- Hi, Jeff...
-
- I am including 2 .pdf files that have graphs that project
the SARS epidemic growth between March 17, 2003 to June 30, 2003. The
graphs show that by the end of June, assuming that the disease continues
to grow in a manner similiar to how it has grown between March 17, 2003
to April 1, 2003, there will be slightly over 15,000 cases of SARS worldwide
by June 30, 2003, and there will have been about 550 people that will have
died from SARS by June 30, 2003. I am assuming that the disease growth
is following a linear model (this is where the numbers come from in the
charts). If, however, the disease really breaks out and follows a logarithmic/exponential
model, these numbers will be lower than actual, particularly after June
3, 2003. Should the actual number of cases start to steadily fall below
the predicted number of cases, this effect could be considered as a measure
of how disease-prevention efforts worldwide are "stemming the tide."
I send these charts to you to share, if you wish, with your readers so
to have some idea of the projected increase and subsequent possible impact
of SARS cases throughout the world day-by-day from March 17, 2003 until
June 30, 2003. The ADOBE .pdf files have been scanned and are free of
virus infection.
-
-
- Bob Lee
- AIDS: An Explosion of the Biological Time Bomb?
- http://www.bhc.edu/eastcampus/leeb/aids/index.html
Projected_SARS_Death_Toll.pdf
SARS_Infection_Projections.pdf
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