as long as from the Wright Brothers
to the DC3.
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- 2013 Despite the understandable apprehensions
of the Palace, Prince Harry becomes the first member of the Royal family
to fly into space.
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- 2014 Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel
begins, by assembling and converting the giant Shuttle tanks which had
previously been allowed to fall back to Earth.
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- 2015 An inevitable by-product of the
Quantum Generator is complete control of matters at the atomic level. Thus
the old dream of alchemy is realised on a commercial scale, often with
surprising results. Within a few years, since they are more useful, lead
and copper cost twice as much as gold.
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- 2016 All existing currencies are abolished.
The mega-watt-hour becomes the unit of exchange.
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- 2017 December 16. On his 100th birthday,
Sir Arthur C. Clarke is one of the first guests in the Hilton Orbiter.
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- 2019 A major meteor impact occurs on
the North Polar icecap. There is no loss of human life, but the resulting
tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greenland and Canada.
The long-discussed ``Project Spaceguard,'' to identify and deflect any
potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, is finally activated.2020 Artificial
Intelligence (AI) reaches the human level. From now onwards there are two
intelligent spaces on Planet Earth, one evolving far more rapidly than
biology would ever permit. Interstellar probes carrying A1s are launched
towards the nearest stars.
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- 2021 The first humans land on Mars, and
have some unpleasant surprises.
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- 2023 Dinosaur fascimiles are cloned from
computer-generated DNA. Disney's ``Triassic Zoo`` opens in Florida. Despite
some unfortunate initial accidents, mini-raptors start replacing guard-dogs.
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- 2024 Infra-red signals are detected coming
from the centre of the Galaxy. They are obviously the product of a technologically
advanced civilisation, but all attempts to decipher them fail.
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- 2025 Neurological research finally leads
to an understanding of all the senses, and direct inputs become possible,
by-passing eyes, ears, skin etc. The inevitability result is the metal
`Braincap' of which the 20th century's Walkman was a primitive precursor.
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- Anyone wearing this helmet, fitting tightly
over the skull, can enter a whole universe of experience, real or imaginary
and even merge in real-time with other minds.
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- Apart from its use for entertainment
and vicarious adventure, the Braincap is a boon to doctors, who can now
experience their patients' symptoms (suitably attenuated). It also revolutionises
the legal profession; deliberately lying is impossible.
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- As the Braincap can only function properly
on a completely bald head, wig-making becomes a major industry.
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- 2040 The `Universal Replicator,' based
on nano-technology, is perfected; any object, however complex, can be created
- given the necessary raw material and the appropriate information matrix.
Diamonds or gourmet meals, can literally, be made from dirt.
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- As a result, agriculture and industry
are phased out, ending that recent invention in human history work! There
is an explosion in arts, entertainment and education.
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- Hunter-gathering societies are deliberately
recreated; huge areas of the planet, no longer needed for food production,
are allowed to revert to their original state. Young people can now discharge
their aggressive instincts by using cross-bows to stalk bit game, which
is robotic and frequently dangerous.
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- 2045 The totally self-contained, recycling,
mobile home (envisaged almost a century earlier by Buckminster Fuller)
is perfected. Any additional carbon needed for food synthesis is obtained
by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
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- 2050 `Escape from Utopia'. Bored by lie
in this peaceful and unexciting era, millions decided to use cryonic suspension
to emigrate into the future in search of adventure. Vast `hibernacula'
are established in the Antarctic, and in the regions of perpetual night
at the lunar poles.
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- 2057 October 4. Centennial of Sputnik
1. The dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans not only on Earth,
but on the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan and on orbit round Venus,
Neptune and Pluto.
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- 2061 The return of Halley's Comet; first-landing
on nucleus by humans. The sensational discovery of both dormant and active
life-forms vindicates Hoyle and Wickramasinghe's century-old hypothesis
that life is omni-present throughout space.
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- 2090 Large-scale burning of fossil fuels
is resumed to replace the carbon dioxide `mined' from the air and, hopefully,
to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.
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- 2095 The development of a true `Space
Drive' - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of spacetime
makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light.
The first human explorers set off to nearby star systems that robot probes
have already found promising.
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- 2100 History begins ...
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