-
-
- NEW YORK - It's everywhere
- in your homes, offices and on the street - and
- it's getting worse: doomsday debate.
-
- Along with chit chat about how to celebrate the Millennial
New Year,
- people " yes, sane, normal people " are genuinely
frightened that this may
- be the end of the world. See people's <#responsesresponses
from the
- streets of New York.
-
- And you can't blame them. To anyone who's read the paper
or watched a TV
- over the last couple of months, the signs are not good.
-
- Along with disasters like last week's uranium leak in
Japan, hurricanes
- Floyd and Gert have thrashed the Caribbean and Eastern
Seaboard.
- Earthquakes killed 14,000 in Turkey and 2,000 in Taiwan,
and left 60,000
- Athenians homeless. Also, much of Mexico shook last week.
It feels like no
- other year in living memory. So what is the truth?
-
- Are we, as most mainstream religions prophecy, facing
some kind of
- apocalyptic scenario?
-
- (For instance, the Bible's Book of Revelations, which
gives a blow by
- blow account of Christian-style Armageddon, states "There
was a great
- earthquake; and the sun became black as sacklock of hair"
" remember that
- total solar eclipse in Europe this August? " "a
fig tree casteth her
- untimely figs, when she is shaken of a mighty wind ...
Every mountain and
- island were moved out of their places.") The good
news is that the experts
- say we are reading way too much into natural phenomena.
-
- "If you believe in an end-time scenario, you know
that items x, y, z must
- take place. So, you look for items x, y, z so you can
see where you are in
- the scenario. It's not wacko stuff, this is logical thinking,"
says David
- Kessler, a researcher at the Center for Millennial Studies
at Boston
- University. "Things like earthquakes, hurricanes
and solar eclipses
- heighten that sense."
-
- Dr. Waverly Person, a geophysicist at the National Earthquake
Information
- Center in Denver, says " more comfortingly "
that the amount of big
- tremblers in the world have actually decreased over the
past 20 years.
-
- "We have been told that by many people, because
of increase in
- earthquakes, the world will end in 1999," Dr. Person
says with a laugh.
- "But they don't realize that we are behind what
we should be having" "
- about 20 quakes a year that measure 7.0 or more on the
Richter scale.
-
- The most recent quakes have gotten so much attention
in the media, he
- says, "because of so many deaths. If an earthquake
does not cause a lot of
- damage or death, it goes unnoticed, no matter the size
of the earthquake."
- The reason for the deaths, particularly in Turkey, is
that people have
- built residences and offices closer to fault lines in
recent years.
-
- OK. So what about the hurricanes, those "mighty
winds"? Floyd alone
- destroyed towns and caused $1.3 billion damage in North
Carolina, not to
- mention all those flooded streets in New Jersey and soupy
basements in
- Westchester.
-
- Well, the climatologists at the National Hurricane Center
aren't running
- around in a panic, says spokesman Frank Lepore.
-
- Yes, scientists are estimating there will be more tropical
storms and
- hurricanes along the Atlantic Ocean this season than
average. But that's
- due in part to the fact that we're in a La Niña
year, which simply means
- there are no opposing west winds to shift the storms.
-
- "We humans have such a finite perspective,"
Lepore says from Miami. "In
- the '70s and '80s, the rate was below average. Now we're
coming back to a
- normal high ... This is a hiccup in the cosmic scene."
-
- (In any event, Lepore pooh-poohs the idea of counting
hurricanes: "Look
- at 1992. It was a below-average year; we only had one
hurricane. That was
- Andrew, which did $30 billion in damage. So, what do
numbers mean?")
-
- Still, these disasters do give the more fanatic end-of-the-world
- scenarists a little more to go on. And the coming of
the new millennium,
- of course, "adds fuel to the fire," says Philip
Lamy, a sociology
- professor at Vermont's Castleton College and associate
of the Center for
- Millennial Studies.
-
- "Millennial movements tend to [flourish] in times
of rapid social
- change," Lemy says, such as the Industrial Revolution.
There's no doubt
- that with the population growth, environmental changes,
nuclear
- capabilities and leapfrogging technological advances,
we're in the midst
- of serious global change right now."
-
- He adds: "In 1030, we saw a lot more millennial
activity than 1000 "
- because that (1030) was the anniversary of the death
of Christ," he says.
- "2030 may see even more millennial activity."
-
- What New Yorkers Think
-
- "2000 is something that man has set, it's not anything
that God has
- decreed. I'm not worried, but my aunt has built a bunker
in her backyard,
- stashed it with food, water and rifles. She thinks it
could be the end of
- the world."
-
- " Annemieke Farrow, 21
- Wardrobe supervisor
- Manhattan
-
- "No. I think the whole millennium/Armageddon thing
is a direct result of
- general uneasiness about life. And with the news coverage,
it's resulted
- in this fear."
-
- " Mark Butler, 37
- Writer
- Manhattan
-
- "A lot of tragedies are happening; maybe it is
the end of the world. It's
- scary, but what can you do? We just keep praying. What
happens happens;
- there's nothing you can do about it."
-
- " Lynn Guerrero, 28
- Administrative assistant
- Brooklyn
-
- "Absolutely not. I know plenty of people who think
this could be the end,
- and it's just comical. It's to be ignored. It's just
the media attention
- on events that have always happened. Volcanoes and earthquakes
are nothing
- new."
-
- " Andrew Brady, 26
- Investing
- Manhattan
-
- "I would say yes. It's a little scary. I think
a lot of people feel that
- way. I guess a lot of us are nervous."
-
- " Lisa Vega, 35
- Systems administrator
- Staten Island
-
- "No. The world has always had a lot of natural
disasters happen. I was
- talking to one guy, he said the end is coming because
of all these
- disasters. These people need a reason to confirm their
beliefs so when
- these things happen, it fits right in."
-
- " Claude Phillips, 38
- Computer consultant
- Newark, N.J.
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